# Broncos v Dolphins — NRL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 38 – 28 Dolphins

_Broncos buck off Dolphins._

Half time: 14 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 61% / Dolphins 39% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 16 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (19'), Reece Walsh (36' Tipped ⚡), Deine Mariner (52'), Josiah Karapani (55' Tipped ⚡), Ben Talty (59' Tipped ⚡), Kotoni Staggs (67') · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (15' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Averillo (31' Tipped ⚡), Trai Fuller (41'), Jeremy Marshall-King (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 61% | Won |
| Dolphins | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 38–28 Dolphins in NRL Round 24 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Dolphins turned up with the better handling numbers on paper. Fewer errors, nine to Broncos' ten. Fewer penalties conceded, just two to the home side's nine. On any other night that discipline wins you a game at Suncorp. It didn't win them this one.

Where it fell apart was in the tackle. Dolphins missed 60 of them for the night against Broncos' 28, and that number alone tells you most of what you need to know about how a 14-14 half-time scoreline turned into a 38-28 loss. Their forward pack rated at 868 coming in against Broncos' 1028, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: post-contact metres, tackle breaks, the stuff that happens after the first hit. Broncos ran for 547 post-contact metres and busted 60 tackles to the Dolphins' 28. Ten offloads to two. That's a side getting bent backwards in the collision every set.

The Dolphins actually led for a good stretch. Tabuai-Fidow opened the scoring in the 14th minute, Averillo had them up 8-12 by the 30th, and Fuller's try on the stroke of half-time made it 14-18. Jeremy Marshall-King then stretched it to 14-26 just after the break. At that point Dolphins were playing the better footy and looking like the side with the stronger halves pairing, which the ratings had them at 1069 to Broncos' 946, doing the damage.

Then the wheels came off. Broncos answered with four tries in the back half of the second stanza: Mariner, Karapani, Talty and a second from Staggs, running off 18-28 to 38-28 without the Dolphins landing another blow. Once the missed tackles started piling up, Broncos just kept finding grass, and a Dolphins backline rated above Broncos' pre-match (1038 to 923) had no answer once the ball got loose through those gaps.

Broncos were the more clinical side with the ball in hand even if the raw error count says otherwise. They completed at 82% to the Dolphins' 77%, held 51% of possession, and controlled the game territorially with 567 kicking metres to 439. Staggs finished with two tries either side of that momentum swing, and Reece Walsh's try just before the break kept them in touch when Dolphins looked to be building a real break clear.

For a side that came in conceding an average of 31.6 points across their last five, leaking 38 here isn't exactly a shock, and it lines up with form more than it bucks it. Broncos, by contrast, had been conceding 18 on average and still shipped 28, which says something about how much footy the Dolphins actually created despite the missed tackles column.

The model had Broncos by 3.8 points and got the winner right at 61% for the favourites. The margin landed at ten, close enough to the read. The total is the bit that got away from it: 66 points played out against a projected 46, a 20-point overshoot that no amount of pre-match modelling was picking. Broncos covered the line. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 14 | 24 | 38 |
| Dolphins | 14 | 14 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,654** | Run metres | 1,465 |
| **547** | Post-contact metres | 432 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **60** | Tackle breaks | 28 |
| **10** | Offloads | 2 |
| **90.8%** | Effective tackle % | 80.3% |
| **28** | Missed tackles | 60 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **567** | Kick metres | 439 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 8/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 2.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Broncos bucked the trend, Dolphins historically win 71% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Broncos's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 19' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 8-12 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 36' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 12-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 40' Try — Trai Fuller (Dolphins) — 14-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 52' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 18-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 54' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 24-28 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 58' Try — Ben Talty (Broncos) — 30-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 67' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 36-28 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.65 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 61%, but Dolphins stay live at 39%.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Broncos by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 40-32 in 2026 Round 23.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 6th against Dolphins 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Broncos 6 · Dolphins 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 40-32 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 6th · Dolphins 8th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Dolphins | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 8 (38%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 27.4pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1657.0m | Run Metres | 1729.2m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 341.6 | Tackles | 353.2 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 26.0 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 27.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Dolphins | 40 – 32 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R4 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R4 | Dolphins | 12 – 20 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R26 | Dolphins | 40 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R6 | Broncos | 28 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Shibasaki, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 6th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.45/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.8/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 9th) | 1.1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 8 | 13 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 124m/g | 223m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 54 · 47 | 57 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 675m/g | 762m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 82.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 591m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.69) +30% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.69) +4% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 17/33g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 40/77g | 30% | — | 🏉 19' 67' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 12 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 11/18g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 8/24g | 42% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Billy Walters | 5/8 | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/51g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 26/110g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/49g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/39g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/78g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 13/64g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/65g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/55g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $8.25 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $81.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | CE | 17 in 17g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·4·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 23/27g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 31/72g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 5/6g | 11/23g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 22/79g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Mark Nicholls | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 6/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 2/28g | 14% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Aublix Tawha | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/25g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/25g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1514 vs 1507), but the market favours Broncos (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1507 · Dolphins 1514 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1028 (best 1326) | 868 (best 1087) | Broncos +161 |
| Backs | 923 (best 1022) | 1038 (best 1149) | Dolphins +115 |
| Halves | 946 (best 946) | 1069 (best 1069) | Dolphins +124 |
| Hooker | 1107 | 1083 | Broncos +24 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Broncos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r24-broncos-v-dolphins
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)