Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 60 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 42. Panthers led 0–26 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 10 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Panthers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Panthers have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
28%
Panthers
72%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 259-point ELO rating advantage (1620 vs 1362). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Panthers by 8.4 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Line / Spread
Panthers +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.8%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W L L L L | 18.2 |
Panthers | W W W W W | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Knights
10.8
Panthers
Avg Margin
-9.4
Knights
16.4
Panthers
Run Metres
1653
Knights
1812
Panthers
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
6.0
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Panthers have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Panthers).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Panthers get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Panthers predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: -8.4
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.