# Cowboys v Broncos — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 30 – 38 Broncos

_Broncos buck off Cowboys._

Half time: 18 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 34% / Broncos 66% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 30 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Semi Valemei (15'), Reece Robson (19'), Jake Clifford (34'), Semi Valemei (47'), Braidon Burns (75' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Gehamat Shibasaki (3' 1st), Kotoni Staggs (10' Tipped ⚡), Josiah Karapani (38' Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (40' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (50' 1st), Billy Walters (58'), Payne Haas (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 66% | Won |
| Cowboys | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 30–38 Broncos in NRL Round 26 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos beat Cowboys 38-30 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, and the scoreline undersells how much of the game North Queensland actually had. The Cowboys held 54% of possession, completed at 76% to the Broncos' 69%, and made only 13 errors to Brisbane's 17. By the numbers that usually decide these things, Cowboys were the better-organised side with the ball. They still lost by eight.

The reason sits in two columns that matter more than territory: line breaks and tackle breaks. Brisbane cracked the line 11 times to the Cowboys' 4, and busted 49 tackles compared to North Queensland's 32. You can hold the ball all night, but if the other mob keeps running through your line, none of that possession counts for much.

The scoreboard swung early and often. Gehamat Shibasaki opened it inside two minutes, and after Braidon Burns was sin-binned in the 6th minute, Kotoni Staggs made the Cowboys pay to put Brisbane out 0-10 by the 9th. North Queensland hit back through Semi Valemei in the 14th and Reece Robson in the 18th to trail just 10-12, then Jake Clifford's try in the 34th minute actually shoved the home side in front, 16-12. It lasted three minutes. Josiah Karapani scored in the 37th and Reece Walsh followed in the 39th, and the Broncos went to the sheds up 22-18.

The second half followed the same script: Cowboys threaten, Broncos answer. Valemei's second try levelled things at 22-22 in the 46th minute, but Brisbane responded with the passage that decided the match. Shibasaki's second try in the 49th, Billy Walters in the 57th and Payne Haas in the 69th put together a run of three unanswered tries that took the game from level to out of reach. Burns scored a consolation for the Cowboys in the 75th, but by then the damage was done.

The forward numbers tell the same story from a different angle. Broncos ran for 1,832 metres to the Cowboys' 1,767 and made 578 post-contact metres to North Queensland's 524, grinding out extra territory after first contact all night. Cowboys were actually the more porous defensive side, missing 49 tackles to Brisbane's 32, and their effective tackle percentage sat at 81.8% against the Broncos' 85.7%. North Queensland did offload more, 16 to 12, which explains where some of that extra possession came from, but it never translated into points at the rate it needed to.

Discipline barely factored either way. Cowboys conceded just 2 penalties to the Broncos' 5, and kicking metres were close, 487 to 471 in the home side's favour. None of it moved the contest.

Alphr's model had Broncos as 5.4-point favourites and picked them at 66% to win, with a combined score of 43. The Broncos covered the 5.5-point line and won by 8, close enough on margin, but the actual total blew out to 68 points, 25 more than projected. On a night the Cowboys did plenty right without ever getting reward for it, that gap between the numbers and the scoreboard was the real story.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Broncos | 22 | 16 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **76%** | Completion rate | 69% |
| 1,767 | Run metres | **1,832** |
| 524 | Post-contact metres | **578** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **49** |
| **16** | Offloads | 12 |
| 81.8% | Effective tackle % | **85.7%** |
| 49 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| **13** | Errors | 17 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **487** | Kick metres | 471 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 5.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 68 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 6/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 6' Sin Bin — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 9' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 14' Try — Semi Valemei (Cowboys) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 18' Try — Reece Robson (Cowboys) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +13 pts
- 34' Try — Jake Clifford (Cowboys) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 39' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Semi Valemei (Cowboys) — 22-22 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 24-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 57' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 24-30 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Payne Haas (Broncos) — 24-36 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 28-38 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 65.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 66% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 133 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1421.

On paper Cowboys shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Broncos, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Broncos by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Broncos to win, not to win big.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 18-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Broncos 5.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 12th against Broncos 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 4 · Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 18-10 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 12th · Broncos 5th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Broncos 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 19W–25L | 43% |
| Broncos | 29W–22L | 57% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 14-point edge: 29W–22L (57%) vs Cowboys's 19W–25L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.6pts |
| 1704.2m | Run Metres | 1710.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 346.0 | Tackles | 327.0 |
| 13.2 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–2L | 28.0 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Cowboys | 18 – 10 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R6 | Broncos | 31 – 35 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R3 | Broncos | 26 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R23 | Cowboys | 18 – 42 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R4 | Broncos | 38 – 12 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Shibasaki, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.04/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.3/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.65/g (def 9th) | 1.86/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.41/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.48/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.18/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 123m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 63 | 65 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 751m/g | 695m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16/g | 19.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.4% | 79.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 23 | 10 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 457m/g | 593m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.69) +7% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 11 in 23g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/11g | 22/67g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 9/11g | 34% | — | 🏉 15' 47' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 14 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 7/17g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 2/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 8/27g | 16% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 22/51g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/22g | 3/64g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 18/65g | 8% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/28g | 2/50g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 9 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 27/41g | 40% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/42g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 2/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 9 in 19g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 7/12g | 3/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 13 in 21g | 7/10g (0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 3' 50' |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Billy Walters | 5/8 | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/30g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1421 · Broncos 1554 · ELO difference: 133 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1045 (best 1261) | 1017 (best 1338) | Cowboys +28 |
| Backs | 1044 (best 1200) | 1204 (best 1206) | Broncos +160 |
| Halves | 1137 (best 1137) | 1086 (best 1086) | Cowboys +51 |
| Hooker | 894 | 821 | Cowboys +74 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)