# Roosters v Bulldogs — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 32 – 12 Bulldogs

_Roosters strut past Bulldogs._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 54% / Bulldogs 46% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 15 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Daniel Tupou (15' Tipped ⚡), Naufahu Whyte (37'), Naufahu Whyte (46'), Daniel Tupou (54' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (77' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Enari Tuala (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matt Burton (62')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 54% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 32–12 Bulldogs in NRL Round 24 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs led first. Enari Tuala crossed in the 10th minute and it was 0-4, an early jolt for the home crowd at Allianz Stadium. It didn't last long.

Daniel Tupou hit back five minutes later to make it 4-6, and by the 36th minute Naufahu Whyte had gone over to put Roosters in front, 12-6. By half-time the score had moved to 14-6, and from there the chase belonged to Bulldogs, not the other way round.

That chase never got going. Whyte scored again in the 45th minute to make it 18-6, and Tupou added his second in the 54th for 24-6. Bulldogs were suddenly staring down an 18-point gap. Matt Burton's try in the 62nd got them back within 16, 26-10, but Tupou completed his hat-trick in the 77th to make it 30-12 before the final score settled at 32-12.

The stat sheet explains why the gap kept widening rather than closing. Roosters ran for 1,330 metres to 1,148 and put on 447 post-contact metres, nearly 140 more than Bulldogs managed. That's a forward pack doing its job, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings that had Roosters' forwards rated at 1125 against Bulldogs' 1047. The halves gap was even bigger on paper, 1285 to 1107, and Roosters' attack found the line often enough to back that up.

Where the game was really lost was in defence. Bulldogs missed 37 tackles to Roosters' 15, a rough night for a side whose effective tackle rate still sat close to its opponent's, 88.1% against 90.9%. Missing that many tackles against a side that racked up 37 tackle breaks and 10 offloads is a hard way to defend a lead, and Roosters cashed in with five tries to two.

Bulldogs weren't without answers. They out-kicked Roosters for territory, 783 metres to 676, and their completion rate of 77% wasn't far off Roosters' 84%. But nine penalties conceded against five kept handing back field position, and the hooker edge the ratings gave them coming in, 967 to 839, never showed up where it counted.

Form lines coming in had Bulldogs the more prolific attacking side of late, averaging 24 points a game to Roosters' 32.6, with the tighter defensive record too, conceding just 14.4 on average against Roosters' 21. None of that carried over to Allianz Stadium. Roosters played to their season averages, and then some, while Bulldogs fell well short of theirs.

Alphr's model backed Roosters to win at 54% and got that half right. The margin call was well off, tipping a 1.2-point squeak instead of the 20-point gap that actually opened up. The total score prediction of 43 held up fine against the actual 44, just a point out. Overall the model went 5 from 16 on this one, with the over 42.5 call landing as the correct one.

Roosters took the lead in the first quarter and never gave it back. Bulldogs had their moments, Burton's try among them, but the missed tackles and the penalty count did the damage.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| Bulldogs | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,330** | Run metres | 1,148 |
| **447** | Post-contact metres | 308 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 15 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **90.9%** | Effective tackle % | 88.1% |
| **15** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 676 | Kick metres | **783** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Roosters led 14–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 5/16 on this match. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 36' Try — Naufahu Whyte (Roosters) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 45' Try — Naufahu Whyte (Roosters) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 54' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 62' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 77' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 30-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $2.20 (edge +4.8%) — model probability 53.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 54%, but Bulldogs stay live at 46%. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2026 Round 23.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Roosters 9th against Bulldogs 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 20-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 9th · Bulldogs 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–20L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 37 of 59 games (63%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 36 (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.6pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1514.2m | Run Metres | 1696.0m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 345.8 | Tackles | 343.8 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 32.6 |
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Roosters | 20 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R11 | Bulldogs | 24 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R16 | Roosters | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R5 | Bulldogs | 30 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R14 | Roosters | 25 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 13th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Burton, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.9/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 15 | 8 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 167m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 45 | 40 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 726m/g | 787m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20/g | 15.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 23 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 450m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.69) +7%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 9 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 13/13g | 25/46g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 15 in 20g | 12/10g (2·1·0·1·1·2·1·2·0·2) | 10/19g | 68/96g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 54' 77' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 3/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 16 in 19g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·3) | 2/1g | 7/8g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 25% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/22g | 4% | — | 🏉 37' 46' |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 6/40g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 7/27g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Egan Butcher | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | 2R | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 7/39g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | Replacement | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 60% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/8g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/11g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | INT | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Reed Mahoney | INT | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1601 vs 1581), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.83). The model sides with ELO, Roosters predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1601 · Bulldogs 1581 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1125 (best 1301) | 1047 (best 1222) | Roosters +78 |
| Backs | 1097 (best 1149) | 1150 (best 1255) | Bulldogs +53 |
| Halves | 1285 (best 1285) | 1107 (best 1107) | Roosters +179 |
| Hooker | 839 | 967 | Bulldogs +128 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Roosters predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)