Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
37%
Dolphins
63%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 58-point ELO rating advantage (1570 vs 1512). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 6.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.10
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.5%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.5%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Dolphins | W W W L L | 36.6 |
Avg Conceded
21.4
Warriors
21.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-1.4
Warriors
15.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1580
Warriors
1950
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.6
Warriors
7.4
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Warriors 13W–22L (37%) and Dolphins 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1570 vs 1512), but the market favours Warriors (@1.91).
The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -6.5
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