# Sharks v Titans — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 54 – 22 Titans

_Sharks hunt down Titans._

Half time: 28 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 71% / Titans 29% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 16 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Nicho Hynes (4' 1st), Jesse Colquhoun (22'), Nicho Hynes (26' 1st), Braydon Trindall (32' Tipped ⚡), William Kennedy (39'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (51' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (54' Tipped ⚡), Sione Katoa (59' Tipped ⚡), Tuku Hau Tapuha (63'), Sione Katoa (65' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Jaylan De Groot (14' Tipped ⚡), Beau Fermor (16'), Phillip Sami (72' Tipped ⚡), Josh Patston (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 71% | Won |
| Titans | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 54–22 Titans in NRL Round 24 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sharks overran Titans 54–22 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Leading 28–10 at the interval, Sharks pulled clear late.

Nicho Hynes opened the scoring; Sharks crossed through Nicho Hynes (2), Jesse Colquhoun, Braydon Trindall, William Kennedy, Ronaldo Mulitalo (2), Sione Katoa (2) and Tuku Hau Tapuha; Titans scored through Jaylan De Groot, Beau Fermor, Phillip Sami and Josh Patston.

The game swung on a 48-point Sharks burst between the 22nd and 65th minutes.

Sharks enjoyed the bulk of possession (55%). Titans were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 11 times to 12 and completing at 74%. Sharks were sharper in attack, breaking the line 7 times to 3. Sharks won the yardage battle, grinding out 588 post-contact metres. Sharks were harder to handle in contact, busting 43 tackles to 34. Titans's defence leaked, missing 43 tackles to 34. Sharks controlled territory with the boot, kicking for 663 metres.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| Titans | 10 | 12 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **1,896** | Run metres | 1,696 |
| **588** | Post-contact metres | 493 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| 5 | Offloads | **14** |
| 80.6% | Effective tackle % | **87.6%** |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 12 | Errors | **11** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **663** | Kick metres | 437 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 76 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 44. Sharks led 28–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 7/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 11.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 32 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sharks have a 74% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 13' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 15' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -12 pts
- 22' Try — Jesse Colquhoun (Sharks) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 31' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 38' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 26-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 50' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 32-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 54' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 38-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 59' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 44-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Tuku Hau Tapuha (Sharks) — 48-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 54-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 54-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 75' Try — Josh Patston (Titans) — 54-20 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.30 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 71.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 71% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 262 ELO points clear, 1534 to 1273. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sharks by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sharks to win, not to win big.

Sharks have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 30-22 in 2026 Round 25.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sharks 7th against Titans 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 9 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 30-22 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 7th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 14W–5L | 74% |
| Titans | 8W–18L | 31% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 14 of 19 games (74%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 26 (31%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Titans get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.2pts |
| 1793.2m | Run Metres | 1688.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 353.0 | Tackles | 346.0 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 23.0 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Titans | 22 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R1 | Sharks | 50 – 10 | Titans |
| 2024 | R23 | Titans | 0 – 44 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R18 | Sharks | 16 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R24 | Sharks | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 13th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Mulitalo, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) | 1.35/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) | 1.15/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.65/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 0.76/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 11th) | 1.15/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.7/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 13 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 84.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 44 | 45 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 735m/g | 682m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 12.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.8% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 15 | 13 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 558m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.32/g (lg 0.16) +100% · Fullbacks 0.69/g (lg 0.42) +64% · 2nd Rows 0.65/g (lg 0.44) +48%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.69) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' 65' |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 5/6g | 3/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' 54' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 4/8g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 4' 26' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/14g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | Replacement | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 16 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 3 | Phillip Sami | CE | 14 in 19g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Tony Francis | WG | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.75 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | CE | 7 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 75' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1534 · Titans 1273 · ELO difference: 262 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 959 (best 1258) | 1067 (best 1310) | Titans +108 |
| Backs | 932 (best 1042) | 1064 (best 1197) | Titans +132 |
| Halves | 1070 (best 1070) | 1094 (best 1094) | Titans +23 |
| Hooker | 1172 | 1200 | Titans +28 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Sharks predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)