AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Eels have a 56% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
66%
Cowboys
34%
AI Match Overview
Eels are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts Eels by 5.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.62
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Line / Spread
Eels -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.2%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WLLLL | 15.6 |
Cowboys | WLLLL | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Eels
29.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-12.8
Eels
-8.6
Cowboys
Run Metres
1500
Eels
1722
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.0
Eels
5.0
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 5 of 9 games (56%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 9 (33%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.4 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.4 pts
Home Win %
51%
Home Bias
Neutral
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1372 vs 1364), but the market favours Eels (@1.62).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Eels predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.5
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