# Eels v Cowboys — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 19 – 18 Cowboys

_A point the difference as Eels deny Cowboys._

Half time: 12 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 66% / Cowboys 34% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 10 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (27' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (32' Tipped ⚡), Will Penisini (43' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Jaxon Purdue (14' 1st Tipped ⚡), Braidon Burns (51'), Jaxon Purdue (54' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 66% | Won |
| Cowboys | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 19–18 Cowboys in NRL Round 23 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eels beat the Cowboys 19-18 at CommBank Stadium, a one-point margin that flatters how tidy either side actually was with the ball. Look at the completion rate and the story gets messier: Cowboys ran at 95%, Eels at just 81%. Eels also coughed up 11 errors to the Cowboys' 5. A team that sloppy with the footy doesn't usually finish a game one point up, but here they did.

The lead changed hands early and Eels took hold of it without ever putting the game away. Jaxon Purdue opened the scoring for the Cowboys in the 13th minute. Josh Addo-Carr answered twice either side of the half-hour mark, in the 27th and 32nd, to push Eels in front 10-8. Will Penisini's try in the 43rd made it 16-8 at the break for a 12-8 half-time lead into a 16-8 scoreline, and it looked like some breathing room. It wasn't. Braidon Burns scored in the 51st and Purdue crossed again in the 53rd to drag the Cowboys within two, 18-16, and the contest stayed that tight until Mitchell Moses slotted a one-point field goal in the 74th minute to settle it at 19-18.

On the stat sheet, the Cowboys did plenty right and still lost. They out-gained Eels on run metres, 1,656 to 1,591, and edged post-contact metres too, 505 to 501. They controlled territory comfortably, booting 855 kick metres to the Eels' 619, and had a big edge in completion. None of it mattered because Eels found the extra gear where it counted: two line breaks to one, nine offloads to six, and the discipline to concede only 7 penalties against the Cowboys' 9. Cheap penalties and no reward for all that ball control will cost you a tight one, and it did here.

The halves matchup going in favoured the Cowboys heavily, 1,381 to 1,051 in Alphr's positional ratings, and their hooker rating was well clear too, 1,062 to 976. That's usually the kind of edge that shows up in territory and completion, and it did. What it didn't do was translate into enough points on the board, because the Eels forward pack rated stronger coming in, 1,069 to 995, and it was the Eels forwards and back three who found the tries when it mattered.

Form-wise neither side walked in flying. The Cowboys had won 1 of their last 5, averaging 20.4 points scored to 29 conceded, while the Eels had also won just 1 of 5, averaging 15.6 for and 28.4 against. On those numbers this was always going to be scrappy, and it was.

Alphr's model had Eels as 66% favourites pre-match, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and a combined total near 45. The actual result, a 1-point win, came in well under that projected margin but still landed the right side of the ledger. Eels covered the 3.5-point line, and the under on 46.5 total points was correct too. The model finished 6 from 16 on this match, a reminder that even a correctly tipped winner can arrive by a very different road than the one predicted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| Cowboys | 8 | 10 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 81% | Completion rate | **95%** |
| 1,591 | Run metres | **1,656** |
| 501 | Post-contact metres | **505** |
| **2** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **33** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.6%** | Effective tackle % | 88.2% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 33 |
| 11 | Errors | **5** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 619 | Kick metres | **855** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 6/16 on this match. Eels covered the 3.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 10 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 64% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 6-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 43' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 16-8 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 51' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 18-12 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 53' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 74' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 19-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.62 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 66.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Eels here: 66% to see off Cowboys.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Eels by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Eels to win, not to win big.

Eels have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 32-30 in 2026 Round 24.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 15th against Cowboys 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 8 · Cowboys 2 |
| Last meeting | Eels 32-30 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 15th · Cowboys 13th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 9W–5L | 64% |
| Cowboys | 3W–8L | 27% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 9 of 14 games (64%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.0pts |
| -12.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 1499.6m | Run Metres | 1722.4m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 366.4 | Tackles | 361.4 |
| 14.0 | Errors | 14.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 1W–4L | 15.6 |
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Eels | 32 – 30 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R10 | Cowboys | 30 – 33 | Eels |
| 2024 | R6 | Eels | 27 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R21 | Cowboys | 24 – 16 | Eels |
| 2023 | R13 | Eels | 24 – 16 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.37 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.21/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 9th) | 1.3/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.37/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 225m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 49 | 49 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 739m/g | 742m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.1% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 18 | 10 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 470m/g | 444m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.1% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Props 0.27/g (lg 0.17) +59% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Wingers 1.66/g (lg 1.25) +33% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.68) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 4/6g | 4/16g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/42g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | Replacement | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 17% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 11 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 11/11g | 9/17g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 32' |
| 6 | Dean Hawkins | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 16/58g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 9/80g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelma Tuilagi | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/16g | 18% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 9 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 2/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 54' |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 36% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 1/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Marly Bitungane | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | PR | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1372 vs 1364), but the market favours Eels (@1.62). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1364 · Cowboys 1372 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1069 (best 1306) | 995 (best 1264) | Eels +74 |
| Backs | 882 (best 973) | 885 (best 996) | Cowboys +3 |
| Halves | 1051 (best 1051) | 1381 (best 1381) | Cowboys +330 |
| Hooker | 976 | 1062 | Cowboys +86 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Eels predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)