# Raiders v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 28 – 12 Sea Eagles

_Raiders raid Sea Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 75% / Sea Eagles 25% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Fri, 08 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Ethan Strange (10'), Xavier Savage (14' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Strange (51'), Ethan Strange (55'), Sebastian Kris (64') · Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (3' 1st), Tolutau Koula (47' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 75% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 28–12 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 23 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten minutes into the second half, this was a contest. Tolutau Koula scored in the 46th minute to level things at 10-10, and for a moment the Sea Eagles looked like they'd hauled themselves back into a game they'd trailed all night. Then Ethan Strange happened twice.

Strange crossed in the 50th minute to put Canberra back in front, 14-12, and again in the 54th to make it 20-12. Eight minutes, two tries, same man, and the contest was effectively over. Sebastian Kris added another in the 63rd to push it to 26-12 and the Raiders closed it out 28-12.

Go back further and the game had already tipped once before that. Tom Trbojevic opened the scoring for the Sea Eagles inside three minutes, but the Raiders answered through Strange at the 10th and Xavier Savage at the 13th to lead 10-6, a lead they took into the sheds despite playing the last ten minutes of the half a man down after Kaeo Weekes was sin-binned in the 18th. Holding that margin short-handed mattered plenty once the third Strange try started the second-half avalanche.

The stat sheet doesn't scream 16-point win, and that's the interesting bit. Sea Eagles had 55% of the ball and ran for 1,635 metres to the Raiders' 1,387. They were the tidier side too, coughing it up 8 times to 9 and completing at 82% to the Raiders' 83%, near enough a wash. None of that mattered much because the Raiders did more with less: five line breaks to three, ten offloads to five, and 594 kicking metres to 497 that kept field position honest all night. Canberra also stayed out of the bin room, giving away just 4 penalties to Manly's 6.

Individually it was Strange's night with a hat-trick, backed by Savage and Kris getting one each, four different Raiders crossing in all. Manly got tries from Trbojevic and Koula but couldn't find a third, and with the Raiders holding a 32-33 tackle break count that's essentially even, the difference wasn't in the collisions. It was in who turned pressure into points.

The form line explains a fair bit of it. Coming in, the Raiders' hooker rating of 1200 dwarfed Manly's 955, and their forwards (1101 to 1048) and backs (893 to 805) both held modest edges too. Add a recent-form gap of 29.2 points scored per game against 16.8, and a Sea Eagles outfit that had been leaking 20 a game, and this result sits comfortably inside what the form suggested was coming.

Alphr's model backed the Raiders at 75% and picked them by 9.7 on a combined total of 44. The actual margin blew out to 16 and the total landed at 40, so the model had the right side and the right shape, just underestimated how far Strange and company would push it once the momentum turned in the second half. Raiders covered the 6.5-point line comfortably, and the under on 46.5 also came in. On a night the ledger says was close, the scoreboard says otherwise.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 82% |
| 1,387 | Run metres | **1,635** |
| 459 | Post-contact metres | **484** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **33** |
| **10** | Offloads | 5 |
| **89.2%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **594** | Kick metres | 497 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Raiders led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 5/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 6.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 10' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 13' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 18' Sin Bin — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 46' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 50' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 54' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 63' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 26-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.42 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 74.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 75% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 201 ELO points clear, 1635 to 1434. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Sea Eagles.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 1st against Sea Eagles 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Sea Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 29-28 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 1st · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 9W–9L | 50% |
| Sea Eagles | 9W–10L | 47% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Raiders 9W–9L (50%) and Sea Eagles 9W–10L (47%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Raiders get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1793.6m | Run Metres | 1490.8m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 344.6 | Tackles | 345.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 29.2 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 28 – 29 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R3 | Sea Eagles | 40 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 46 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R12 | Raiders | 14 – 42 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 9th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 16th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.74/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.37/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 6 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 44 | 48 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 718m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 80% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 14 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 603m/g | 506m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.43) +12% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.26) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 10/21g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/8g | 18/47g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 19/48g | 22% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 17/29g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 10' 51' 55' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/35g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 30/129g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 6/54g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 10/91g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 23/58g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/13g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/42g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/15g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/29g | 4% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 15/12g | 6/6g | 38% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 13 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Tommy Talau | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·0·0) | 10/10g | 2/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 3/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/23g | 3/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Michael Chee Kam | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 2/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Aaron Schoupp | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1635 · Sea Eagles 1434 · ELO difference: 201 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 (best 1256) | 1048 (best 1226) | Raiders +53 |
| Backs | 893 (best 1035) | 805 (best 928) | Raiders +88 |
| Halves | 1022 (best 1022) | 995 (best 995) | Raiders +27 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 955 | Raiders +245 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Raiders predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)