Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 41, within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 21–20. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 40% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
61%
Titans
39%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Wests Tigers carry a 40-point ELO rating advantage (1317 vs 1277). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 5.4 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.53
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.3%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W L L L L | 16.0 |
Titans | W L L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Wests Tigers
28.8
Titans
Avg Margin
-8.8
Wests Tigers
-8.8
Titans
Run Metres
1567
Wests Tigers
1675
Titans
Line Breaks
3.2
Wests Tigers
4.0
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours Wests TigersBelinda Sharpe
23 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Wests Tigers have won 2 of 5 games (40%), significantly stronger than Titans's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (5 games for Wests Tigers).
Avg Total
42.1 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.52
SB Away %
33%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.8 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Titans's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.4
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.