# Warriors v Dolphins — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 18 – 20 Dolphins

_Dolphins ride the wave past Warriors in a tight one._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 37% / Dolphins 63% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 01 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (9' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (36' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (59' Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Marshall-King (25'), Oryn Keeley (30'), Jamayne Isaako (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 63% | Won |
| Warriors | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 18–20 Dolphins in NRL Round 22 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different footy philosophies were on show at Go Media Stadium, and only one of them ended up on the scoreboard that mattered. The Dolphins won 20-18, and they did it without the ball for long stretches, without the cleaner completion rate, and without winning the arm-wrestle up front. All they needed was a knack for finding the line.

Warriors held 52% of possession and completed at 83% to the Dolphins' 80%. They coughed up the footy just 9 times to 11. On paper that's the side playing the patient, low-risk game, building position and grinding out 653 post-contact metres. Dolphins took the opposite route: fewer sets, more errors, and 9 line breaks to the Warriors' 3. Ambition beat control, and it wasn't particularly close on that metric.

Farnworth got the Dolphins away inside four minutes, and Watene-Zelezniak hit back five minutes later for the first of his two tries. But two tries in four minutes either side of the half-hour mark, Marshall-King in the 25th and Keeley in the 29th, blew it out to 6-16 and put the Warriors in a hole. Watene-Zelezniak's second pulled it back to 10-16 before the break, and Dolphins went to the sheds up 16-12.

The Warriors kept coming. Halasima's try in the 58th levelled it at 16-16, and for a while it looked like the possession game might tell in the end. Felise Kaufusi's sin bin in the 73rd should have been the moment the Warriors made their extra man count. Instead it was Jamayne Isaako, five minutes later, who settled it with the Dolphins' fourth try of the night, 20-18.

The positional numbers explain a fair bit of this. Dolphins came in rated well clear in the backs, 1166 to 985, and comfortably ahead in the forwards too, 1121 to 972. That's a side built to manufacture line breaks out of broken footy, and 9 of them says the rating wasn't wrong. Warriors' one clear edge was at hooker, 1200 to 958, which likely had something to do with them still controlling the ball as well as they did. It just wasn't enough on its own.

Form lines pointed the same way. Dolphins arrived averaging 36.6 points a game and a margin of plus-15.4 across their last five. Warriors were sitting on 20 points a game and a negative margin. A two-point final margin here is actually the Warriors playing above that form, not below it, even in a loss.

Alphr's model had Dolphins favourites at 63%, with a projected win by 6.5 and a combined total of 44. The winner was right, the line was covered, and the under on 45.5 landed too. The margin call ran a bit hot against the real 2-point result, but in a match this tight, that's a reasonable miss rather than a bad one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Dolphins | 16 | 4 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| **1,925** | Run metres | 1,736 |
| **653** | Post-contact metres | 530 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 44 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| **11** | Offloads | 9 |
| 85.0% | Effective tackle % | **86.2%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **44** |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 619 | Kick metres | **653** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 7/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 2.5-point line. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Oryn Keeley (Dolphins) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 35' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 58' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 73' Sin Bin — Felise Kaufusi (Dolphins) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 78' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 18-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.10 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 63%, but Warriors stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 58 ELO points clear, 1570 to 1512. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warriors.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 6.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Dolphins 8th.

Dolphins come in fresher, 14 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Warriors 4 · Dolphins 5 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-16 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Dolphins 8th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Dolphins 0% |
| Rest gap | Warriors 6d · Dolphins 14d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 13W–23L | 36% |
| Dolphins | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Warriors 13W–23L (36%) and Dolphins 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Dolphins's -1.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 36.6pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -1.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.4pts |
| 1579.6m | Run Metres | 1950.4m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 7.4 |
| 370.0 | Tackles | 342.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 20.0 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 36.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Warriors | 16 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R17 | Dolphins | 26 – 24 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R8 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R11 | Dolphins | 12 – 16 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.28 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.61 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.28/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.61/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.61/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.89/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 7 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 195m/g | 227m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 44 | 53 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 653m/g | 776m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 534m/g | 506m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.68) -1% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | CE | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 3 in 9g | 6/10g (3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 18/30g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 36' |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 5/29g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 14/52g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Te Maire Martin | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Healey | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 9 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | PR | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Freddy Lussick | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 17 in 15g | 16/10g (3·0·1·2·0·1·2·1·4·2) | 3/7g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 5/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 11 in 18g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| 5 | Jake Averillo | WG | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/11g | 1/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1570 vs 1512), but the market favours Warriors (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1512 · Dolphins 1570 · ELO difference: 58 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 972 (best 1254) | 1121 (best 1310) | Dolphins +149 |
| Backs | 985 (best 1103) | 1166 (best 1196) | Dolphins +180 |
| Halves | 1332 (best 1332) | 1315 (best 1315) | Warriors +16 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 958 | Warriors +242 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)