Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
70%
Warriors
30%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Bulldogs carry a 61-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1493). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.0 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 21.2 |
Warriors | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Bulldogs
19.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
5.2
Bulldogs
0.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1752
Bulldogs
1668
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.0
Bulldogs
4.8
Warriors
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Bulldogs 14W–14L (50%) and Warriors 15W–17L (47%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Warriors's +0.2. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +6.0
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