# Raiders v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 24 – 10 Wests Tigers

_Raiders ransack Wests Tigers._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 73% / Wests Tigers 27% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 30 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Jed Stuart (19' 1st Tipped ⚡), Corey Horsburgh (31'), Simi Sasagi (47' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Strange (75' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Jahream Bula (27' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (36' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 73% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 24–10 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 26 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At the break it was 12-10, Raiders in front but Wests Tigers very much in it. Jeral Skelton's try in the 36th minute had the visitors within two, and anyone tuning in at half-time could have been forgiven for thinking this one was heading down to the wire.

It didn't. Simi Sasagi crossed in the 46th minute to push the lead to six, and from there Wests Tigers never got the margin back under single figures. Ethan Strange put the finishing touch on it in the 75th, and Raiders ran out 24-10 winners at GIO Stadium.

The first half was a genuine arm wrestle, four tries in the space of 18 minutes and the lead changing hands twice. Jed Stuart got Raiders going in the 18th, Jahream Bula hit back for Wests Tigers eight minutes later, Corey Horsburgh restored the buffer, Skelton pegged it back again. Then the game went quiet for a full ten minutes either side of the break, and when it resumed, only one side found the tryline again.

The stat sheet explains why. Raiders finished with 54% of the ball and turned it into four line breaks to two, backed up by 1,539 run metres and 497 post-contact metres to the Tigers' 1,405 and 455. That's not a landslide in the collision, but it's a consistent edge, the sort that lets a team like Raiders' halves combo, rated 1380 against Wests Tigers' 1133 coming in, dictate when and where the ball got played.

Discipline mattered too. Raiders conceded just 5 penalties to the Tigers' 9, which is a decent chunk of extra field position and repeat sets handed over for nothing. Wests Tigers actually edged the effective tackle percentage, 88.7% to 85.9%, and won the tackle break count 34 to 33, so it wasn't as if they were bullied off the park defensively. They just gave away too many cheap ones in attack to build any real pressure.

For Wests Tigers, Bula and Skelton did what they could, a try apiece to keep the margin honest into the second half, and the completion rate gap was negligible, 75% to 77%. The forward pack ratings had Raiders ahead 1152 to 1038 pre-game, and over 80 minutes that gap showed up more in field position than in raw go-forward, given the Tigers actually out-offloaded them 9 to 8.

Alphr's model had Raiders at 73% to win, expecting them by 11.6 points with a combined total of 39. The actual margin came in at 14, the total at 34. Both close enough to call it a sharp read, and the model landed on the right side of the 11.5-point line and the under on 50.5 total points. Not a perfect night, 7 from 16 on the finer detail, but the shape of the result, Raiders through their halves and discipline grinding out a home win, was exactly what the numbers pointed to beforehand.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,539** | Run metres | 1,405 |
| **497** | Post-contact metres | 455 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| 85.9% | Effective tackle % | **88.7%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 410 | Kick metres | **413** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 11.6 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. Raiders led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 7/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 11.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 18' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 30' Try — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 36' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 75' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.26 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 72.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 12 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 73% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 293 ELO points clear, 1671 to 1378. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Wests Tigers.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 11.6, with the two sides combining for about 39. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 56-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 1st against Wests Tigers 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 56-10 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 1st · Wests Tigers 11th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 1695.0m | Run Metres | 1592.2m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 352.8 | Tackles | 323.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 28.8 |
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Raiders | 56 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 33 – 14 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 16 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 48 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.05 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 16th there (1.59 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.45/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.59/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.14/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.09/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.05/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.82/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 6 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 166m/g | 227m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 83.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 48 | 51 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 678m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 15 | 9 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 599m/g | 513m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.43) +42% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.69) +35% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.44) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 9 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 10/22g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 10 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/48g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 12 in 22g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 2/3g | 8/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/21g | 30/130g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/55g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 10/92g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 23/59g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/14g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/43g | 4% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 6 in 21g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/30g | 4% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 11 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 3/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Murray | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1671 · Wests Tigers 1378 · ELO difference: 293 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1152 (best 1338) | 1038 (best 1297) | Raiders +114 |
| Backs | 1025 (best 1189) | 1086 (best 1200) | Wests Tigers +60 |
| Halves | 1380 (best 1380) | 1133 (best 1133) | Raiders +246 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1003 | Raiders +197 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Raiders predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)