# Wests Tigers v Titans — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 21 – 20 Titans

_Wests Tigers roar back to pounce on Titans._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 61% / Titans 39% · Leichhardt Oval, Sydney · Sun, 20 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Taylan May (13'), Jeral Skelton (24' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (76' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Jaylan De Groot (3' 1st), Phillip Sami (31' Tipped ⚡), Jaylan De Groot (34' 1st), AJ Brimson (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 61% | Won |
| Titans | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 21–20 Titans in NRL Round 20 at Leichhardt Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers 21, Titans 20 at Leichhardt Oval, and the lead changed hands enough times to make anyone watching feel seasick.

Jaylan De Groot got the Titans moving inside three minutes, and from there it was a genuine arm-wrestle. Taylan May squared it up by the 12th minute, Jeral Skelton put Wests Tigers in front just after the twenty, and then De Groot struck again to level things at 12-12 in the 33rd. Somewhere in the run to the break the Titans found two more points to lead 14-12 at half-time, the kind of scoreline that tells you neither side had worked out how to hold the other out.

The margins stayed tight all night, but the shape of the game told a clearer story than the scoreboard did. Wests Tigers ran for 1,674 metres to the Titans's 1,370, and that gap showed up where it counts: 41 tackle breaks to 23, 15 offloads to 6, and 528 post-contact metres of just refusing to go down easily. Eight line breaks to four is the kind of number that should have put this one away by 20, not 1.

It didn't, because the Titans stayed miserly with the footy when the Tigers weren't. Just 12 errors to 14, a cleaner 72% completion rate, and 524 kick metres to control where the ball actually was. That's a side happy to sit back and defend field position, and for long stretches it worked, even with Wests Tigers holding 55% of possession.

Where it fell over for the Titans was in defence, plain and simple. Missing 41 tackles against 23 is not a number you can paper over, and eventually it cost them. AJ Brimson's try in the 65th minute had the Titans up 18-16 and looking like they might hold on despite the leaky line, but Skelton crossed for his second in the 76th to tie it at 20-20. Adam Doueihi settled the whole thing with a one-point field goal in the 79th.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had Wests Tigers as 5.4-point favourites off ratings of 1317 to 1277, with a 61% win probability. Close enough to right, in the end, even if the margin came in at 1 rather than 5. The predicted total of 46 landed within five of the actual 41, and the model's under call on 49.5 held up.

It's worth noting the Titans came in with the better recent scoring form, 20 points a game to the Tigers's 16, and a stronger backline and hooker rating on paper. None of that showed up in the areas that actually decided this one: go-forward, contact, and discipline, where Wests Tigers gave away just 3 penalties to the Titans's 8. When the numbers are that lopsided in the collision and a game still comes down to a field goal after the siren's practically ringing, that's not really a formline story anymore. That's just Leichhardt Oval doing what Leichhardt Oval does.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| Titans | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **76%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,674** | Run metres | 1,370 |
| **528** | Post-contact metres | 469 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **15** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 14 | Errors | **12** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 431 | Kick metres | **524** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 41, within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 21–20. The model went 5/16 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 5.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 40% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 12' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 23' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 31' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 65' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 16-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 76' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 20-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 79' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 21-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.53 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 61.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 61%, but Titans stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 40 ELO points clear, 1317 to 1277.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 36-28 in 2026 Round 15.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 14th against Titans 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 4 · Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 36-28 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 14th · Titans 17th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Belinda Sharpe** — 23 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Belinda Sharpe | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 40% |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 42.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Wests Tigers have won 2 of 5 games (40%), significantly stronger than Titans's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (5 games for Wests Tigers).

Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.8 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Titans's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1566.8m | Run Metres | 1675.2m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 353.8 | Tackles | 333.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 1W–4L | 16.0 |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Wests Tigers | 36 – 28 | Titans |
| 2025 | R27 | Titans | 36 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R15 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 10 | Titans |
| 2023 | R15 | Titans | 28 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 10 – 22 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.81 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.19 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.18 conceded/game). Key man: Brimson, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.12/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th) | 1.25/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.12/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.18/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.19/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.06/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.81/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 15 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 83.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 38 | 33 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 679m/g | 665m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 10.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 15 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 515m/g | 560m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.34/g (lg 0.16) +113% · Fullbacks 0.72/g (lg 0.43) +67% · 2nd Rows 0.67/g (lg 0.45) +49%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.43) +44% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leichhardt Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunia Turuva | FB | 10 in 17g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Charlie Staines | WG | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | no games | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/6g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 76' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Alex Twal | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Doueihi | LK | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 4/12g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Tristan Hope | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Fonua Pole | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Bird | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 2/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 3' 34' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/7g | 2/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | INT | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $51.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | David Fifita | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1317 · Titans 1277 · ELO difference: 40 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1093 (best 1320) | 1060 (best 1285) | Wests Tigers +33 |
| Backs | 837 (best 908) | 886 (best 997) | Titans +48 |
| Halves | 1070 (best 1070) | 954 (best 954) | Wests Tigers +116 |
| Hooker | 844 | 912 | Titans +68 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)