NRL | Round 24

alphr.com.au

CRO
Sharks
VS
GLD
Titans
SHARKS STADIUM, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 16 AUG, 3:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 32 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 76 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 44. Sharks led 28–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

71%SharksFavourite

Sharks

71%

Titans

29%

AI Match Overview

Sharks are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Sharks carry a 262-point ELO rating advantage (1534 vs 1273). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sharks by 5.8 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sharks to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.7%

Line / Spread

Sharks -11.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.7%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.4%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Sharks
WWWWL
23.0
Titans
WLLLL
20.4

Avg Conceded

15.2

Sharks

22.6

Titans

Avg Margin

7.8

Sharks

-2.2

Titans

Run Metres

1793

Sharks

1689

Titans

Line Breaks

4.6

Sharks

4.8

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Sharks
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CRO
71%12W 5L
GLD
32%7W 15L

When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 12 of 17 games (71%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 22 (32%). That's a 39‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.0 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.0 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1
Mar 2026CRO 50 - 10 GLD
Aug 2024CRO 44 - 0 GLD
Jul 2024CRO 16 - 20 GLD
Aug 2023CRO 36 - 6 GLD
Jun 2022CRO 18 - 10 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO
1534Overall1273
GLD
ELO difference: +262 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

959Forwards1067
Best: 1258GLD +108Best: 1310
932Backs1064
Best: 1042GLD +132Best: 1197
1070Halves1094
Best: 1070GLD +23Best: 1094
1172Hooker1200
GLD +28

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO
Stat
GLD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
23.0pts
Avg Score
20.4pts
15.2pts
Avg Conceded
22.6pts
7.8pts
Avg Margin
-2.2pts
1793.2m
Run Metres
1688.6m
4.6
Line Breaks
4.8
353.0
Tackles
346.0
12.2
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Sharks
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Sharks
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Sharks

Model Confidence

71%

Sharks predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.8

2/3 match predictions correct
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