Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 11.6 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. Raiders led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
73%
Wests Tigers
27%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 293-point ELO rating advantage (1671 vs 1378). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Raiders by 11.6 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.26
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Line / Spread
Raiders -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W L | 28.8 |
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 21.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Raiders
23.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
12.8
Raiders
-2.2
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1695
Raiders
1592
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.2
Raiders
4.8
Wests Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Raiders predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +11.6
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