AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 34 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Roosters's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Roosters have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 56% prediction for Dolphins — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 76 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 38. Roosters led 6–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
56%
Roosters
44%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1588 vs 1529). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.95
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.9%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WWWLL | 29.0 |
Roosters | WWLLL | 25.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Dolphins
24.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
5.0
Dolphins
0.8
Roosters
Run Metres
1846
Dolphins
1498
Roosters
Line Breaks
7.0
Dolphins
3.0
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Roosters hold a 11‑point edge: 31W–27L (53%) vs Dolphins's 5W–7L (42%) across all games Gerard Sutton has refereed for each side. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dolphins an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Dolphins predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +0.6
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