# Storm v Broncos — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 22 – 2 Broncos

_Storm thunder past Broncos._

Half time: 12 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 63% / Broncos 37% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Thu, 07 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Tyran Wishart (28' 1st), Ryan Papenhuyzen (38'), Xavier Coates (62' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (76' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 63% | Won |
| Broncos | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 22–2 Broncos in NRL Round 23 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos held Storm to 4-2 for the best part of half an hour, and then Tyran Wishart's try in the 28th minute cracked the door open. Nine minutes later Ryan Papenhuyzen was through as well, and by the break Storm led 12-2. That was the pivot. Once Xavier Coates crossed twice in the second half, at the 61st and 75th minute mark, the contest was no contest at all.

Final score: Storm 22, Broncos 2. A 20-point margin at AAMI Park that looked nothing like the tight arm-wrestle the pre-match numbers suggested.

The gap between what Storm's forward pack and backline were rated coming in and what actually happened on the field is the story here. Broncos held the edge on paper almost everywhere, forwards 1117 to 1079, backs 1165 to 948, hooker 1200 to 1131. None of it translated. Storm ran for 1,851 metres to 1,539, and did the hard yards after contact too, 577 post-contact metres to 489. When a side with the lesser rating on the stat sheet out-muscles the favourite in a contact indicator like that, something's off in the read.

Line breaks tell the rest of it. Storm cracked the Broncos' line five times. Broncos managed zero. Forty-three tackle breaks to 25 backs that up: Storm were finding space Broncos simply weren't built to close down on the day, whatever the ratings said about their backline strength.

Defensively, Broncos were the soft touch. They missed 43 tackles to Storm's 25, and an effective tackle rate of 85.6% against Storm's 89.4% shows a defensive line that kept leaking under pressure, not just wilting late. Storm were the tidier side with ball in hand too, completing at 72% to 62% and coughing up just 13 errors to 16. Add in the penalty count, 4 to 6 against Broncos, and there was never a stretch of the game where Broncos had the ball long enough or often enough to string much together. Their only points came from a penalty goal, and Wishart, Papenhuyzen and Coates did the rest for Storm.

It's a form-line reversal too. Broncos came in with the better recent scoring average, 30.8 points to Storm's 24.8, and a healthier average margin over their last five, plus form the ledger said matter, six line breaks a game against Storm's 3.4. None of that showed up when it counted.

Alphr's model called Storm to win at 63% and got the right side of the ledger, but undercooked it badly on margin, tipping Storm by 4.8 when the actual gap was 20. It also picked a combined total of 44, well above the 24 points that were scored, though the under 46.5 line held up. Four from sixteen on this one. Storm covered the 5.5-point line with plenty to spare, and the only thing the model got conservative about was just how comprehensively the form guide would get turned on its head.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| Broncos | 2 | 0 | 2 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **72%** | Completion rate | 62% |
| **1,851** | Run metres | 1,539 |
| **577** | Post-contact metres | 489 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 85.6% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| **13** | Errors | 16 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **630** | Kick metres | 587 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 24 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 44. Storm led 12–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/16 on this match. Storm covered the 5.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 64% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 28' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 10-2 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 61' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 16-2 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Penalty Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 20-2 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.47 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 63.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 63%, but Broncos stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 166 ELO points clear, 1693 to 1527.

On paper Broncos shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Storm, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Storm by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 46-20 in 2026 Round 26.

Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Storm 3, Broncos 5.

On the ladder it's Storm 2nd against Broncos 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 2nd · Broncos 6th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 35W–20L | 64% |
| Broncos | 25W–28L | 47% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 35 of 55 games (64%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 25 from 53 (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Broncos's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 14.8pts |
| 1761.6m | Run Metres | 1659.6m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 338.0 | Tackles | 325.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 4W–1L | 24.8 |
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Broncos | 20 – 46 | Storm |
| 2026 | R3 | Storm | 14 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2025 | GF | Storm | 22 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R27 | Broncos | 30 – 14 | Storm |
| 2024 | R27 | Broncos | 12 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.47 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 7th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.05 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Staggs, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.32/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.53/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 2.47/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.89/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.32/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.26/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.05/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 3 | 16 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 238m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 47 | 54 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 706m/g | 676m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 3 | 8 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 553m/g | 590m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.73/g (lg 0.68) +7% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.25) +7% · Centres 0.63/g (lg 0.68) -7% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 12 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·1·4·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 37/42g | 46% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 10 in 19g | 4/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/21g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 19/40g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 14 in 15g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·3·0·0·3·0·1) | 2/5g | 38/35g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 76' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 34/96g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/36g | 32% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 17/43g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/11g | 7/42g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 12/30g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/42g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.00 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 15 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 5/48g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Chan | CE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 6 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 0/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 48% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/20g | 0/10g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Hunt | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $13.00 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $101.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1693 · Broncos 1527 · ELO difference: 166 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1079 (best 1333) | 1117 (best 1342) | Broncos +38 |
| Backs | 948 (best 1012) | 1165 (best 1201) | Broncos +218 |
| Halves | 1262 (best 1262) | 1266 (best 1266) | Broncos +4 |
| Hooker | 1131 | 1200 | Broncos +69 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Storm predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)