# Rabbitohs v Eels — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 20 – 16 Eels

_Rabbitohs surge back to scamper past Eels._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 32% / Eels 68% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 16 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Tyrone Munro (14' 1st Tipped ⚡), Peter Mamouzelos (35'), Tallis Duncan (54' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (65' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Isaiah Iongi (25'), Zac Lomax (30' Tipped ⚡), Zac Lomax (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 68% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 20–16 Eels in NRL Round 24 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty minutes into the second half, this was still an Eels game. Zac Lomax and Isaiah Iongi had done the damage in the first, Parramatta led 12-10 at the break, and the shape of the contest matched the pre-match numbers: Eels halves rated at 1223 against Souths' 998, Eels hooker at 1091 against 940. Then Tallis Duncan happened twice.

Duncan's first, in the 53rd minute, put Rabbitohs up 14-12. His second, in the 65th, stretched it to 18-12. Two tries in twelve minutes from one man flipped a game the ratings said Souths shouldn't have been winning. Lomax grabbed his second in the 71st to make it 20-16, but there wasn't enough clock left for Parramatta to find another one.

Final score: Rabbitohs 20, Eels 16. A four-point arm-wrestle, decided by which side made the other work harder for less.

The Eels were the more dangerous side with ball in hand, and the stat sheet backs that up. Nine line breaks to six, 31 tackle breaks to 26, and 558 post-contact metres to 464. Sixteen offloads to one tells its own story about which forward pack was getting quick play-the-balls, and with Parramatta's pack rated only marginally above Souths' (1037 to 1034) coming in, that gap in second-effort footy was the difference between a competitive rating on paper and a genuine physical edge on the day.

But footy isn't just metres, it's what you do with the ball you're allowed to keep. Rabbitohs completed at 86% against Parramatta's 70%, coughing the ball up just seven times to fifteen. That's the number that mattered most. Fifteen errors against a side defending at 84.7% effective tackling isn't a recipe for control, and Souths' own defence, missing 31 tackles to the Eels' 26, was papered over by how rarely they had to make a tackle off the back of an Eels mistake going the other way.

Souths also owned territory, booting 698 kicking metres to Parramatta's 376, more than enough to offset a run metres deficit of 1,480 to 1,757. Where it got messy was discipline: Rabbitohs conceded nine penalties to the Eels' four, the one column where Parramatta's form line held up. Coming in, the Eels had been the tidier side by season error average, 9.6 to 14 for Souths, though on this occasion it was Souths, not Parramatta, keeping the ball in hand when it counted.

The scoring sequence tells the story of a game that swung twice. Munro opened it in the 14th minute for a 4-2 lead, before Iongi and then Lomax put Parramatta up 12-4 by the half-hour mark. Mamouzelos hit back just before the break to make it 8-12 at half-time, before Duncan's double turned the second half into a Rabbitohs procession, at least until Lomax's late reply made the finish tighter than the middle forty minutes suggested it would be.

Alphr's model had the Eels favourites at 68%, with a predicted margin of 3.7 points and a combined total of 47. The final result flipped that prediction, with Rabbitohs winning by 4 rather than losing by that margin, though the model's read on the total held up: its under 47.5 call landed with the game finishing on 36 combined points. On this occasion, the model went 4 from 16 on the card, a reminder that ratings built on halves and hooker strength don't always account for a forward who decides to have the game of his life in a twelve-minute window.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Eels | 12 | 4 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 70% |
| 1,480 | Run metres | **1,757** |
| 464 | Post-contact metres | **558** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| 1 | Offloads | **16** |
| 84.7% | Effective tackle % | **92.6%** |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| **7** | Errors | 15 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **698** | Kick metres | 376 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 68% prediction for Eels, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 60% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 24' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 4-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 35' Try — Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 53' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 65' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.63 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 67.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Eels here: 68% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Eels sit 86 ELO points clear, 1385 to 1299. Form leans Eels' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Rabbitohs.

Eels own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Eels by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Eels to win, not to win big.

Rabbitohs have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 16th against Eels 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 9 · Eels 1 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-24 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 16th · Eels 13th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 34W–23L | 60% |
| Eels | 14W–27L | 34% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 34 of 57 games (60%), significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 41 (34%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's +0.3. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 13.6pts | Avg Score | 15.4pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -16.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.8pts |
| 1388.6m | Run Metres | 1471.6m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 362.0 | Tackles | 367.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 14.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 13.6 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 15.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 24 | Eels |
| 2026 | R17 | Eels | 12 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R18 | Eels | 16 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 42 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Brown, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.57/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.15/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.52/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 25 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 49 | 39 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 638m/g | 734m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 15 | 10 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 471m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Wingers 1.65/g (lg 1.25) +32% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.69) +32%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.26) +73% · Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 14 in 13g | 12/10g (3·1·1·4·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 18/15g | 9/17g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ashton Ward | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Siliva Havili | PR | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Host | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 6 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 65' |
| 13 | Jai Arrow | LK | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Shaquai Mitchell | Replacement | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Fletcher | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 71' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Dylan Brown | CE | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 13 in 18g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 14/14g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Luca Moretti | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Dylan Walker | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1299 · Eels 1385 · ELO difference: 86 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1034 (best 1198) | 1037 (best 1247) | Eels +4 |
| Backs | 905 (best 1030) | 925 (best 995) | Eels +19 |
| Halves | 998 (best 998) | 1223 (best 1223) | Eels +225 |
| Hooker | 940 | 1091 | Eels +150 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Eels predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)