# Dragons v Sharks — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 22 – 14 Sharks

_Dragons breathe fire on Sharks._

Half time: 16 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 40% / Sharks 60% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 09 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Emre Guler (4' 1st), Tyrell Sloan (21' Tipped ⚡), Hayden Buchanan (36' Tipped ⚡), Clinton Gutherson (47') · Sharks: Braden Uele (10'), Teig Wilton (16')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 60% | Lost |
| Dragons | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 22–14 Sharks in NRL Round 23 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dragons beat the Sharks 22-14 at Jubilee Stadium. Straightforward enough on paper, except the Sharks out-ran them, out-offloaded them and tackled at a higher rate all afternoon. This was a game the errors sheet decided, not the collision count.

Fifteen to six. That's the error count that mattered, Sharks to Dragons, and it explains why a team that conceded more metres, more line breaks and more tackle breaks still walked off with the points. St George won the fight for the ball far more than the fight for the ground.

The start suggested a shootout. Emre Guler opened it inside four minutes, Braden Uele hit back within six, and Teig Wilton's penalty try at the 15th had the Sharks in front 10-6. Then Tyrell Sloan restored the Dragons lead at 20 minutes, and Hayden Buchanan's try just before the break made it 16-14 at half-time, four tries in the opening 36 minutes and the margin never more than six either way. Clinton Gutherson's four-pointer early in the second half put the Dragons up 20-14, and from there the Sharks simply couldn't find the next try, despite Briton Nikora's late sin bin at 76 minutes suggesting the Sharks were still trying to force something.

Look at the shape of the stat sheet and it reads like an upset before you even check the scoreboard. Sharks ran for 1,574 metres to 1,524, offloaded 11 times to 9, broke more tackles, missed fewer of their own at 91.8% effective to 89.2%, and still lost by eight. That's a side that did most of the physical work and came up short where it counts.

Where the Dragons won it was control. Eighty-eight per cent completion against 63% is the gap that actually decided this, because it meant St George kept hold of the footy while Cronulla kept handing it back. Add 808 kick metres to the Sharks' 493 and the picture is a Dragons side happy to play territory, force repeat sets, and let field position do the rest. Four line breaks to two and 26 tackle breaks to 22 back that up, evidence they made the most of the ball they actually had.

The form line beforehand pointed the other way. Sharks arrived with four wins from five, an average winning margin of 4.6, and a defence that had been conceding under 17 a game. Dragons had one win from five and were leaking almost 26. The positional ratings had Sharks stronger everywhere but the hooker role, backs 1073 to 943, halves 1091 to 1048, and the model had them favourites at 60% with an expected margin of 5.3 in their favour off a combined total near 47.

None of that showed up on the day. The actual margin ran to eight points the other way, so the model's read missed by more than 13 points on the difference alone, and it's sitting at 2 from 16 on matches like this one. Sometimes the numbers point one way and the guys with the footy in their hands, holding onto it, decide otherwise.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Sharks | 14 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 63% |
| 1,524 | Run metres | **1,574** |
| **517** | Post-contact metres | 492 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **26** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| 9 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **91.8%** |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 26 |
| **6** | Errors | 15 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **808** | Kick metres | 493 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 60% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Dragons's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Emre Guler (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 10' Try — Braden Uele (Sharks) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 15' Penalty Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Hayden Buchanan (Dragons) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 46' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 76' Sin Bin — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -9.5%) — model probability 60.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 60%, but Dragons stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 189 ELO points clear, 1574 to 1385. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 23.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Dragons 11th against Sharks 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Sharks 8 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-16 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 11th · Sharks 7th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Sharks 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 18W–22L | 45% |
| Sharks | 26W–34L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Dragons 18W–22L (45%) and Sharks 26W–34L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Dragons get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Sharks's -0.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -2.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 1696.8m | Run Metres | 1735.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 325.6 | Tackles | 345.2 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 23.2 |
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Dragons | 24 – 16 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R14 | Sharks | 34 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R15 | Sharks | 30 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R25 | Dragons | 10 – 38 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R9 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.37 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 10th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Allan, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.37/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.55/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.37/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.7/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.84/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 16 | 13 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 49 | 45 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 732m/g | 732m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 10 | 19 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 491m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.68) +10%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.26) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.44) +39% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.43) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 15 in 16g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 2/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Hame Sele | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 9 in 19g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 7 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | Replacement | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 10' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1385 · Sharks 1574 · ELO difference: 189 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 (best 1287) | 924 (best 1267) | Dragons +137 |
| Backs | 943 (best 987) | 1073 (best 1158) | Sharks +130 |
| Halves | 1048 (best 1048) | 1091 (best 1091) | Sharks +43 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1155 | Dragons +45 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Sharks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-dragons-v-sharks
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)