# Dolphins v Roosters — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 12 – 64 Roosters

_Roosters put Dolphins to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 56% / Roosters 44% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 09 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Tevita Naufahu (12'), Tevita Naufahu (78') · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (9' 1st Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (18' Tipped ⚡), Victor Radley (28'), Hugo Savala (34'), Spencer Leniu (38'), James Tedesco (43' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (47' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (60' 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (67' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 56% | Lost |
| Roosters | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 12–64 Roosters in NRL Round 23 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this at a 0.6-point game, Dolphins by the barest of whiskers, with a combined total near 38. What actually turned up at Suncorp Stadium was a 64-12 demolition, a 52-point margin and 76 points on the board. Wrong side, wrong margin, wrong total. About as clean a miss as you'll see.

The read wasn't mad on paper. Dolphins came in on three wins from five, averaging 29 points a game with a plus-5 margin, and carrying a hooker rating of 1200 against the Roosters' 811, a gap that should mean something. It didn't, not on this night.

Mark Nawaqanitawase had the game sorted early. He opened the scoring in the 4th minute and had a second try by the 8th, and the Roosters were already 10-0 up before a mad passage just after the quarter-hour mark saw four players sin-binned inside a minute, two from each side. Tevita Naufahu got the Dolphins on the board at 11 minutes, and that was about the last bit of good news they had before the break. Billy Smith, Victor Radley, Hugo Savala and Spencer Leniu all crossed before half-time, and the Roosters walked off at the break leading 36-6. From there it only got worse: James Tedesco scored twice either side of the hour mark, Nawaqanitawase completed his hat-trick just after, and Daniel Tupou added two more late to push it out to 64-12.

The stat sheet tells you why the scoreboard ran away like that. Roosters held 55% of the ball and completed at 82% to the Dolphins' 69%, the kind of gap that lets a team dictate rather than react. They ran for 1,774 metres to 1,237, put on 620 post-contact metres to 394, and busted 42 tackles to 21 while offloading 11 times to keep sets alive. Ten line breaks to two says the rest. Dolphins missed 42 tackles compared to the Roosters' 21, and their effective tackle rate of 83.9% against 89.5% shows a defence that simply couldn't hold its line all night.

Form lines pointed the other way before kick-off. Dolphins were averaging fewer errors, more line breaks and a healthier margin over their last five, while the Roosters had been treading water at 0.8 points a game. None of that carried over. The Roosters looked like the sharper side across every category that matters, ball security, go-forward, footwork through the middle, and turned a coin-flip prediction into one of the more lopsided results you'll see.

Alphr's model finished 4 from 16 on this one, and the margin call was the main culprit. A 0.6-point expectation next to a 52-point actual result is about as wide as these misses get. Handy reminder that a competitive rating on paper doesn't always survive first contact, and Suncorp Stadium was where that lesson landed hardest.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Roosters | 36 | 28 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 69% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,237 | Run metres | **1,774** |
| 394 | Post-contact metres | **620** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| 83.9% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 13 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 336 | Kick metres | **522** |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 56% prediction for Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 76 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 38. Roosters led 6–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 4/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 34 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Roosters's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Roosters have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 8' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 9' Sin Bin — Spencer Leniu (Roosters) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 9' Sin Bin — Naufahu Whyte (Roosters) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 9' Sin Bin — Francis Molo (Dolphins) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 9' Sin Bin — Aublix Tawha (Dolphins) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 11' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 34' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 38' Try — Spencer Leniu (Roosters) — 6-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 43' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 6-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 47' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 6-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 59' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-52 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 6-58 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 6-64 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 10-64 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.95 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 56%, but Roosters stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 59 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1529. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 36-20 in 2026 Round 30.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 8th against Roosters 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 3 · Roosters 5 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 36-20 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 8th · Roosters 9th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Roosters 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6W–8L | 43% |
| Roosters | 32W–28L | 53% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 10-point edge: 32W–28L (53%) vs Dolphins's 6W–8L (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Dolphins get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.0pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 1845.6m | Run Metres | 1497.6m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 361.0 | Tackles | 364.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 29.0 |
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Dolphins | 20 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.53 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 14th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 12th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.16/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 9th) | 1.32/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.53/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.74/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 12th) | 1.16/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 12 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 170m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 41 | 51 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 773m/g | 720m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.2/g | 20.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 81.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 10 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.68) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 17 in 16g | 13/10g (0·1·2·0·1·2·1·4·2·0) | 6/8g | 23/26g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/11g | 31/71g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Tevita Naufahu | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 12' 78' |
| 5 | Jake Averillo | WG | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/6g | 11/22g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/16g | 22/78g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 2/27g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 6/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/24g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 15% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/24g | 6% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/19g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 47' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 13 in 19g | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·2·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 6/18g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' 72' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/2g | 31% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 13 in 18g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 9' 60' |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 9/15g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/14g | 22% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Egan Butcher | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/14g | 2% | — | 🏉 38' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1588 · Roosters 1529 · ELO difference: 59 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1138 (best 1289) | 1129 (best 1244) | Dolphins +9 |
| Backs | 1020 (best 1158) | 963 (best 1000) | Dolphins +57 |
| Halves | 1213 (best 1213) | 1202 (best 1202) | Dolphins +12 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 811 | Dolphins +389 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-dolphins-v-roosters
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)