NRL | Round 20

alphr.com.au

WST
Wests Tigers
VS
GLD
Titans
LEICHHARDT OVAL, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 20 JULY, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (21 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 40.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 41 — within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 21–20. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

61%Wests TigersFavourite

Wests Tigers

61%

Titans

39%

AI Match Overview

Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Wests Tigers carry a 40-point ELO rating advantage (1317 vs 1277). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 5.4 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wests Tigers to Win @1.53

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.3%

Line / Spread

Wests Tigers -5.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.3%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wests Tigers
WLLLL
16.0
Titans
WLLLL
20.0

Avg Conceded

24.8

Wests Tigers

28.8

Titans

Avg Margin

-8.8

Wests Tigers

-8.8

Titans

Run Metres

1567

Wests Tigers

1675

Titans

Line Breaks

3.2

Wests Tigers

4.0

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Belinda Sharpe21 games since 2019

Each team's win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

WST
25%1W 3L
GLD
25%1W 3L

Both sides have a similar record when Belinda Sharpe officiates — Wests Tigers 1W–3L (25%) and Titans 1W–3L (25%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 40.3 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Wests Tigers — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

40.3 pts

Home Win %

48%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 4-1
Sep 2025WST 28 - 36 GLD
Jun 2024WST 18 - 10 GLD
Jun 2023WST 12 - 28 GLD
Mar 2023WST 10 - 22 GLD
Mar 2022WST 6 - 8 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST
1317Overall1277
GLD
ELO difference: +40 in favour of Wests Tigers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1093Forwards1060
Best: 1320WST +33Best: 1285
837Backs886
Best: 908GLD +48Best: 997
1070Halves954
Best: 1070WST +116Best: 954
844Hooker912
GLD +68

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST
Stat
GLD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
16.0pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
24.8pts
Avg Conceded
28.8pts
-8.8pts
Avg Margin
-8.8pts
1566.8m
Run Metres
1675.2m
3.2
Line Breaks
4.0
353.8
Tackles
333.2
10.0
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Tigers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Tigers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Tigers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%

Model Confidence

61%

Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.4

3/3 match predictions correct
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