NRL | Round 22

alphr.com.au

WST
Wests Tigers
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 3 AUG, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers bucked the trend — Bulldogs historically win 80% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Wests Tigers defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42 — within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

68%BulldogsFavourite

Wests Tigers

32%

Bulldogs

68%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 289-point ELO rating advantage (1606 vs 1318). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.0 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.24

Lost ✗

Edge

-9.2%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +10.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-9.2%

Total Points

Under 42.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wests Tigers
WWLLL
15.4
Bulldogs
WWWLL
19.6

Avg Conceded

29.2

Wests Tigers

12.0

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-13.8

Wests Tigers

7.6

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1524

Wests Tigers

1872

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

3.8

Wests Tigers

4.8

Bulldogs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Bulldogs
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

WST
17%1W 5L
CBY
80%4W 1L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 4 of 5 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 63‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.4 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Bulldogs — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.4 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Bulldogs lead 4-1
May 2024WST 14 - 22 CBY
Mar 2023WST 22 - 26 CBY
Jun 2022WST 12 - 36 CBY
May 2022WST 36 - 22 CBY
Sep 2021WST 0 - 38 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST
1318Overall1606
CBY
ELO difference: -289 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

964Forwards1089
Best: 1217CBY +126Best: 1249
930Backs1149
Best: 1061CBY +218Best: 1200
1228Halves1431
Best: 1228CBY +203Best: 1431
1116Hooker1174
CBY +58

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST
Stat
CBY
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
15.4pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
29.2pts
Avg Conceded
12.0pts
-13.8pts
Avg Margin
7.6pts
1523.6m
Run Metres
1872.2m
3.8
Line Breaks
4.8
352.0
Tackles
366.6
9.6
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulldogs
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Tigers
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Tigers

Model Confidence

68%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.0

1/3 match predictions correct
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