# Bulldogs v Panthers — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 28 – 4 Panthers

_Bulldogs let the dogs loose on Panthers._

Half time: 10 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 74% / Panthers 26% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 28 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Lachlan Galvin (17' 1st), Jacob Preston (34'), Jacob Preston (47'), Matt Burton (54'), Jacob Preston (67') · Panthers: Paul Alamoti (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 74% | Won |
| Panthers | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 28–4 Panthers in NRL Round 26 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs led from the 16th minute and never gave the Panthers a sniff of it. Lachlan Galvin crossed to open the scoring and make it 4-0, and by half-time the margin sat at 10-0. From there it was a matter of when, not if, the gap became unbridgeable.

Jacob Preston made sure of that. His first try in the 33rd minute stretched it to 8-0, his second at the 47th made it 14-0, and by the time he grabbed his third in the 67th the score read 26-4. Three tries from one forward, with Matt Burton chiming in at the 54th to push it to 20-0. Paul Alamoti's try for Penrith in the 57th minute was the only response the visitors could muster, and it arrived four minutes after they'd already shipped a two-score cushion they were never going to claw back.

The Zac Lipowicz sin bin at the 22nd minute, with the scoreline still at 4-0, mattered more than it looked at the time. Down a man for ten minutes while already chasing, Penrith had no room to find their footing, and the Bulldogs used the numbers advantage to push the margin to 8-0 by the half-hour mark.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard was saying. Bulldogs ran 1,903 metres to 1,150, a gap of more than 750 metres that shows up directly in the 10 line breaks they scored against just 4 for Penrith. Post-contact metres told the same story: 594 to 399, the Bulldogs forward pack simply harder to stop once contact was made. That lines up with the pre-match numbers, where Bulldogs forwards rated at 976 against Penrith's 858.

Where it really got out of hand was the halves. Bulldogs went in rated at 1177 to Penrith's 627, close to double, and a scoreline built on a lone Panthers try against five from the home side is exactly what that kind of gap produces. Add a hooker rating of 1012 to 626 and the platform Penrith needed to compete around the ruck simply wasn't there.

Defensively, Penrith missed 44 tackles to the Bulldogs' 31, and that leakiness is where the tries kept coming from. Their completion rate of 75% against 81%, and 16 errors to 11, meant they were forever handing back field position they couldn't afford to give up given they were already trailing. Penrith's form coming in had them at 3 wins from their last five with an average margin of plus 13.2, considerably the stronger recent record on paper. None of it showed up here.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs favourites at 74% and picked the right side of the ledger, but the margin call of 11.5 points undersold this one badly. The final gap was 24. The model predicted a combined total of 47 points; the game produced 32. Bulldogs covered the 4.5-point line with plenty to spare, and finished the day 3 from 16 on this match, a reminder that picking the winner and pricing the blowout are two very different jobs.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Panthers | 0 | 4 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,903** | Run metres | 1,150 |
| **594** | Post-contact metres | 399 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| 85.6% | Effective tackle % | **86.1%** |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **11** | Errors | 16 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 395 | Kick metres | **420** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 32 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 47. Bulldogs led 10–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 3/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 18 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Sin Bin — Zac Lipowicz (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 33' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 47' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 54' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.40 (edge -18.1%) — model probability 73.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 32.5 @ $1.91 (edge +35.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 12 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 74% to see off Panthers. The ratings say otherwise: Panthers sit 63 ELO points clear, 1597 to 1534, so the model is backing Bulldogs against the ratings gap. Form leans Panthers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Bulldogs.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 11.5, with the two sides combining for about 47. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 3rd against Panthers 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 24-10 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 3rd · Panthers 7th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 5W–3L | 63% |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Bulldogs 5W–3L (63%) and Panthers 3W–2L (60%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Panthers).

Panthers get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -2.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1508.8m | Run Metres | 1965.2m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 333.4 | Tackles | 393.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 22.8 |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Panthers | 24 – 10 | Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R6 | Bulldogs | 32 – 16 | Panthers |
| 2025 | SF | Bulldogs | 26 – 46 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R17 | Panthers | 8 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R10 | Panthers | 16 – 10 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 4th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Alamoti, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.45/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.55/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.23/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 42 | 54 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 768m/g | 805m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 13 | 15 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 439m/g | 504m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.44) -7% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.43) -9%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.69) +4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 8/28g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/19g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 13/24g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 13/33g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 13/33g | 26% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.75 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Josh Curran | 2R | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/21g | 34% | — | 🏉 34' 47' 67' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 8/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/10g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Reed Mahoney | INT | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 5/45g | 12% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daine Laurie | FB | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Jesse McLean | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Sione Fonua | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | David Fale | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 9 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Luron Patea | PR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | HK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Austin Dias | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Mavrik Geyer | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Matthew Eisenhuth | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Preston Riki | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Riley Price | INT | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1534 · Panthers 1597 · ELO difference: 63 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 976 (best 1187) | 858 (best 1043) | Bulldogs +117 |
| Backs | 966 (best 1071) | 929 (best 1016) | Bulldogs +37 |
| Halves | 1177 (best 1177) | 627 (best 627) | Bulldogs +550 |
| Hooker | 1012 | 626 | Bulldogs +386 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)