AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Broncos bucked the trend — Dolphins historically win 100% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Broncos's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
61%
Dolphins
39%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts Broncos by 3.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Line / Spread
Broncos -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWLL | 26.0 |
Dolphins | WWWLL | 27.4 |
Avg Conceded
18.0
Broncos
31.6
Dolphins
Avg Margin
8.0
Broncos
-4.2
Dolphins
Run Metres
1657
Broncos
1729
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.8
Broncos
6.2
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 3 of 3 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Broncos's 1 from 3 (33%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 49.8 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Broncos — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1507), but the market favours Broncos (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Broncos predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +3.8
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