NRL | Round 26

alphr.com.au

CAN
Raiders
VS
WST
Wests Tigers
GIO STADIUM, CANBERRA • SATURDAY 30 AUG, 3:00 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Raiders by 11.6 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34 — within 5 points. Raiders led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

73%RaidersFavourite

Raiders

73%

Wests Tigers

27%

AI Match Overview

Raiders are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 293-point ELO rating advantage (1671 vs 1378). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Raiders by 11.6 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.26

Winner ✓

Edge

-9.8%

Line / Spread

Raiders -11.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-9.8%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+30.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Raiders
WWWWL
28.8
Wests Tigers
WWWLL
21.0

Avg Conceded

16.0

Raiders

23.2

Wests Tigers

Avg Margin

12.8

Raiders

-2.2

Wests Tigers

Run Metres

1695

Raiders

1592

Wests Tigers

Line Breaks

6.2

Raiders

4.8

Wests Tigers

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 4-1
Jun 2025CAN 16 - 12 WST
Jun 2024CAN 24 - 48 WST
Mar 2024CAN 32 - 12 WST
Aug 2023CAN 22 - 18 WST
Jun 2023CAN 20 - 19 WST
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN
1671Overall1378
WST
ELO difference: +293 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1152Forwards1038
Best: 1338CAN +114Best: 1297
1025Backs1086
Best: 1189WST +60Best: 1200
1380Halves1133
Best: 1380CAN +246Best: 1133
1200Hooker1003
CAN +197

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN
Stat
WST
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
28.8pts
Avg Score
21.0pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
23.2pts
12.8pts
Avg Margin
-2.2pts
1695.0m
Run Metres
1592.2m
6.2
Line Breaks
4.8
352.8
Tackles
323.2
9.8
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Raiders
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

73%

Raiders predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +11.6

3/3 match predictions correct
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