AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 8 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers bucked the trend — Bulldogs historically win 80% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 68% prediction for Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 42 — within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
32%
Bulldogs
68%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 289-point ELO rating advantage (1606 vs 1318). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.2%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 15.4 |
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Wests Tigers
12.0
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-13.8
Wests Tigers
7.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1524
Wests Tigers
1872
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.8
Wests Tigers
4.8
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 4 of 5 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 6 (17%). That's a 63‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.4 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Bulldogs — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.4 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.0
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