Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 57% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
32%
Bulldogs
68%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 289-point ELO rating advantage (1606 vs 1318). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 15.4 |
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Wests Tigers
12.0
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-13.8
Wests Tigers
7.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1524
Wests Tigers
1872
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.8
Wests Tigers
4.8
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 3 from 8 (38%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Bulldogs).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Wests Tigers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -1.9.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.0
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