Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Raiders led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
75%
Sea Eagles
25%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 201-point ELO rating advantage (1635 vs 1434). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Raiders by 9.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Raiders -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W L | 29.2 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 16.8 |
Avg Conceded
18.8
Raiders
20.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
10.4
Raiders
-3.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1794
Raiders
1491
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
6.2
Raiders
3.8
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
BalancedPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Raiders 9W–9L (50%) and Sea Eagles 9W–9L (50%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Raiders get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Raiders predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +9.7
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