# Dragons v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 24 – 40 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles take flight against Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 55% / Sea Eagles 45% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 30 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Lyhkan King-Togia (9'), Jacob Liddle (48' Tipped ⚡), Christian Tuipulotu (52' Tipped ⚡), Emre Guler (77') · Sea Eagles: Corey Waddell (4' 1st), Tolutau Koula (20' Tipped ⚡), Daly Cherry-Evans (22'), Aaron Schoupp (40'), Corey Waddell (57' 1st), Tommy Talau (65'), Caleb Navale (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 55% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 24–40 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 26 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles led 22-6 at Jubilee Stadium before the Dragons had properly found their feet, and a scoreboard like that against a backline rated 1062 to 871 was always going to be hard work to chase down.

The gap opened fast. Corey Waddell got Manly moving inside four minutes, and though Lyhkan King-Togia hit back for the Dragons, the response lasted about ten minutes. Tolutau Koula and Daly Cherry-Evans crossed either side of the twenty minute mark to push it to 16-6, and Aaron Schoupp added another right on the stroke of half-time. By the break it was 22-6 and the Dragons were staring at a hole built entirely in one half.

Give the Dragons credit for not folding. Jacob Liddle and Christian Tuipulotu scored either side of the fifty minute mark to drag it back to 16-22, and suddenly a two-score game looked live again. That's about as close as it got. Waddell's second, a 57th minute try, restored the buffer, and Tommy Talau's four-pointer at the 64 minute mark pushed it out to 32-18. Emre Guler's late try and a penalty try to Caleb Navale in the 79th minute just filled out the final margin.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard was already saying. Sea Eagles ran for 2,107 metres to the Dragons' 1,695, broke the line nine times to four, and racked up 686 post-contact metres to 605. That's a forward pack rated level with the Dragons' pre-match (1046 apiece) finding an extra gear once the ball got loose, and a backline built to be the difference showing up exactly where it mattered.

Oddly enough, the Dragons were the tidier side with ball in hand. They completed at 77 per cent, same as Manly, but coughed up only 11 errors to the Sea Eagles' 12, and made fewer missed tackles at 23 to 18 in the effective tackle column, wait, that one actually favoured Manly at 89.9 per cent against the Dragons' 93.0. Discipline was even enough, four penalties to five, and the Dragons controlled the air with 606 kicking metres to 464. None of it mattered much when the other side is scoring six tries to four and winning the collisions.

Manly's halves and hooker combination, rated above the Dragons' pre-match across the board, did what the ratings suggested they might. Cherry-Evans got on the board himself, and with Waddell grabbing a brace either side of it, the spine did enough early damage that the Dragons' second-half fightback was always chasing shadows.

The model had this one wrong, and wrong by a fair margin. It gave the Dragons 55 per cent and predicted them to win by 3.4 points on a combined total of 45. Instead Manly won by 16 on a total of 64, nineteen points higher than forecast. Three from sixteen on this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was filed firmly under misses.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Sea Eagles | 22 | 18 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | 77% |
| 1,695 | Run metres | **2,107** |
| 605 | Post-contact metres | **686** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **23** |
| **10** | Offloads | 6 |
| **93.0%** | Effective tackle % | 89.9% |
| 23 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **606** | Kick metres | 464 |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 55% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 64 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 41% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 9' Try — Lyhkan King-Togia (Dragons) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 21' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 39' Try — Aaron Schoupp (Sea Eagles) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 41' Sin Bin — Toafofoa Sipley (Sea Eagles) — 6-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 47' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 52' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 16-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 57' Try — Corey Waddell (Sea Eagles) — 18-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 64' Try — Tommy Talau (Sea Eagles) — 18-32 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 77' Try — Emre Guler (Dragons) — 22-34 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Penalty Try — Caleb Navale (Sea Eagles) — 24-38 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.95 (edge +4.5%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 55%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Sea Eagles sit 96 ELO points clear, 1436 to 1340, so the model is backing Dragons against the ratings gap. Form leans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Sea Eagles.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Dragons by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dragons 13th against Sea Eagles 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Sea Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-10 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 13th · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10W–25L | 29% |
| Sea Eagles | 17W–24L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 12-point edge: 17W–24L (41%) vs Dragons's 10W–25L (29%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's +0.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 18.0pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | -11.2pts |
| 1651.0m | Run Metres | 1517.0m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 350.4 | Tackles | 334.8 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 16.4 |
| Sea Eagles | 1W–4L | 18.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R6 | Dragons | 18 – 28 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R7 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R4 | Dragons | 20 – 12 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 5th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 13th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.32/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.95/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.77/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 17 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 154m/g | 190m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 55 | 56 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 732m/g | 717m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.3% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 13 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 490m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.25) +10% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.43) +7%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.26) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.44) +39% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.43) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 7 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/17g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·3·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Hayden Buchanan | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 6/5g | 2/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 4% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Halangahu | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 2/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Hame Sele | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 16 in 21g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 4 | Tommy Talau | CE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/16g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 4' 57' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Schoupp | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 15 | Caleb Navale | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1436 vs 1340), but the market favours Dragons (@1.95). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1340 · Sea Eagles 1436 · ELO difference: 96 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1046 (best 1248) | 1046 (best 1251) | Sea Eagles +1 |
| Backs | 871 (best 976) | 1062 (best 1205) | Sea Eagles +191 |
| Halves | 1215 (best 1215) | 1335 (best 1335) | Sea Eagles +120 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1075 | Dragons +125 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Dragons predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)