# Eels v Storm — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 10 – 16 Storm

_Storm blow away Eels in a tight one._

Half time: 4 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 35% / Storm 65% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 31 July, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (24'), Charlie Guymer (45') · Storm: Eliesa Katoa (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tui Kamikamica (34'), Xavier Coates (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 65% | Won |
| Eels | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 10–16 Storm in NRL Round 22 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty tackle breaks to eighteen. That's the number that explains how Storm went home from CommBank Stadium with a 16-10 win over the Eels, because a side that keeps getting off the deck and through arm tackles at that rate is going to wear a defence down eventually, and that's exactly what happened.

The scoreboard had this one tight all night. Eliesa Katoa opened it up for Storm in the 16th minute, Josh Addo-Carr levelled it for the Eels eight minutes later, and then Tui Kamikamica put Storm back in front before the break. Storm led 10-4 at half-time and never gave that lead back, even when Charlie Guymer got the Eels within two just after the restart. Xavier Coates finished the job in the 69th minute and Storm held on from there.

The Eels actually won some real battles on paper. Four line breaks to one is a lopsided number in anyone's language, and it says the Eels' backs found space when they needed it, no surprise given they went into this one rated the stronger backline, 1084 to 966. Problem is, line breaks without support count for less than they should, and the Eels couldn't turn that shape into enough points on the board.

Everywhere else, Storm just did the unglamorous stuff better. They completed at 84% to the Eels' 68%, coughed the ball up seven times to fourteen, and ran for 1,715 metres to 1,408, with 685 of those coming after contact. That's a forward pack asserting itself, and it lines up with Storm's edge in the hooker rating, 1229 to 822, a gap wide enough to matter when it comes to controlling the ruck and the tempo of the game.

Defensively the story was just as clear. The Eels missed 40 tackles to Storm's 18, and an effective tackle rate of 87.9% against 93.7% tells you where the extra field position and extra points came from. Storm's kicking game did its part too, 732 metres to 577, which meant the Eels spent more of the night starting sets deeper than they wanted to.

None of this should shock anyone who looked at the form line. Storm arrived on four wins from five, averaging 27.6 points scored and just 17.6 conceded, against an Eels side that had lost three of five and was leaking almost 30 a game. Storm being the more reliable, harder-nosed outfit was the form story coming in, and it was the story that played out.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 65% and picked the margin at 4.9 points, with the actual result landing at 6. That's about as close as these calls get. The total was the one miss, tipped at 46 but the game finished on 26, a reminder that a tight, error-strewn arm wrestle doesn't always translate to a high score no matter how the pre-match numbers read.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Storm | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 68% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,408 | Run metres | **1,715** |
| 527 | Post-contact metres | **685** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| 87.9% | Effective tackle % | **93.7%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| 14 | Errors | **7** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| 577 | Kick metres | **732** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 65% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 4.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 26 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 6/16 on this match. Storm covered the 10.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Storm have a 69% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 24' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 33' Try — Tui Kamikamica (Storm) — 4-8 · win-prob swing -17 pts
- 44' Try — Charlie Guymer (Eels) — 8-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 69' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.35 (edge -10.8%) — model probability 65.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 314 ELO points clear, 1686 to 1372. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Storm, which says ELO Difference and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Storm by 4.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Storm to win, not to win big.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 34-8 in 2026 Round 11.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 14th against Storm 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 2 · Storm 8 |
| Last meeting | Storm 34-8 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 14th · Storm 3rd |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Storm 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14W–27L | 34% |
| Storm | 42W–19L | 69% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 42 of 61 games (69%), significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 41 (34%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1605.0m | Run Metres | 1777.2m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 366.2 | Tackles | 333.0 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 20.8 |
| Storm | 4W–1L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Eels | 8 – 34 | Storm |
| 2026 | R1 | Storm | 52 – 4 | Eels |
| 2025 | R1 | Storm | 56 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R21 | Eels | 14 – 32 | Storm |
| 2024 | R11 | Storm | 48 – 16 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 14th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Lomax, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.56 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 10th there (1.61 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.28/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.61/g (def 10th) | 2.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.06/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.39/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.28/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 13 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 48 | 54 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 744m/g | 707m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 17 | 20 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 547m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.25) +8% · Centres 0.64/g (lg 0.68) -6% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34% · Wingers 1.67/g (lg 1.25) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 1/4g | 4/15g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 14/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/4g | 14/29g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 10 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 8/16g | 42% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 6 | Dean Hawkins | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/18g | 16/57g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 9/79g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 17% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/17g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 12 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·4·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 1/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 7/15g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 13 in 14g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·3·0) | 5/8g | 1/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/9g | 5/10g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 9 in 18g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Ativalu Lisati | LK | 0 in 7g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Bronson Garlick | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Chan | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1372 · Storm 1686 · ELO difference: 314 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1017 (best 1206) | 978 (best 1197) | Eels +39 |
| Backs | 1084 (best 1194) | 966 (best 1073) | Eels +118 |
| Halves | 981 (best 981) | 1046 (best 1046) | Storm +66 |
| Hooker | 822 | 1229 | Storm +407 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Storm predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)