# Titans v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 18 – 20 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs hold off a fast-finishing Titans._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 58% / Rabbitohs 42% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 10 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jaylan De Groot (10' Tipped ⚡), Beau Fermor (14'), Sam Verrills (66') · Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (26' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (59' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 58% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 18–20 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 23 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cbus Super Stadium saw the lead change hands twice inside the first quarter of an hour, and from there it was a case of the Rabbitohs nursing an edge the Titans kept threatening to overturn. Souths got there in the end, 20-18, but it was never comfortable, and at half-time the margin sat at just two points, 14-12.

Alex Johnston set the tone inside two minutes, scoring to put the Rabbitohs 4-0 up before the Titans had settled. The home side hit back through Jaylan De Groot in the 10th minute to level it at 4-4, then Beau Fermor crossed three minutes later to push the Titans in front, 10-4. For a quarter of an hour, this looked like a home job.

Bayleigh Bentley-Hape's try in the 26th minute changed that. It brought Souths back to within four, 12-8, and by half-time the ledger read 14-12 in the visitors' favour. The Titans had led for most of the opening stanza, but a soft finish before the break handed Souths the lead they'd carry into the sheds.

The second half told a different story on the scoreboard, even as the Titans kept winning the collisions. Johnston's second try, in the 59th minute, stretched Souths out to 18-12. Sam Verrills answered for the Titans six minutes later to make it 18-16, and that's as close as the home side would get.

Look at the underlying numbers and the Titans should have won this. They ran for 1,749 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,427, and 533 of that came after contact against Souths' 418. They broke 41 tackles to 26 and offloaded 14 times to just 6. That's a forward pack that spent 80 minutes making Souths work for every metre in defence.

None of it translated into the scoreboard advantage it should have. Souths completed at 81% to the Titans' 78%, and put down the ball only 8 times compared to the Titans' 12. They also controlled territory with the boot, kicking for 637 metres against 522, which let them dictate field position even while conceding the physical battle up front.

Defensively, it was the Titans doing the standing up. Their effective tackle rate of 90.9% dwarfed Souths' 82.7%, and the Rabbitohs missed 41 tackles to the Titans' 26. Souths leaked all night in defence and got away with it, because their attack found four tries to the Titans' three when it mattered.

Going in, Alphr's model had the Titans favoured by 4.2 points and gave them a 58% chance, with the halves matchup the clearest tick for Souths, 1287 to 1128 in the ratings.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Rabbitohs | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 78% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,749** | Run metres | 1,427 |
| **533** | Post-contact metres | 418 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **14** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.9%** | Effective tackle % | 82.7% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 12 | Errors | **8** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 522 | Kick metres | **637** |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 58% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 38, within 6 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 9 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Titans historically win 46% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 10' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 13' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (Rabbitohs) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 59' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 12-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 65' Try — Sam Verrills (Titans) — 16-20 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.49 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 57.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 4 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Titans are the call at 58%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Titans sit 20 ELO points clear, 1296 to 1276. Form leans Titans' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

Titans own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Titans by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Titans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 10 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 42-22 in 2026 Round 26.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Rabbitohs 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 0 · Rabbitohs 10 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 42-22 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Rabbitohs 17th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Titans

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–9L | 36% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Titans hold a 10-point edge: 6W–7L (46%) vs Rabbitohs's 5W–9L (36%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Titans get a +1.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 24.6pts | Avg Conceded | 36.8pts |
| -3.0pts | Avg Margin | -21.6pts |
| 1630.6m | Run Metres | 1433.4m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 345.0 | Tackles | 370.0 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 21.6 |
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Titans | 22 – 42 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R14 | Titans | 12 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R14 | Titans | 28 – 46 | Rabbitohs |
| 2022 | R14 | Titans | 16 – 30 | Rabbitohs |
| 2021 | R22 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Brimson, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.68 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.55/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.16/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 11th) | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.4/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.68/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 5 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 58 | 40 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 678m/g | 639m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.9/g | 12.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 17 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 557m/g | 485m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.26) +77% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.33/g (lg 0.17) +94% · Fullbacks 0.7/g (lg 0.43) +63% · 2nd Rows 0.66/g (lg 0.44) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 26/61g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 19/65g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 11/25g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 24/25g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 9/33g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 16/33g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 2/24g | 6% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 10 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/46g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/30g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 11/41g | 22% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 13 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/28g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/17g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 12 in 12g | 11/10g (1·3·1·1·4·0·0·1·0·0) | 14/12g | 13/8g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 59' |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 6 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Ashton Ward | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | LK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Host | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Smith | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Fletcher | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1296 · Rabbitohs 1276 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Titans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1027 (best 1252) | 980 (best 1194) | Titans +47 |
| Backs | 1042 (best 1202) | 961 (best 1096) | Titans +81 |
| Halves | 1128 (best 1128) | 1287 (best 1287) | Rabbitohs +159 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1184 | Titans +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Titans |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Titans predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)