Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 66% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 30 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 47. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 16 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dragons bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 47% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
34%
Raiders
66%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Raiders ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Raiders carry a 337-point ELO rating advantage (1678 vs 1342). Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.1 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.3%
Line / Spread
Raiders +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.3%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W L L L L | 26.4 |
Raiders | W W W W W | 30.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.4
Dragons
17.6
Raiders
Avg Margin
-1.0
Dragons
12.4
Raiders
Run Metres
1705
Dragons
1813
Raiders
Line Breaks
4.8
Dragons
6.6
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Raiders have won 7 of 15 games (47%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 2 from 13 (15%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Raiders predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.1
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