# Sharks v Cowboys — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 32 – 12 Cowboys

_Sharks hunt down Cowboys._

Half time: 26 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 72% / Cowboys 28% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 03 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Braydon Trindall (4' 1st), Addin Fonua-Blake (17'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (30' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (34' Tipped ⚡), Cameron McInnes (60') · Cowboys: Griffin Neame (47'), Braidon Burns (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 72% | Won |
| Cowboys | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 32–12 Cowboys in NRL Round 22 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six nil at the break. That's not a scoreboard, that's a cliff face, and the Cowboys spent the second half trying to climb it with no rope.

The Sharks had it done by half-time, which is the honest way to put it. Braydon Trindall got them moving inside three minutes, Addin Fonua-Blake made it 12-0 by the 16th, and Ronaldo Mulitalo helped himself to two tries either side of the half-hour mark to push it to 24-0. Four different try scorers before the Cowboys had so much as troubled the scoreboard. That's not a slow start from Townsville, that's a non-start.

Griffin Neame got the Cowboys on the board in the 46th, and for a moment there was a game again. Then Tom Dearden spent ten minutes in the bin from the 58th, and Cameron McInnes made them pay two minutes later to push it to 30-6. Braidon Burns' try in the 77th was tidy but academic. Final score 32-12, and the only real question by full-time was whether the Cowboys could get within twenty.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already said. Sharks ran for 1,639 metres to the Cowboys' 1,352, completed at 79% against 68%, and turned that ball security into seven line breaks to one. When you're that clinical with the footy and the other side is fumbling through at 68%, six tries to two isn't lucky, it's arithmetic.

Discipline told its own story too. Three penalties conceded against seven is the kind of gap that lets a team like the Sharks build phases and keep the Cowboys' line under constant pressure, and 595 kick metres to 476 gave them the territory to do it. The Cowboys actually shaded a couple of the collision numbers, 38 missed tackles to the Sharks' 38 evenly split, and they offloaded more too, 8 to 6. None of it mattered much when the guts of the game, ball control and line-break efficiency, was so lopsided.

Pre-match, the Sharks' hooker rating of 1166 against the Cowboys' 1038 was the standout gap on paper, and McInnes' try late was a fair reflection of that edge showing up when it counted. The halves battle was supposed to run the other way, Cowboys rated 1196 to 1173, but form coming in told a different tale: Cowboys arriving on the back of an average concession of 27.4 points a game, worse than the Sharks' 21.2. That leaky defensive form met a Sharks side clicking in exactly the areas, completion and line breaks, that punish it.

Alphr's model had Sharks by 8.2 and a combined total of 42. The lopsided nature of it blew past the margin, final gap landing at 20, but the total of 44 was close enough to call it a good read, within 2 points. Sharks covering the 7.5 line was never really in doubt after the first half hour, and the under on 45.5 landed too. Four from sixteen on the finer detail isn't a number to boast about, but the shape of the game, Sharks dominant, Cowboys chasing a lead that never should've got that big, was exactly as advertised.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 26 | 6 | 32 |
| Cowboys | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 68% |
| **1,639** | Run metres | 1,352 |
| **549** | Post-contact metres | 485 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 38 |
| 6 | Offloads | **8** |
| 87.5% | Effective tackle % | **88.7%** |
| **38** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **13** | Errors | 14 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **595** | Kick metres | 476 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 7.5-point line. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 70% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 16' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 29' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 34' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 46' Try — Griffin Neame (Cowboys) — 26-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Sin Bin — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 60' Try — Cameron McInnes (Sharks) — 30-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 32-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.38 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 72% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 162 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1393. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sharks by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 7th against Cowboys 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 7 · Cowboys 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 26-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 7th · Cowboys 11th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 30W–13L | 70% |
| Cowboys | 22W–19L | 54% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 43 games (70%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 22 from 41 (54%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1721.0m | Run Metres | 1716.4m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 343.2 | Tackles | 358.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 14.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 20.6 |
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Sharks | 26 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R8 | Cowboys | 46 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R2 | Cowboys | 12 – 36 | Sharks |
| 2024 | SF | Sharks | 26 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R21 | Cowboys | 30 – 22 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.53 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 17th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.37 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.53/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 11th) | 1.05/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.37/g (def 8th) | 1.32/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.74/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 0.79/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.16/g (def 12th) | 1.37/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 13 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 40 | 48 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 729m/g | 753m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.9/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 75.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 13 | 9 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 534m/g | 444m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.26) +27%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.68) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 2/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 12/13g | 1/6g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 34' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 3/7g | 34% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/9g | 4/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/7g | 24% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 0/7g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 2/7g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Billy Burns | Replacement | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 9 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 9 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Braidon Burns | WG | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Harrison Edwards | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | CE | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Marly Bitungane | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Kaiden Lahrs | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | 2R | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/16g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1554 · Cowboys 1393 · ELO difference: 162 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1029 (best 1270) | 1038 (best 1265) | Cowboys +9 |
| Backs | 1095 (best 1191) | 1055 (best 1122) | Sharks +40 |
| Halves | 1173 (best 1173) | 1196 (best 1196) | Cowboys +22 |
| Hooker | 1166 | 1038 | Sharks +128 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Sharks predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)