# Dragons v Raiders — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 18 – 12 Raiders

_Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Raiders._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 34% / Raiders 66% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 02 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Mathew Feagai (9' 1st), Corey Allan (56' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Matthew Timoko (23' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (38' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 66% | Lost |
| Dragons | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 18–12 Raiders in NRL Round 22 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight minutes into the second half, Corey Allan crossed to put the Dragons in front for good, and that's the moment this game actually turned. Locked at 10-10 at the break, the Dragons had spent 40 minutes trading blows with a Raiders side that came in warm favourites. Allan's try at the 55th minute settled it at 14-10, and the Dragons never gave it back, closing it out 18-12 at WIN Stadium.

The scoring pattern tells its own story. Mathew Feagai opened up in the 9th minute, only for Matthew Timoko to hit back twice, in the 23rd and again in the 37th, dragging the Raiders level going into the sheds. Timoko finished with a double and was the difference-maker for the visitors on the scoreboard. But after half-time it was all Dragons, with Feagai and Allan doing the damage between them and nothing coming back the other way.

Look at the completion numbers and it's not hard to see why the Dragons controlled the second half. They finished at 83% compared to the Raiders' 64%, and that gap in discipline with the ball showed up everywhere else. Ten errors to 14 doesn't sound like much on its own, but paired with 56% possession it meant the Dragons simply had more chances to apply pressure and fewer moments where they handed it back cheaply.

Up front, the Dragons were the stronger side on the day regardless of what the ratings said before kickoff. They ran for 1,625 metres to the Raiders' 1,368, added 634 post-contact metres to the Raiders' 583, and busted 21 tackles to just 13. That's a forward pack getting go-forward and legs after the tackle, and it's the kind of platform that let the halves dictate territory even though the pre-match numbers had the Raiders well ahead in that department, 1269 to 1109.

Defensively, the ledger is lopsided. The Raiders missed 21 tackles to the Dragons' 13, and while the effective tackle percentages finished almost dead level, 91.7 to 91.6, the raw miss count matters when it's happening in the right parts of the field. Add in 611 kick metres to the Raiders' 388 and the Dragons were putting the Raiders back in their own half all day, forcing them to work out of trouble rather than play off the back foot.

None of this lines up with what the Raiders had been doing lately. Five wins from their last five, an average winning margin of 12.4 points, and a defence conceding just 17.6 a game coming in. Against that, the Dragons arrived having won only once in five and leaking 27.4 points a game on average. On paper this was one-way traffic.

Alphr's model had the Raiders at 66% to win, with ELO ratings of 1678 to 1342 and a predicted margin of 4.1 points on a combined total of 47. The Dragons winning by 6 wasn't far off that margin read, but the model had the wrong team taking it out, and the total landed 17 points under expectations in a genuine arm-wrestle. Call it 1 from 16 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Raiders | 10 | 2 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 64% |
| **1,625** | Run metres | 1,368 |
| **634** | Post-contact metres | 583 |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| **21** | Tackle breaks | 13 |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| **91.7%** | Effective tackle % | 91.6% |
| **13** | Missed tackles | 21 |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **611** | Kick metres | 388 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 66% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 30 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 47. The model went 1/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 17 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Dragons bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 41% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 23' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 37' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 10-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 55' Try — Corey Allan (Dragons) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.45 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 66% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 337 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1342. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Raiders by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Raiders to win, not to win big.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 17.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 12th against Raiders 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 3 · Raiders 7 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-16 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 12th · Raiders 1st |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 3W–12L | 20% |
| Raiders | 7W–10L | 41% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Raiders have won 7 of 17 games (41%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dragons get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 1704.8m | Run Metres | 1812.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 332.6 | Tackles | 338.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 26.4 |
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Raiders | 24 – 16 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R18 | Raiders | 28 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R19 | Dragons | 26 – 36 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R7 | Raiders | 20 – 14 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 16th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Allan, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.11 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2.11 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.44/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.11/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.89/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.26/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 16 | 14 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 165m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 47 | 45 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 741m/g | 692m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.8% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 10 | 28 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 483m/g | 610m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34% · 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.44) +14%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.26) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.44) +41% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 2/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 15 in 15g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 3/4g | 13/16g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 3/23g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 6/18g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/2g | 22% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Michael Molo | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 1/18g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $71.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Hame Sele | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/35g | 0% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/8g | 2/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 38' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.25 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1342 · Raiders 1678 · ELO difference: 337 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1134 (best 1281) | 1121 (best 1313) | Dragons +13 |
| Backs | 1157 (best 1197) | 1129 (best 1187) | Dragons +28 |
| Halves | 1109 (best 1109) | 1269 (best 1269) | Raiders +160 |
| Hooker | 1060 | 971 | Dragons +89 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)