Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 65% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 4.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 26 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 46. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Storm have a 73% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
35%
Storm
65%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. Eels are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Storm carry a 314-point ELO rating advantage (1686 vs 1372). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Storm by 4.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.8%
Line / Spread
Storm +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.8%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 20.8 |
Storm | W W W W L | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Eels
17.6
Storm
Avg Margin
-8.4
Eels
10.0
Storm
Run Metres
1605
Eels
1777
Storm
Line Breaks
4.8
Eels
3.6
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 66 games (73%), significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 38 (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Storm get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's -1.9. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Storm predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.9
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