Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.4 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 74 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 45. Broncos led 18–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 74 points was 30 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Broncos's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
75%
Rabbitohs
25%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 197-point ELO rating advantage (1501 vs 1304). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Broncos by 9.4 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.5%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W W L | 25.6 |
Rabbitohs | L L L L L | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
18.8
Broncos
29.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
6.8
Broncos
-12.6
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1618
Broncos
1513
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
6.2
Broncos
4.8
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 20 games (60%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Broncos's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Broncos predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.4
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