Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 68% prediction for Eels, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 58% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
32%
Eels
68%
AI Match Overview
Eels are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Eels ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 86-point ELO rating advantage (1385 vs 1299). Recent form favours Eels with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Eels by 3.7 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.63
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Eels +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.8%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W L L L L | 13.6 |
Eels | W W L L L | 15.4 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Rabbitohs
25.2
Eels
Avg Margin
-16.8
Rabbitohs
-9.8
Eels
Run Metres
1389
Rabbitohs
1472
Eels
Line Breaks
4.0
Rabbitohs
3.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 33 of 57 games (58%), significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 38 (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's -1.9. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Eels predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -3.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.