Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
72%
Cowboys
28%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 162-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1393). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Sharks by 8.2 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Sharks -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W W L L | 20.6 |
Cowboys | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Sharks
27.4
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-0.6
Sharks
-3.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1721
Sharks
1716
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
5.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 42 games (71%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 21 from 40 (53%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Sharks predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +8.2
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