Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 24 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 44. Storm led 12–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 65% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
63%
Broncos
37%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 37%. Broncos are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Storm carry a 166-point ELO rating advantage (1693 vs 1527). The margin model predicts Storm by 4.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.47
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Storm -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 24.8 |
Broncos | W W W W L | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
18.4
Storm
16.0
Broncos
Avg Margin
6.4
Storm
14.8
Broncos
Run Metres
1762
Storm
1660
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.4
Storm
6.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 52 games (65%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 23 from 48 (48%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +4.8
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