Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 53% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. Wests Tigers led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
47%
Sea Eagles
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sea Eagles a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate, but Sea Eagles counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Sea Eagles carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1418 vs 1369). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.51
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.7%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 19.0 |
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 13.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Wests Tigers
23.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-7.4
Wests Tigers
-10.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1504
Wests Tigers
1477
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.8
Wests Tigers
3.4
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Wests Tigers 18W–22L (45%) and Sea Eagles 16W–22L (42%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.7
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