Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 5.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 68 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 24 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
34%
Broncos
66%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency, but Broncos counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 133-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1421). The margin model predicts Broncos by 5.4 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Broncos +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 33.2 |
Avg Conceded
23.0
Cowboys
19.6
Broncos
Avg Margin
5.0
Cowboys
13.6
Broncos
Run Metres
1704
Cowboys
1710
Broncos
Line Breaks
4.2
Cowboys
6.4
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 12-point edge: 29W–22L (57%) vs Cowboys's 19W–23L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Cowboys get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Broncos predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -5.4
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