Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 6.6 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 40. Warriors trailed 4–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–10. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 22 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Warriors's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Warriors have a 42% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
64%
Dragons
36%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 36%. Dragons are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Warriors counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. Warriors carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1464 vs 1423). The margin model predicts Warriors by 6.6 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.53
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Line / Spread
Warriors -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Dragons | W W L L L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.0
Warriors
23.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
-0.6
Warriors
-0.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1592
Warriors
1675
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.0
Warriors
4.4
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 2 from 13 (15%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Warriors get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dragons's -0.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Warriors predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +6.6
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