AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Sea Eagles have a 39% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 55% prediction for Dragons — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 64 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 45. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
55%
Sea Eagles
45%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Dragons ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. Sea Eagles carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1436 vs 1340). Recent form favours Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Dragons by 3.4 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.95
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.5%
Line / Spread
Dragons +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.5%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WWLLL | 16.4 |
Sea Eagles | WLLLL | 18.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Dragons
29.2
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-7.2
Dragons
-11.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1651
Dragons
1517
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.6
Dragons
4.0
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Sea Eagles hold a 8‑point edge: 14W–22L (39%) vs Dragons's 10W–22L (31%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1436 vs 1340), but the market favours Dragons (@1.95).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Dragons predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +3.4
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