# Sea Eagles v Roosters — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 4 – 20 Roosters

_Roosters strut past Sea Eagles._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 55% / Roosters 45% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 02 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (17' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Roosters: Billy Smith (31' Tipped ⚡), Angus Crichton (34'), Egan Butcher (49')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 55% | Lost |
| Roosters | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 4–20 Roosters in NRL Round 22 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-nine tackle breaks to twenty. That gap in the collision is basically the whole story of Roosters' 20-4 win over Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval, and it's why the scoreboard reads the way it does despite Sea Eagles holding the ball more.

Sea Eagles actually started well. Tolutau Koula crossed in the 16th minute for a 4-0 lead, and for a quarter of an hour it looked like the home side might have something. Then the roof caved in a bit. Billy Smith levelled it in the 31st minute, Angus Crichton put Roosters in front two minutes later, and by the break it was 12-4. Egan Butcher added a third in the 49th to push it to 4-18, and from there it was just a matter of managing the clock.

The possession numbers tell you Sea Eagles had the ball more, 52 to 48 per cent, but that's about the only column they won convincingly. Roosters ran for 1,421 metres to 1,157, and 556 of those came after contact against Sea Eagles' 439. Add in the tackle-break count and you've got a Roosters pack that kept getting over the advantage line and kept getting quick play-the-balls off it. That's a hard cycle to defend for eighty minutes, and Sea Eagles didn't. They missed 39 tackles to Roosters' 20, and an effective tackle rate of 87.5 per cent against 91.3 tells the same story from a different angle.

Sea Eagles were tidier with ball in hand, 15 errors to 16 and a completion rate of 67 per cent, and they even edged the line-break count 2 to 1. None of it mattered much when the collision was this lopsided. Eight penalties conceded to four didn't help either, handing Roosters cheap field position on top of everything they were already generating through work rate.

The pre-match positional read had Roosters' forward pack rated higher, 1107 to 997, and their halves narrowly ahead too, 1348 to 1307. Sea Eagles held an edge at hooker, 1091 to 1018, but that wasn't enough to offset a forward battle that got won up front and stayed won. Form lines pointed the same way: Roosters were averaging 29.8 points a game across their last five to Sea Eagles' 17.6, with a positive margin of 4.4 against Sea Eagles sitting at minus 4. This result didn't buck that trend so much as confirm it.

Alphr's model had this one close, giving Sea Eagles 55 per cent and picking them by 0.3 points in a game projected to hit 42 combined. The final score landed on 24, eighteen points under that projection, and Roosters won by 16 rather than losing by a fraction. That's a rough read on the head-to-head and the margin both, though the model's under 43.5 total call came in fine. Four from sixteen on this match overall, which is a reminder that the ratings can nail the shape of a low-scoring arm wrestle while still getting the winner wrong.

Sea Eagles will look at the middle third of the ground and know where the game got away from them. Roosters just kept running it back at them until something gave.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Roosters | 12 | 8 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 67% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| 1,157 | Run metres | **1,421** |
| 439 | Post-contact metres | **556** |
| **2** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| 87.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.3%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| **15** | Errors | 16 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **495** | Kick metres | 384 |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 55% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 24 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 42. Roosters led 4–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 49' Try — Egan Butcher (Roosters) — 4-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.72 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 55.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 0 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 55%, but Roosters stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Roosters sit 35 ELO points clear, 1499 to 1464, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 33-16 in 2026 Round 4.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 9th against Roosters 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 33-16 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 9th · Roosters 10th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Roosters 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 21W–20L | 51% |
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 12-point edge: 37W–22L (63%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–20L (51%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 1611.4m | Run Metres | 1609.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 356.8 | Tackles | 360.0 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 17.6 |
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Sea Eagles | 16 – 33 | Roosters |
| 2024 | SF | Roosters | 40 – 16 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R21 | Roosters | 34 – 30 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R2 | Sea Eagles | 21 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R23 | Roosters | 26 – 16 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 4th there (1.06 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 9th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Tedesco, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.78/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 9th) | 1.78/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.39/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 11th) | 1.17/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 11 | 12 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 175m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 41 | 50 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 733m/g | 722m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 20.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 81.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 515m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Fullbacks 0.49/g (lg 0.43) +14% · Wingers 1.41/g (lg 1.25) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/15g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 22/35g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 20/33g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 17' |
| 4 | Tom Trbojevic | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/11g | 38/57g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 12 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·0) | 1/11g | 40/57g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 5/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/27g | 40/136g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 9/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 17/95g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tommy Talau | INT | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 8/14g | 40% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/37g | 12% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 12/20g | 3/8g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 13 in 18g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·2·1·2) | 15/22g | 8/9g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 13 in 17g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1499 vs 1464), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.72). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1464 · Roosters 1499 · ELO difference: 35 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 997 (best 1251) | 1107 (best 1274) | Roosters +111 |
| Backs | 985 (best 1067) | 975 (best 1039) | Sea Eagles +11 |
| Halves | 1307 (best 1307) | 1348 (best 1348) | Roosters +41 |
| Hooker | 1091 | 1018 | Sea Eagles +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Sea Eagles favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)