# Warriors v Dragons — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 14 – 10 Dragons

_Warriors hit back to go to war with Dragons._

Half time: 4 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 64% / Dragons 36% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 15 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Chanel Harris-Tavita (32' Tipped ⚡), Adam Pompey (63' Tipped ⚡), Adam Pompey (72' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Mathew Feagai (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (21' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 64% | Won |
| Dragons | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 14–10 Dragons in NRL Round 24 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven hundred and eighteen. That's how many post-contact metres the Warriors ground out at Go Media Stadium, and it's the number that explains how a team that trailed 10-4 at the break, got out-completed, out-possessed and out-line-broken walked away 14-10 winners over the Dragons.

Because on paper this should have been a Dragons afternoon. They ran at 85% completion to the Warriors' 77%, held 51% of the ball, cracked five line breaks to three and busted 35 tackles to the Warriors' 22. Mathew Feagai did the damage early, scoring twice inside the first 20 minutes to put the Dragons out to an 8-0 lead before Chanel Harris-Tavita hit back in the 32nd to make it 4-10 at the break.

Then the Warriors just kept running into people. That 718 to 646 post-contact edge wasn't flashy, it was attritional, and it's exactly the kind of stat that doesn't show up until the last quarter of a game when legs are gone. Adam Pompey cashed it in twice, in the 62nd and again in the 72nd, turning a six-point deficit into a four-point win with two tries in ten minutes.

The Dragons had the better halves and hooker on paper going in, rated 1211 and 1046 against the Warriors' 1037 and 606, and for long stretches it showed. Their kicking game controlled the afternoon too, 679 metres to the Warriors' 517, which is usually enough to squeeze territory and dictate terms. It just didn't survive contact with a Warriors forward pack that kept getting quick play-the-balls off the back of hard carries.

Where it really came apart for the Dragons was their own line. They missed only 22 tackles to the Warriors' 35, which sounds like a plus until you realise the Warriors still found a way through twice in the last half hour anyway. Errors were even at the other end of the ledger, Warriors coughing up 10 to the Dragons' 7, but it was the Dragons who couldn't find the try line again after the 20th minute despite doing most things better on the stat sheet.

Alphr's model had Warriors as 64% favourites and picked the margin at 6.6, landing close enough to the real 4-point gap to call it a sharp read. It also picked the total at under 44.5, and with the game finishing on 24 points, that was never really in doubt. Six from sixteen on the finer detail isn't a number to celebrate, but the shape of the read, Warriors to win, and to win a low-scoring arm-wrestle, held up.

Recent form had these two closely matched, both sides two wins from their last five, both leaking more than they'd like on defence. What decided it in the end wasn't polish. It was who was still willing to carry it up after contact when the game was on the line, and that was the Warriors.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Dragons | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| **1,855** | Run metres | 1,766 |
| **718** | Post-contact metres | 646 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| 9 | Offloads | 9 |
| 87.9% | Effective tackle % | **91.1%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 517 | Kick metres | **679** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 6.6 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 40. Warriors trailed 4–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–10. The model went 6/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 4.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 23 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Warriors's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Warriors have a 46% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -9 pts
- 20' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 62' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 8-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.53 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 64.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 7 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 64%, but Dragons stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 41 ELO points clear, 1464 to 1423.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Warriors, which says ELO Difference carry the most weight. The margin model has Warriors by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 5th against Dragons 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 20-12 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 5th · Dragons 11th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Dragons | 3W–12L | 20% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 13 games (46%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Warriors get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dragons's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.2pts |
| 1592.2m | Run Metres | 1675.4m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 345.8 | Tackles | 323.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 20.4 |
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Warriors | 20 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R12 | Dragons | 12 – 30 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R10 | Dragons | 14 – 15 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R7 | Dragons | 30 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R26 | Warriors | 18 – 6 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (1.95 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Allan, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.3/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.9/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.95/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 8 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 154m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 50 | 50 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 653m/g | 722m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.8% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 8 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.26) +46% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.44) +41% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.42) +36%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.68) +0% · Wingers 1.24/g (lg 1.25) -1% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.42) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 7/13g | 20/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/30g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 72' |
| 4 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | CE | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 6/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/15g | 14/53g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/24g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 10 in 20g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | Replacement | 16 in 17g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·1·2·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Hayden Buchanan | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 21' |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hame Sele | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1464 · Dragons 1423 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1050 (best 1210) | 1072 (best 1305) | Dragons +23 |
| Backs | 787 (best 912) | 1001 (best 1194) | Dragons +213 |
| Halves | 1037 (best 1037) | 1211 (best 1211) | Dragons +174 |
| Hooker | 606 | 1046 | Dragons +439 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)