# Cowboys v Knights — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 38 – 4 Knights

_Cowboys run riot over Knights._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 73% / Knights 27% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sun, 17 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Scott Drinkwater (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tom Dearden (29' Tipped ⚡), Braidon Burns (32' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (46' Tipped ⚡), Jeremiah Nanai (66'), Scott Drinkwater (71' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Knights: Dominic Young (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 73% | Won |
| Knights | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 38–4 Knights in NRL Round 24 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty points up and not even to the break yet. That's the hole Newcastle dug themselves at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, and they never climbed out of it, going down 38-4 to the Cowboys.

Scott Drinkwater had it started inside three minutes, and from there the Cowboys just kept adding to it. Tom Dearden crossed in the 29th, Braidon Burns two minutes after that, and by half-time the scoreboard read 20-0. A Reece Robson sin bin in between did nothing to slow it down, which tells you plenty about how one-sided the ruck and defensive picture already was.

The second half was just more of the same arithmetic. Jaxon Purdue got over in the 46th to push it to 24-0 before Newcastle finally got on the board through Dominic Young in the 53rd. It was window dressing. Jeremiah Nanai and a second Drinkwater try either side of the 70-minute mark stretched it out to 36-4 and then 38, and by then the result had been decided for the best part of an hour.

Look at the stat sheet and the Knights actually did plenty right. They completed at 68% to the Cowboys' 67%, coughed the ball up only 16 times to 23, and broke the line five times to four. On another day that's the sheet of a team that wins. Instead they lost by 34, because the stuff that doesn't show up as neatly, the physical stuff, went entirely the Cowboys' way.

North Queensland ran for 1,951 metres to Newcastle's 1,457, and broke 46 tackles to the Knights' 32. That's not a form line, that's a beating in the collisions. Newcastle's defence missed 46 tackles against the Cowboys' 32, and once you're missing that many against a team running that hard, the line breaks and clean completions stop mattering.

The Cowboys' halves and backline edge going in, rated 1207 and 1092 against Newcastle's 1075 and 978, showed up exactly where you'd expect: in a five-try haul spread across Drinkwater twice, Dearden, Burns, Purdue and Nanai. Newcastle's one edge on paper, the 1200-rated hooker spot against the Cowboys' 1062, wasn't enough to stop the drift once North Queensland got go-forward.

Newcastle did control the air, kicking for 598 metres to the Cowboys' 514, and their form coming in wasn't disastrous, an average concession of 33.2 points from the last five. This one blew past that number by five points, which says the gap on the night was worse than the recent trend suggested.

Alphr's model had Cowboys favourites at 73% and picked the total at 43, just one out from the actual 42. Fair read there. The margin was where it fell over, tipping Cowboys by 8.6 when the actual gap was 34. Cowboys covered the 6.5-point line, the under on 47.5 total points landed, and the model finished 9 from 16 on the match overall. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 20 | 18 | 38 |
| Knights | 0 | 4 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 67% | Completion rate | **68%** |
| **1,951** | Run metres | 1,457 |
| **538** | Post-contact metres | 476 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| 6 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.1% | Effective tackle % | **85.2%** |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| 23 | Errors | **16** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 514 | Kick metres | **598** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. Cowboys led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 9/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 6.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 18' Sin Bin — Reece Robson (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 31' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 46' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 53' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 26-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 66' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 30-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 36-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.45 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 72.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cowboys here: 73% to see off Knights. Form leans Cowboys' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Cowboys by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Cowboys to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Cowboys have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 28-18 in 2026 Round 1.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 14th against Knights 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 28-18 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 14th · Knights 15th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 15.4pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 33.2pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | -17.8pts |
| 1692.6m | Run Metres | 1596.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 359.6 | Tackles | 394.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 20.0 |
| Knights | 0W–5L | 15.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Knights | 28 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | FW1 | Cowboys | 28 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R2 | Cowboys | 21 – 20 | Knights |
| 2023 | R8 | Cowboys | 18 – 16 | Knights |
| 2022 | R9 | Cowboys | 36 – 16 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 5th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.81 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.81/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.9/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.24/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 11th) | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.85/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.7/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 11 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 222m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 58 | 29 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 743m/g | 786m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 22.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 75.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 23 | 8 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 453m/g | 516m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 20/66g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 71' |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/10g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 12 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 6/16g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 8/26g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 21/50g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 3/63g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 18/64g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/49g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 26/40g | 36% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/41g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | Replacement | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Votano | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 2/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/17g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 2/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Arthur | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Arthur | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1351 · Knights 1343 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 981 (best 1273) | 1050 (best 1247) | Knights +69 |
| Backs | 1092 (best 1190) | 978 (best 1011) | Cowboys +113 |
| Halves | 1207 (best 1207) | 1075 (best 1075) | Cowboys +132 |
| Hooker | 1062 | 1200 | Knights +138 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)