Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Roosters led 14–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
54%
Bulldogs
46%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Bulldogs are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 1.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @2.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.8%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 32.6 |
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.0
Roosters
14.4
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
11.6
Roosters
9.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1514
Roosters
1696
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.8
Roosters
5.8
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 35 of 56 games (63%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 34 (47%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1601 vs 1581), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.83).
The model sides with ELO, Roosters predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Roosters predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.2
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