# Bulldogs v Warriors — NRL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 32 – 14 Warriors

_Bulldogs let the dogs loose on Warriors._

Half time: 20 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 70% / Warriors 30% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 09 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Viliame Kikau (22' 1st), Jethro Rinakama (31' Tipped ⚡), Enari Tuala (39'), Stephen Crichton (49'), Enari Tuala (68') · Warriors: Sam Healey (54'), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 70% | Won |
| Warriors | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 32–14 Warriors in NRL Round 23 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-four missed tackles. That's the number that undid the Warriors, and it's how the Bulldogs walked out of Accor Stadium 32-14 winners on Saturday.

Fourteen misses for the Bulldogs, forty-four for the Warriors. That gap tells most of the story on its own. The Bulldogs racked up six line breaks to none and 44 tackle breaks to 14, and every one of those numbers traces back to a Warriors line that couldn't hold its shape. An effective tackle rate of 85.3% against the Bulldogs' 94% doesn't look catastrophic on paper, but on the scoreboard it was exactly that.

The Bulldogs led 20-2 at half-time, and the timeline shows how that gap opened. Viliame Kikau scored first in the 21st minute to make it 8-2, Jethro Rinakama followed in the 31st for 12-2, and Enari Tuala crossed just before the break to push it to 18-2. Three tries in seventeen minutes against a defence that porous, and the Warriors were already chasing a game that had got away from them.

Stephen Crichton's try in the 49th made it 24-2. Sam Healey finally got the Warriors moving five minutes later, cutting it to 24-6, and Tuala's second try in the 67th stretched the margin back out to 30-8 before Roger Tuivasa-Sheck's try in the 77th tidied up the final scoreline at 32-14.

The pre-match numbers had actually favoured the Warriors up front and out wide: their forwards rated 1188 to the Bulldogs' 1054, their backs 1023 to 934. None of that showed up where it mattered. The Bulldogs ran for 1,235 metres to the Warriors' 974 and doubled them on post-contact metres, 444 to 346. Where the Bulldogs held a clear edge coming in was in the halves, rated 1075 to 947, and that showed in the kicking game too: 755 metres to 456, giving the Bulldogs control of field position for long stretches.

For the Warriors, this wasn't really an attacking problem. Their completion rate was fine at 83% against the Bulldogs' 84%, and they matched them error for error at eight apiece. Possession was competitive too, 44% to the Bulldogs' 56%. But none of that counts for much when your line is missing 44 tackles. Whatever the Warriors were doing with the ball, the issue was what happened without it.

Alphr's model had this one covered well before kick-off, giving the Bulldogs a 70% chance and pricing the margin at 6 points against Warriors ratings of 1493 to the Bulldogs' 1554. The final gap of 18 blew well past that projection, and the Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line comfortably. Given the Bulldogs arrived with the better recent form, three wins from five against the Warriors' two, and a far healthier average margin of 5.2 points to 0.2, the scale of the win probably shouldn't shock anyone. The model picked the right side. It just didn't see the Warriors' defence falling away quite that badly.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Warriors | 2 | 12 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 83% |
| **1,235** | Run metres | 974 |
| **444** | Post-contact metres | 346 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 14 |
| **5** | Offloads | 3 |
| **94.0%** | Effective tackle % | 85.3% |
| **14** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **7** |
| **755** | Kick metres | 456 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 4/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 53% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Try — Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs) — 8-2 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 31' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 12-2 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 38' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 18-2 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 49' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 24-2 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 54' Try — Sam Healey (Warriors) — 24-6 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 30-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 32-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 70.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 70% to see off Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 61 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1493. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warriors.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Bulldogs by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 39. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 18-6 in 2026 Round 21.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 3rd against Warriors 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 18-6 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 3rd · Warriors 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |
| Warriors | 17W–20L | 46% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 7-point edge: 16W–14L (53%) vs Warriors's 17W–20L (46%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.2pts |
| 1752.2m | Run Metres | 1667.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 349.4 | Tackles | 358.2 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 21.2 |
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Bulldogs | 18 – 6 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R25 | Warriors | 18 – 34 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R18 | Bulldogs | 13 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R11 | Bulldogs | 12 – 24 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R4 | Warriors | 16 – 14 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.26 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 9th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 9th) | 1.26/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.68/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.53/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.32/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.95/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 17 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 198m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 36 | 33 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 801m/g | 664m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.9% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 10 | 12 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 452m/g | 540m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.68) -1% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.43) -5%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.68) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Kiraz | FB | 8 in 13g | 8/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/5g | 8/27g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/4g | 5/18g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 12/23g | 26% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/7g | 30% | — | 🏉 39' 68' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 13/32g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 5/44g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 7/27g | 24% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/20g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 8/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | INT | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 8/12g | 6/21g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | CE | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 8/15g | 9/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | INT | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | Replacement | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1554 · Warriors 1493 · ELO difference: 61 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1054 (best 1214) | 1188 (best 1342) | Warriors +134 |
| Backs | 934 (best 1035) | 1023 (best 1178) | Warriors +89 |
| Halves | 1075 (best 1075) | 947 (best 947) | Bulldogs +128 |
| Hooker | 705 | 600 | Bulldogs +105 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)