# Dolphins v Titans — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 36 – 30 Titans

_Dolphins make a splash against Titans in a tight one._

Half time: 18 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 59% / Titans 41% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 31 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Trai Fuller (2' 1st), Tevita Naufahu (9'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (11' Tipped ⚡), Tevita Naufahu (46'), Isaiya Katoa (48'), Kodi Nikorima (67') · Titans: Brian Kelly (29'), Jaylan De Groot (36' Tipped ⚡), Kieran Foran (39'), AJ Brimson (60'), Jayden Campbell (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 59% | Won |
| Titans | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 36–30 Titans in NRL Round 26 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen-all at the break at Suncorp Stadium, and the Dolphins had already blown a 16-0 lead to get there. Fuller, Naufahu and Tabuai-Fidow had the Titans down and out inside eleven minutes, then Brian Kelly, Jaylan De Groot and Kieran Foran hauled it back level by the 39th. A laugher looked like turning into a genuine contest, and it did, just not in the direction the first quarter suggested.

The second half belonged to Naufahu and Katoa. Naufahu's second try at the 46th put the Dolphins back in front, Katoa followed it up two minutes later, and suddenly it was 28-18 and the Titans were chasing again. AJ Brimson clawed one back at the 60th, Kodi Nikorima answered at the 66th, Jayden Campbell got the Titans within eight at the 72nd, and that's how it stayed. Dolphins 36, Titans 30. Seven tries each half were on the table by full time, split five to five between the sides, but the Dolphins found theirs in better spots.

The stat sheet tells you why the Dolphins were the ones doing the answering. They finished with 52% of the ball and completed at 81% against the Titans' 77%, which in a game with this many line breaks and this much footy played is no small thing. Nine errors to fourteen is a hefty gap, and it meant the Dolphins simply got more cracks at it. Eight line breaks to five backs that up. When you're building field position and completing sets, the tries tend to follow.

The Titans had their own case to make. They out-muscled the Dolphins for post-contact metres, 588 to 481, and edged the tackle-break count 32 to 30, with 10 offloads to 9. That's a forward pack getting go-forward after the tackle, and it fits the pre-match numbers, Titans forwards rated only just behind Dolphins' at 1015 to 1021 but their halves in at 1121 against 936, a gap that should have told against them more than it did. Effective tackle percentage was a coin toss, 88.5 to 88.4, so this wasn't decided in the ruck or the defensive line. It was decided with ball in hand and at the discipline count, one penalty conceded by the Dolphins to the Titans' two.

Form lines had the Titans grinding out more metres per game coming in, 1706.8 to 1591.8, and conceding fewer points on average, 30.4 to the Dolphins' worrying 40.4. None of that showed up when it counted. The Dolphins' hooker rating, 1200 to the Titans' 1146, and Nikorima's late try to seal it, suggest that edge around the ruck mattered more than the ledger suggested it would.

Alphr's model had Dolphins winning at 59% and picked the margin almost to the point, 8.9 predicted against 6 actual. It undercooked the total badly though, tipping 46 combined points for a game that produced 66. Four from sixteen on the finer detail isn't a number to boast about, but the shape of the result, Dolphins by single figures in a shootout, was exactly what the model saw coming. Dolphins covered the 5.5-point line. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Titans | 18 | 12 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,753** | Run metres | 1,677 |
| 481 | Post-contact metres | **588** |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| 88.4% | Effective tackle % | **88.5%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| **9** | Errors | 14 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| **614** | Kick metres | 580 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 59% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 8.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 4/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 23 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Dolphins have a 57% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Trai Fuller (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 9' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 11' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 28' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 35' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 39' Try — Kieran Foran (Titans) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — 28-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 60' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 30-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 66' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 34-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 36-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.65 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 59%, but Titans stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 189 ELO points clear, 1431 to 1242. Form leans Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Dolphins by 8.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 9th against Titans 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 7 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 24-20 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 9th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 8W–6L | 57% |
| Titans | 10W–22L | 31% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Dolphins have won 8 of 14 games (57%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 32 (31%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Titans get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.6pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 40.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| -13.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1591.8m | Run Metres | 1706.8m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 331.2 | Tackles | 355.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 26.6 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Titans | 20 – 24 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R2 | Dolphins | 18 – 14 | Titans |
| 2025 | R5 | Titans | 10 – 36 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R21 | Dolphins | 14 – 21 | Titans |
| 2024 | R4 | Titans | 14 – 30 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 13th there (1.82 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 14th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 12th) | 1.23/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 9th) | 1.14/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.27/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 14 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 219m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 59 | 49 · 69 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 760m/g | 680m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.9% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 16 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 486m/g | 550m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.31/g (lg 0.17) +82% · Fullbacks 0.69/g (lg 0.42) +64% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.44) +45%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.69) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 29% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 22g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 31/73g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 9 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 12/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | CE | 18 in 19g | 11/10g (0·1·2·1·4·2·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 24/28g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 9' 46' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 22/80g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/26g | 4% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 3/29g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 2/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 7/26g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 6/38g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/26g | 6% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/12g | 30% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 9/20g | 22% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 11 in 16g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/19g | 6% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/7g | 28% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 9 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 5/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 4/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Keano Kini | INT | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1431 · Titans 1242 · ELO difference: 189 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1021 (best 1184) | 1015 (best 1242) | Dolphins +7 |
| Backs | 938 (best 1083) | 982 (best 1127) | Titans +44 |
| Halves | 936 (best 936) | 1121 (best 1121) | Titans +186 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1146 | Dolphins +54 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)