Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 59% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 8.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 23 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Dolphins have a 50% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
59%
Titans
41%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dolphins carry a 189-point ELO rating advantage (1431 vs 1242). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 8.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.8%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.8%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+23.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W L L L | 26.6 |
Titans | W L L L L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
40.4
Dolphins
30.4
Titans
Avg Margin
-13.8
Dolphins
-8.8
Titans
Run Metres
1592
Dolphins
1707
Titans
Line Breaks
6.8
Dolphins
4.6
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Dolphins have won 6 of 12 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 32 (31%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +8.9
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