Win Probability
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 55% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 24 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 42. Roosters led 4–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
55%
Roosters
45%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 45%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Roosters carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1499 vs 1464). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.72
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.2%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.2%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 17.6 |
Roosters | W W L L L | 29.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Sea Eagles
25.4
Roosters
Avg Margin
-4.0
Sea Eagles
4.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1611
Sea Eagles
1610
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.2
Sea Eagles
4.0
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 8-point edge: 35W–21L (63%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–17L (55%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Roosters get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1499 vs 1464), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.72).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +0.3
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