# Broncos v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 60 – 14 Rabbitohs

_Broncos put Rabbitohs to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 75% / Rabbitohs 25% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 01 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Ezra Mam (15' 1st), Jack Gosiewski (25'), Kotoni Staggs (35' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (42'), Deine Mariner (50'), Ben Talty (55' Tipped ⚡), Deine Mariner (57'), Kotoni Staggs (63' Tipped ⚡), Ezra Mam (67' 1st), Reece Walsh (77' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (31'), Tallis Duncan (40' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Hubner (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 75% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 60–14 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 22 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos 60, Rabbitohs 60... no, 60 to 14. Written down like that it looks like a hiding from the first whistle. It wasn't. At half-time it was 18-8, a ten-point margin, the kind of scoreline that still has a Rabbitohs fan thinking about a comeback. Whatever was said in that sheds, it didn't survive the third quarter.

Broncos scored six unanswered tries either side of the break before Souths got back on the board through Lachlan Hubner in the 70th minute, by which point the contest had long since left the building. Ezra Mam started it in the 15th minute and finished it with his second in the 66th, bookending a night where Broncos crossed eleven times to three. Kotoni Staggs and Deine Mariner both grabbed doubles, and Reece Walsh got in on it late for good measure.

The stat sheet explains why the last 40 minutes ran away from Souths the way it did. Broncos broke the line ten times to three, busted 44 tackles to 26, and threw the ball around with 10 offloads to Souths's four. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team that kept finding metres after contact too, 579 to 342, which tells you Broncos forwards were getting go-forward even after the first man arrived.

Souths were actually tidier with the footy, fewer errors at 12 to 13 and a completion rate of 76% against 78%, so this wasn't a case of Rabbitohs spraying it everywhere. It was a case of not being able to stop the other side once they had it. Missed tackles tell that story bluntly: 44 missed by Souths against 26 by Broncos, and an effective tackle rate of 85.1% simply wasn't going to hold against a Broncos backline rated at 1104 coming into the game versus Souths's 894.

That gap in the backs was always the worry for Rabbitohs, and it showed. Souths actually came in with the stronger halves and hooker on paper, 1100 and 1200 against 1042 and 1003, but general play completion and go-forward matter more than individual class when your outside backs are getting run around all night.

Form lines pointed this way too. Broncos arrived on four wins from five, averaging 25.6 points scored and just 18.8 conceded. Souths were 0 from 5, shipping 29.8 a game. Suncorp just confirmed the trend rather than overturning it.

Alphr's model backed Broncos at 75% and got the winner right, no argument there. Where it came unstuck was the margin, tipping Broncos by 9.4 and a total of 45 points. The actual margin was 46, the actual total 74. A flat 6 from 16 on the finer detail of this one, and fair to say the model saw a comfortable Broncos win coming without picking just how comfortable comfortable would turn out to be.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 18 | 42 | 60 |
| Rabbitohs | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,864** | Run metres | 1,271 |
| **579** | Post-contact metres | 342 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **10** | Offloads | 4 |
| **90.8%** | Effective tackle % | 85.1% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **648** | Kick metres | 512 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.4 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 74 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 45. Broncos led 18–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 6/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 14.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 74 points was 30 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Broncos's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 24' Try — Jack Gosiewski (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 31' Try — Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (Rabbitohs) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 35' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 39' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 18-8 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 41' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 22-8 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 49' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 28-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 54' Try — Ben Talty (Broncos) — 34-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 56' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 40-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 46-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 66' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 52-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 70' Try — Lachlan Hubner (Rabbitohs) — 54-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 58-14 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.18 (edge -15.5%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -15.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 75% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 197 ELO points clear, 1501 to 1304. Form leans Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 9.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 5, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Broncos 6th against Rabbitohs 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 5 · Rabbitohs 5 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 48-6 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 6th · Rabbitohs 17th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12W–8L | 60% |
| Rabbitohs | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 20 games (60%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -12.6pts |
| 1617.8m | Run Metres | 1513.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 332.8 | Tackles | 377.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 25.6 |
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 48 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R10 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 14 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R2 | Broncos | 28 – 18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 36 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.72 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.26 conceded/game). Key man: Walters, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 12th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 10th) | 0.47/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.72/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) | 1.05/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.26/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 12th) | 1.58/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 7 | 5 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 121m/g | 151m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 48 · 42 | 38 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 668m/g | 641m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 12.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.3% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 12 | 13 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 587m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.26) +65% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.68) +6% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 16/32g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 5 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 27/47g | 26% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 38/76g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 63' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 12 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/17g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 6/23g | 38% | — | 🏉 50' 57' |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 17/34g | 46% | — | 🏉 15' 67' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 9/57g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Hunt | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/24g | 26/109g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 13/63g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/64g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/8g | 9/50g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 4/54g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/48g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 3/15g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (0·1·3·1·1·4·0·0·1·0) | 8/19g | 16/19g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/4g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 1 in 6g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryan Gray | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 7/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Host | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 14 | Siliva Havili | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Fletcher | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1501 · Rabbitohs 1304 · ELO difference: 197 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1095 (best 1251) | 1072 (best 1206) | Broncos +23 |
| Backs | 1104 (best 1140) | 894 (best 992) | Broncos +210 |
| Halves | 1042 (best 1042) | 1100 (best 1100) | Rabbitohs +58 |
| Hooker | 1003 | 1200 | Rabbitohs +197 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)