# Wests Tigers v Bulldogs — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 28 – 14 Bulldogs

_Wests Tigers hunt down Bulldogs._

Half time: 20 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 32% / Bulldogs 68% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 03 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Jeral Skelton (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jahream Bula (19'), Jeral Skelton (29' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Doueihi (33' Tipped ⚡), Samuela Fainu (70') · Bulldogs: Jacob Preston (37' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Kiraz (51' Tipped ⚡), Josh Curran (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 68% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 28–14 Bulldogs in NRL Round 22 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty to four at the break, and on paper it should never have got that far. The Bulldogs walked in rated favourites, with the better forward pack (1089 to 964), the better backs (1149 to 930) and the stronger halves pairing by a distance (1431 to 1228). None of that showed up in the first half at CommBank Stadium.

Wests Tigers scored four unanswered tries before the Bulldogs troubled the board at all. Jeral Skelton opened it in the 13th minute, added a second in the 29th, Jahream Bula crossed in between and Adam Doueihi rounded it out in the 32nd. Jacob Preston got the Bulldogs on the scoreboard four minutes before half-time, but by then the damage was done and the margin sat at 20-4 at the break.

The second half told a different story, just not enough of one. Jacob Kiraz scored in the 51st to trim it to 20-8, and Wests Tigers lost Alex Seyfarth to the sin bin in the 59th, which should have been the invitation. The Bulldogs never took it. Samuela Fainu scored with the extra man off the field to push it to 26-8, Josh Curran got a late one back in the 78th, and the final whistle went with Wests Tigers up 28-14.

The stat sheet explains why the Bulldogs' class advantage never translated. Wests Tigers finished with 9 errors to 13, and completed at 79% against 67%. That gap in ball control is the difference between four tries in the first 32 minutes and a side scrambling to get back into a game it was supposed to be leading. The Bulldogs actually won the collision battle in patches, edging run metres 1,315 to 1,260 and line breaks 4 to 3, but it counted for little when the ball kept coming back off them.

Wests Tigers also had the edge in the small stuff that adds up: 30 tackle breaks to 29, 6 offloads to 4, and 635 kick metres to 539, which gave them the territory to keep applying pressure. The Bulldogs' effective tackle percentage of 89.2% against 87.3% suggests their defence wasn't the problem either. It was the ball they kept giving away in dangerous areas that cost them.

Form lines going in had the Bulldogs averaging 19.6 points scored and just 12 conceded across their last five, against a Wests Tigers side leaking 29.2 a game on average. Whatever was behind those numbers, it didn't turn up here. Wests Tigers scored more than their recent average and held a Bulldogs attack that had been performing to a standard that made none of this look likely on paper.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 20 | 8 | 28 |
| Bulldogs | 4 | 10 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| 1,260 | Run metres | **1,315** |
| **391** | Post-contact metres | 389 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **30** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| 87.3% | Effective tackle % | **89.2%** |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 30 |
| **9** | Errors | 13 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **635** | Kick metres | 539 |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 63% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 29' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 36' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 51' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 20-8 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 59' Sin Bin — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 20-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 26-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Josh Curran (Bulldogs) — 28-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 67.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 68% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 289 ELO points clear, 1606 to 1318. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 13th against Bulldogs 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 5 · Bulldogs 5 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 32-0 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 13th · Bulldogs 2nd |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Bulldogs 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Bulldogs | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -2.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.4pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| -13.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 1523.6m | Run Metres | 1872.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 352.0 | Tackles | 366.6 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 15.4 |
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R13 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R9 | Bulldogs | 22 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R3 | Bulldogs | 26 – 22 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R15 | Bulldogs | 36 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 12th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.06 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.16 conceded/game). Key man: Burton, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.26/g (def 12th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.16/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 15 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 46 | 35 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 685m/g | 812m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 81.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 16 | 21 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 504m/g | 459m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.69) +10% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.43) +47% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 10 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/4g | 35% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' 29' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Alex Twal | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/19g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 14 | Sione Fainu | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Fonua Pole | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Kiraz | FB | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/4g | 1/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/8g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 11/45g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.25 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 3/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | INT | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1318 · Bulldogs 1606 · ELO difference: 289 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 964 (best 1217) | 1089 (best 1249) | Bulldogs +126 |
| Backs | 930 (best 1061) | 1149 (best 1200) | Bulldogs +218 |
| Halves | 1228 (best 1228) | 1431 (best 1431) | Bulldogs +203 |
| Hooker | 1116 | 1174 | Bulldogs +58 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)