AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Rabbitohs bucked the trend — Titans historically win 50% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Todd Smith's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 58% prediction for Titans — a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 38 — within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Titans
58%
Rabbitohs
42%
AI Match Overview
Titans hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Titans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Titans carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1296 vs 1276). Recent form favours Titans with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Titans by 4.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Titans to Win @1.49
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.3%
Line / Spread
Titans -6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.3%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | WLLLL | 21.6 |
Rabbitohs | LLLLL | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.6
Titans
36.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-3.0
Titans
-21.6
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1631
Titans
1433
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.4
Titans
4.6
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Titans hold a 14‑point edge: 5W–5L (50%) vs Rabbitohs's 4W–7L (36%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 46.0 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
46.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Titans predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +4.2
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