Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 10 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 67% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
66%
Cowboys
34%
AI Match Overview
Eels are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts Eels by 5.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.62
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Line / Spread
Eels -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W L L L L | 15.6 |
Cowboys | W L L L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Eels
29.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-12.8
Eels
-8.6
Cowboys
Run Metres
1500
Eels
1722
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.0
Eels
5.0
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 8 of 12 games (67%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Eels get a +1.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1372 vs 1364), but the market favours Eels (@1.62).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Eels predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.