Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 60% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 8 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Dragons's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
40%
Sharks
60%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 189-point ELO rating advantage (1574 vs 1385). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sharks by 5.3 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.5%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W L L L L | 23.2 |
Sharks | W W W W L | 21.4 |
Avg Conceded
25.8
Dragons
16.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
-2.6
Dragons
4.6
Sharks
Run Metres
1697
Dragons
1735
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.2
Dragons
4.4
Sharks
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Dragons 18W–22L (45%) and Sharks 25W–32L (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -5.3
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