Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 76 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 44. Sharks led 28–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 32 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sharks have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
71%
Titans
29%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Sharks carry a 262-point ELO rating advantage (1534 vs 1273). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sharks by 5.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.7%
Line / Spread
Sharks -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.7%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W W W L | 23.0 |
Titans | W L L L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
15.2
Sharks
22.6
Titans
Avg Margin
7.8
Sharks
-2.2
Titans
Run Metres
1793
Sharks
1689
Titans
Line Breaks
4.6
Sharks
4.8
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 24 (29%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Titans get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Sharks predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.8
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