# Titans v Panthers — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 26 – 30 Panthers

_Panthers pounce on a gallant Titans._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 28% / Panthers 72% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 02 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Brian Kelly (48'), Jayden Campbell (53'), Sam Verrills (64'), Phillip Sami (66' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (73' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Edwards (27' Tipped ⚡), Blaize Talagi (30'), Casey McLean (37' Tipped ⚡), Blaize Talagi (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 72% | Won |
| Titans | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 26–30 Panthers in NRL Round 22 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six points, six line breaks, 46 tackle busts, and still nothing to show for it. That's the ledger the Titans walked away with from Cbus Super Stadium, where the Panthers got home 30-26 despite being second best in almost every category that usually decides these things.

Start with what the Titans got right, because there's plenty. They held 52% of the ball and completed at 89% to the Panthers' 75%, the kind of discipline that normally wins arm-wrestles. They ran for 1,841 metres to 1,752, ground out 603 post-contact metres, and made life miserable in defence for the Panthers markers, forcing 46 missed tackles to their own 25. Eight offloads to five, six line breaks to five, and only eight errors in the whole contest. On paper this is a performance that wins most Saturdays.

It didn't win this one, and the timeline explains why. Thomas Jenkins opened the scoring in the 18th minute, and by halftime the Panthers had piled on three more through Dylan Edwards, Blaize Talagi and Casey McLean to lead 24-0. That's four tries in nineteen minutes of match time, and it meant the Titans spent the rest of the night chasing a lead built while their line-speed and completion numbers meant nothing at all.

To their credit, they didn't fold. Brian Kelly got them off the mark in the 48th minute, Jayden Campbell followed in the 53rd, and when Izack Tago went to the sin bin in the 63rd, the Titans made him pay twice over: Sam Verrills crossed a minute later, then Phillip Sami added his first in the 66th to cut the margin to four. Sami struck again in the 73rd to put the Titans in front, 26-24, and for a few minutes it looked like the biggest form-reversal of the round. Then Talagi got his second in the 82nd, and the Panthers snuck home by four.

That's the story of the missed tackles, really. The Panthers gave up 46 of them and 25 penalties' worth of field position, coughing the ball up 11 times against the Titans' eight, yet still had enough in the bank from that first-half blitz to survive. Their forward pack and back line went into this one rated well above the Titans' on paper (1158 to 1039 up front, 1152 to 1035 in the backs), and while the Titans' halves and hooker actually rated stronger, none of that stopped four unanswered tries before the break.

Form lines said this was coming, more or less. The Panthers arrived on a five-from-five run averaging a plus-17.6 margin, the Titans on one win from five and minus-5.4.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 0 | 26 | 26 |
| Panthers | 24 | 6 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **89%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,841** | Run metres | 1,752 |
| **603** | Post-contact metres | 520 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| **92.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.0% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| **8** | Errors | 11 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 557 | Kick metres | **634** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The model went 8/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 12.5-point line. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 9 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Panthers's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Panthers have a 50% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 18' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 27' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 29' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 37' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 48' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 53' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 63' Sin Bin — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 64' Try — Sam Verrills (Titans) — 14-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 66' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 73' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 26-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 82' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 26-30 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.24 (edge -11.0%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 72% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 311 ELO points clear, 1614 to 1303. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 16.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Panthers 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Titans 19-18 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Panthers 5th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |
| Panthers | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Panthers have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 16 (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Panthers).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Titans's +0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 9.2pts |
| -5.4pts | Avg Margin | 17.6pts |
| 1639.8m | Run Metres | 1854.4m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 333.4 | Tackles | 381.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.4 |
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Titans | 19 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R27 | Panthers | 18 – 12 | Titans |
| 2023 | R25 | Titans | 14 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2022 | R8 | Titans | 4 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2021 | R10 | Titans | 12 – 48 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 8th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.72 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.39/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.39/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.72/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 211m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 55 | 44 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 676m/g | 777m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.9% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 17 | 10 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 554m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.44) -5% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.43) -7% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.33/g (lg 0.16) +106% · Fullbacks 0.7/g (lg 0.43) +63% · 2nd Rows 0.67/g (lg 0.44) +52%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 26/60g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 18/64g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 11 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 11/24g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 12 in 18g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 1/6g | 31/62g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 73' |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 9/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 15/32g | 28% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/70g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/23g | 2% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 10 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/45g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/40g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Weaver | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/8g | 2/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 10 in 16g | 10/10g (2·1·0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 30' 83' |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/8g | 3/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Luke Garner | 2R | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/10g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1303 · Panthers 1614 · ELO difference: 311 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1039 (best 1288) | 1158 (best 1299) | Panthers +119 |
| Backs | 1035 (best 1185) | 1152 (best 1224) | Panthers +118 |
| Halves | 1262 (best 1262) | 1156 (best 1156) | Titans +106 |
| Hooker | 1153 | 1001 | Titans +151 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)