Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 9 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Panthers's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Panthers have a 50% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
28%
Panthers
72%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 311-point ELO rating advantage (1614 vs 1303). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Panthers by 7.5 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.0%
Line / Spread
Panthers +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 20.4 |
Panthers | W W W W W | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
25.8
Titans
9.2
Panthers
Avg Margin
-5.4
Titans
17.6
Panthers
Run Metres
1640
Titans
1854
Panthers
Line Breaks
3.8
Titans
6.2
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Panthers have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Panthers).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Panthers predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -7.5
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