# Panthers v Storm — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 18 – 22 Storm

_Storm roar back to thunder past Panthers from 8 down._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 71% / Storm 29% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 14 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Isaiah Papali'i (10' 1st), Nathan Cleary (32'), Scott Sorensen (61') · Storm: Xavier Coates (23' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (53' Tipped ⚡), Joe Chan (57'), Marion Seve (66'), Harry Grant (82')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 71% | Lost |
| Storm | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 18–22 Storm in NRL Round 24 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm 22, Panthers 18. The ladder-leaders led for the best part of an hour and still found a way to lose it.

Panthers were up 12-4 at half-time and looked in control. Isaiah Papali'i opened the scoring in the 10th minute, Xavier Coates hit back for Storm at 22, and Nathan Cleary restored the buffer at the 31st. Twelve to four at the break isn't a lead most teams cough up. Panthers did.

Coates struck again at 52' to make it 12-8, and by the 57th minute Joe Chan had Storm in front, 12-14. That's the passage that mattered: two tries in five minutes turned a comfortable Panthers lead into a deficit. Scott Sorensen dragged them back in front at 16-14 in the 61st, only for Marion Seve to level it at 18-18 five minutes later. Harry Grant settled it in the 81st. A game that had been Panthers' to lose for an hour was gone in the final act.

The stat sheet tells you why it stayed close enough for Storm to snatch it. Panthers had the ball more, 52 to 48, and did more damage with it: 1,997 running metres to 1,730, 40 tackle breaks to 31, six line breaks to four. That's a forward pack and backline edge showing up exactly where the pre-match ratings said it should, Panthers rated higher across forwards, backs and halves coming in.

But rugby league punishes sloppy hands, and Panthers were the sloppier side by some distance. Eight errors to Storm's four, a completion rate of just 85% against Storm's 89%. Storm also kicked for 1,040 metres to Panthers' 779, which bought them the territory to keep building pressure even while chasing the ball less. And in defence, Panthers missed 31 tackles to Storm's 40, effective tackle percentages barely split at 90.9 to 90.2, but Storm's extra offloads (nine to five) kept enough footwork alive to manufacture the tries that mattered.

Panthers came into this off five wins from five, averaging 35.2 points a game and conceding just 12. Storm arrived with a patchier recent run, four from five, averaging 24 scored and 14.8 conceded. On paper this was Panthers' game to win, and Alphr's model had it that way too: 71% for Panthers, a predicted margin of 4.4. The final margin landed at four points, just the wrong way round. The total of 40 sat close to the model's 38.

So the model read the shape of the contest almost perfectly, tight margin, high-scoring, and still picked the wrong winner. Storm's hooker rating of 1,173 against Panthers' 895 turned out to be the number worth watching, and Harry Grant made sure it counted where it mattered most, right at the end.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Storm | 4 | 18 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 85% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| **1,997** | Run metres | 1,730 |
| **663** | Post-contact metres | 647 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| 5 | Offloads | **9** |
| **90.9%** | Effective tackle % | 90.2% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| 8 | Errors | **4** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 779 | Kick metres | **1,040** |

**Model Report Card**

Storm defied the model's 71% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.4 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 40, within 2 points. Storm trailed 12–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–22. The model went 1/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Storm have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 31' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 8-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 52' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 57' Try — Joe Chan (Storm) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 61' Try — Scott Sorensen (Panthers) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +22 pts
- 66' Try — Marion Seve (Storm) — 18-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 81' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.80 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 71.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 71% to see off Storm. The ratings say otherwise: Storm sit 74 ELO points clear, 1712 to 1638, so the model is backing Panthers against the ratings gap. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Storm.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Panthers by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 4th against Storm 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 6 · Storm 4 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 22-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 4th · Storm 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30W–28L | 52% |
| Storm | 41W–27L | 60% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Storm hold a 8-point edge: 41W–27L (60%) vs Panthers's 30W–28L (52%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 35.2pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Margin | 9.2pts |
| 1901.6m | Run Metres | 1737.6m |
| 7.2 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 367.0 | Tackles | 341.4 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 35.2 |
| Storm | 4W–1L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Storm | 14 – 22 | Panthers |
| 2026 | R5 | Panthers | 50 – 10 | Storm |
| 2025 | R3 | Storm | 30 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2024 | GF | Storm | 6 – 14 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R24 | Panthers | 22 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.05 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 12th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.45 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 3rd there (1.05 conceded/game). Key man: Wishart, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 8th) | 1.35/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.65/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.45/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 8th) | 1.2/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 14 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Run Metres | 212m/g | 242m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 38 | 58 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 789m/g | 716m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.1/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 80.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 21 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 547m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.62/g (lg 0.68) -9% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.44) -5% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.43) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/13g | 7/15g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 12 in 18g | 9/10g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 6/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/9g | 7/13g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 12 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 2/2g | 6/10g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/13g | 5/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 6/19g | 35% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 3/17g | 26% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 2/12g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.25 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Luke Garner | 2R | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 6/24g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaiah Papali'i | LK | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 5/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/23g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/11g | 12% | — | 🏉 61' |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Meaney | CE | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 7/16g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Joe Chan | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 4 | Marion Seve | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 16 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·3·0·1·2) | 1/7g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 53' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | FB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 5/11g | 30% | — | 🏉 82' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 1/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/14g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Storm hold the ELO advantage (1712 vs 1638), but the market favours Panthers (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1638 · Storm 1712 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1098 (best 1265) | 1022 (best 1270) | Panthers +76 |
| Backs | 1150 (best 1203) | 1091 (best 1306) | Panthers +60 |
| Halves | 1339 (best 1339) | 962 (best 962) | Panthers +377 |
| Hooker | 895 | 1173 | Storm +278 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)