Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 32 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 47. Bulldogs led 10–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 18 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 75% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Bulldogs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
74%
Panthers
26%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Panthers. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Panthers carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1597 vs 1534). Recent form favours Panthers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 11.5 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @2.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.1%
Total Points
Over 32.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+35.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W L L L | 22.8 |
Panthers | W W W L L | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Bulldogs
16.4
Panthers
Avg Margin
3.2
Bulldogs
13.2
Panthers
Run Metres
1509
Bulldogs
1965
Panthers
Line Breaks
6.6
Bulldogs
5.8
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Panthers have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 4 from 7 (57%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Panthers).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Panthers get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -1.9.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +11.5
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