# Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 26 – 12 Sea Eagles

_Wests Tigers hunt down Sea Eagles._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 47% / Sea Eagles 53% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 17 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Adam Doueihi (10' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (33' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (54'), Taylan May (61') · Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matthew Lodge (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 53% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 26–12 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 24 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles had the board first. Tolutau Koula scored inside the opening minute, no build-up required, and Wests Tigers found themselves chasing a 0-4 deficit before some fans had found their seats. That's the kind of start that should rattle a side chasing form, and for about ten minutes it looked like it might.

Adam Doueihi settled things down, crossing in the 10th minute to make it 4-6. Wests Tigers then took the lead for good in the 32nd through Jeral Skelton, going into the sheds up 12-6. Not a big buffer, but a real one, built on the sort of platform the stat sheet explains well: 57% possession, a completion rate of 77% against Sea Eagles's 66%, and just 11 errors to Sea Eagles's 16. When one side is holding the ball and looking after it and the other isn't, the scoreboard tends to agree eventually.

The second half is where it stopped being a contest. Sunia Turuva scored in the 53rd to push it to 16-6, then Taylan May followed in the 61st to make it 22-6. Two tries in eight minutes turned a manageable gap into a rout, and Matthew Lodge's late try for Sea Eagles in the 78th was never going to be more than scoreboard tidying.

The forward pack ratings had Sea Eagles ahead coming in, 943 to 905, but it didn't show up where it usually would. Wests Tigers won the collision battle anyway, banking 577 post-contact metres and 1,788 run metres to Sea Eagles's 1,435. Six line breaks to three and 44 tackle breaks to 37 tell the same story from a different angle: Wests Tigers kept finding grass, Sea Eagles kept finding traffic.

Where Wests Tigers really had the edge was in the halves, rated 1211 against Sea Eagles's 974 pre-match, and that gap showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: sharper decisions, better kicks, 576 kicking metres worth of territorial control. Sea Eagles's defence had actually been rated stronger overall, but on the day they missed 44 tackles to Wests Tigers's 37, and that leak is what let four separate players cross for the home side.

Sea Eagles weren't hopeless. Their effective tackle percentage, 86.7% to 85.1%, was marginally better, and Koula's early try showed they could hurt Wests Tigers in broken play. But form coming in had them at 2 wins from their last 5 with an average margin of minus 10, and this result sits right in that pattern.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles as 53% favourites and picked them to win by 1.7 points on a combined total of 43. Wests Tigers won by 14 instead, though the total landed close, 38 points against a predicted 43, and the under 48.5 call cashed. The margin read was a clear miss. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 66% |
| **1,788** | Run metres | 1,435 |
| **577** | Post-contact metres | 387 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 37 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| 85.1% | Effective tackle % | **86.7%** |
| **37** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **11** | Errors | 16 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **576** | Kick metres | 474 |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 53% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. Wests Tigers led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 0' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 10' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 32' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 53' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 61' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Try — Matthew Lodge (Sea Eagles) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.51 (edge -5.7%) — model probability 53.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wests Tigers and Sea Eagles. The model can't split them, landing on Sea Eagles at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 49 ELO points clear, 1418 to 1369. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Wests Tigers shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says ELO Difference and Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Sea Eagles have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 46-18 in 2026 Round 11.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 12th against Sea Eagles 10th.

Wests Tigers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Sea Eagles 8 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 46-18 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 12th · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Rest gap | Wests Tigers 14d · Sea Eagles 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 18W–22L | 45% |
| Sea Eagles | 17W–24L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Wests Tigers 18W–22L (45%) and Sea Eagles 17W–24L (41%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Wests Tigers's -0.9. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 13.6pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -7.4pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1504.2m | Run Metres | 1476.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 329.8 | Tackles | 336.8 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 19.0 |
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 13.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 46 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R17 | Sea Eagles | 28 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 34 – 26 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 54 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 16 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 8th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: To'a, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) | 1.35/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.15/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.95/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 15 | 5 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 47 | 50 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 672m/g | 717m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 17 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.42) +12% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.42) +50% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.26) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 10 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/3g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/19g | 12% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Murray | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 1/9g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 14 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 12 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 0/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 15/22g | 3/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/8g | 4% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tommy Talau | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Navale | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1369 · Sea Eagles 1418 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 905 (best 1246) | 943 (best 1239) | Sea Eagles +38 |
| Backs | 930 (best 988) | 903 (best 1053) | Wests Tigers +27 |
| Halves | 1211 (best 1211) | 974 (best 974) | Wests Tigers +237 |
| Hooker | 1044 | 1084 | Sea Eagles +40 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)