# Knights v Panthers — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 12 – 48 Panthers

_Panthers claw past Knights._

Half time: 0 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 28% / Panthers 72% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 08 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Mat Croker (52'), Jermaine McEwen (56') · Panthers: Luke Garner (3' 1st), Lindsay Smith (6'), Liam Henry (26'), Brian To'o (37' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (40' Tipped ⚡), Casey McLean (43' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Papali'i (62'), Casey McLean (66' Tipped ⚡), Izack Tago (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 72% | Won |
| Knights | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 12–48 Panthers in NRL Round 23 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Newcastle's night started with a bit of promise in the numbers that don't show up on the scoreboard. The Knights actually posted the better effective tackle rate, 89.8% to 87.6%, and out-kicked Penrith for territory, 701 metres to 665. Neither of those things mattered much once the tries started flowing the other way.

Where it fell apart was ball control and the moments that turn field position into points. Seventeen errors to nine, one line break to nine, and six penalties conceded against a single one from Penrith. That's not a team getting unlucky. That's a team handing over the footy and the free kicks in equal measure.

The scoreboard tells the rest. Panthers 48, Knights 12, and it was 26-0 at the break before Newcastle had so much as troubled the scorers. Luke Garner opened it inside two minutes, Lindsay Smith followed soon after, and by the 43rd minute Casey McLean had crossed to make it 30-0. Six tries to none before Newcastle got a look in.

Credit where it's due, the Knights didn't fold completely. Mat Croker got one back in the 51st minute and Jermaine McEwen followed five minutes later to drag the margin to 12-32. It was the best passage of footy Newcastle managed all night, but it barely dented what was already a comfortable lead. Isaiah Papali'i, a second from McLean, and Izack Tago closed it out in the final quarter as Penrith pulled away again.

The gulf showed up everywhere Penrith wanted it to. They ran for 2,119 metres to 1,282, banked 707 post-contact metres to 502, and offloaded eleven times to Newcastle's five. Add 60% of the ball and an 88% completion rate, and it's a side that barely had to defend its own errors because there weren't many to defend.

None of that should surprise anyone who looked at the pre-match numbers. Penrith's halves rated at 1242 against Newcastle's 994, about as wide a gap as you'll see on this sheet, and it played out exactly like you'd expect: Penrith controlling the ruck, the middle and the back end of sets while Newcastle scrambled. The form line pointed the same way. Penrith had won five straight coming in with an average winning margin of 16.4 points, while Newcastle sat on minus 9.4 over the same stretch, averaging almost 28 points conceded a game.

Alphr's model backed Penrith at 72% and got the winner right, but the margin was never going to hold up. Eight points was the call, thirty-six was the reality, and the combined total of 60 blew well past the projected 42. Six from sixteen on the card this week.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| Panthers | 26 | 22 | 48 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 40% | Possession | **60%** |
| 70% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| 1,282 | Run metres | **2,119** |
| 502 | Post-contact metres | **707** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| **89.8%** | Effective tackle % | 87.6% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| 17 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| **701** | Kick metres | 665 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 60 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 42. Panthers led 0–26 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 6/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 12.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 10 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Panthers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Panthers have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Luke Garner (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 5' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 25' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 37' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 39' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-24 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 43' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 0-30 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 51' Try — Mat Croker (Knights) — 4-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 56' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 10-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 62' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 12-42 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Try — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 12-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.25 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 72% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 259 ELO points clear, 1620 to 1362. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 8.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 30.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Knights 14th against Panthers 5th.

Knights come in fresher, 12 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-14 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 14th · Panthers 5th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Panthers 100% |
| Rest gap | Knights 12d · Panthers 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–7L | 30% |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 60% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Panthers have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Knights's 3 from 10 (30%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Panthers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| -9.4pts | Avg Margin | 16.4pts |
| 1653.4m | Run Metres | 1812.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 384.8 | Tackles | 392.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 1W–4L | 18.2 |
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Panthers | 14 – 22 | Knights |
| 2026 | R8 | Knights | 12 – 44 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R12 | Panthers | 6 – 25 | Knights |
| 2024 | R22 | Panthers | 22 – 14 | Knights |
| 2024 | R15 | Knights | 18 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 7th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.37/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 12th) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.74/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 10 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 195m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 85.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 32 | 47 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 798m/g | 779m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.6/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.1% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 12 | 10 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 524m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.44) -7% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.43) -7%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dane Gagai | FB | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/24g | 26/106g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 26/28g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 19/43g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 21/30g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Arthur | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/76g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/40g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/39g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 9% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/52g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/41g | 4% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 16 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 10/52g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 11 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 66' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 4/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 11 | Luke Garner | 2R | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaiah Papali'i | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 16 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1362 · Panthers 1620 · ELO difference: 259 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1059 (best 1259) | 1116 (best 1293) | Panthers +57 |
| Backs | 1044 (best 1120) | 1070 (best 1151) | Panthers +26 |
| Halves | 994 (best 994) | 1242 (best 1242) | Panthers +249 |
| Hooker | 1014 | 978 | Knights +36 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Panthers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)