AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Rabbitohs have a 57% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 68% prediction for Eels — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
32%
Eels
68%
AI Match Overview
Eels are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Eels ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 86-point ELO rating advantage (1385 vs 1299). Recent form favours Eels with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Eels by 3.7 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.63
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Eels +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.8%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WLLLL | 13.6 |
Eels | WWLLL | 15.4 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Rabbitohs
25.2
Eels
Avg Margin
-16.8
Rabbitohs
-9.8
Eels
Run Metres
1389
Rabbitohs
1472
Eels
Line Breaks
4.0
Rabbitohs
3.2
Eels
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 32 of 56 games (57%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 36 (39%). That's a 18‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Eels predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -3.7
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