# Storm v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 16 – 18 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles survive a scare against Storm._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 75% / Sea Eagles 25% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sat, 19 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Xavier Coates (15' 1st Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (64' 1st Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (72' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (22' Tipped ⚡), Tolutau Koula (26' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (32' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 75% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 16–18 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 20 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had Storm winning this by 7.5. Sea Eagles won it by 2, the other way around. That's not a near miss, that's the model backing the wrong horse entirely, and it's worth working out why.

The ratings made sense on paper. Storm's halves were rated at 1409 against Sea Eagles' 1114, a gap that usually settles a game on its own. Instead Sea Eagles led 16-6 at half-time and Storm spent the second half chasing a start they never had. Jason Saab, Tolutau Koula and Reuben Garrick all crossed inside a ten-minute window either side of the 22nd to 32nd minute, turning a 4-2 Storm lead into a 16-6 buffer that held all the way to full-time.

Xavier Coates was the one thing that kept Storm honest, scoring all three of their tries, the first at 14 minutes and the other two late at 64 and 71. Take him out of the equation and Storm manage nothing. He hauled them from 6-16 down to within two, 14-16, but there was no fourth try left in them.

Where the model's read genuinely broke was discipline with the footy. Sea Eagles completed at 90% to Storm's 67%, and coughed up just 11 errors to Storm's 16. That's the kind of gap that erases a class advantage in the halves. Storm had the better individual pieces and Sea Eagles simply held onto the ball more often.

Storm were the better side in the collision, no argument. They broke 27 tackles to Sea Eagles' 15, offloaded nine times to three, and gained more ground after contact, 623 metres to 604. All of that says a forward pack doing damage. But it didn't translate to points early enough, and Sea Eagles' defence, despite missing 27 tackles to Storm's 15, made the ones that mattered.

Territory tells the rest of the story. Sea Eagles kicked for 859 metres against Storm's 653, and paired that with 52% possession. Storm were rated stronger up front, 1088 to 1058, and it showed in the volume of ball they ran back, 1,778 metres to 1,805, close enough to a wash. But field position plus the completion rate gap meant Sea Eagles were doing their damage in better parts of the ground.

Form lines pointed at Storm too. Five wins from five coming in, average margin of 14.6, against a Sea Eagles side that had won three of five with an average margin of 8. On the stats alone, Alphr's 75% call for Storm was reasonable. The under on the total, pegged at 47.5, landed fine at 34 points.

But footy doesn't always follow the ratings sheet. Sea Eagles held the ball better, controlled the boot, and got three tries into the board inside a ten-minute burst before Storm could find any rhythm. Coates did what he could alone. It wasn't enough, and the model's gone 5 from 16 on this one to prove it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| Sea Eagles | 16 | 2 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 67% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| 1,778 | Run metres | **1,805** |
| **623** | Post-contact metres | 604 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 15 |
| **9** | Offloads | 3 |
| **94.7%** | Effective tackle % | 89.6% |
| **15** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 653 | Kick metres | **859** |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 75% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 16 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Storm historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 22' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 25' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 32' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 64' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 71' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 14-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 74.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 8 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 75% to see off Sea Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 236 ELO points clear, 1708 to 1472. Form leans Storm's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Sea Eagles.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Storm by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 40. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 2nd against Sea Eagles 7th.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 13 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 5 · Sea Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 2nd · Sea Eagles 7th |
| Finals odds | Storm 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Rest gap | Storm 7d · Sea Eagles 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 4W–2L | 67% |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–3L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 3 from 6 (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Storm).

Storm get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sea Eagles's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.2pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| 14.6pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1860.6m | Run Metres | 1746.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 326.8 | Tackles | 352.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 5W–0L | 30.2 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Storm | 42 – 20 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R17 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 4 | Storm |
| 2025 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 48 | Storm |
| 2024 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 20 | Storm |
| 2023 | R17 | Storm | 24 – 6 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.56 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 10th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Hughes, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.31/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.38/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 3 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 239m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 41 | 43 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 707m/g | 739m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.1/g | 13.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 1 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 517m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.43) +16% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.33/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.64/g (lg 0.68) -6% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Meaney | FB | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 2/9g | 19/39g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/15g | 15% | — | — |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | WG | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 5/20g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 10 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 4/7g | 35/34g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 64' 72' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 34/95g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 30/66g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 17/42g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 7/41g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 4/6g | 12/29g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/5g | 4/41g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/35g | 36% | — | — |
| 15 | Tui Kamikamica | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 5/47g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/14g | 14/89g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 11 in 15g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/4g | 0/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Tom Trbojevic | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/11g | 1/3g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Reuben Garrick | WG | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 2/11g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/27g | 0/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tommy Talau | INT | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1708 · Sea Eagles 1472 · ELO difference: 236 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1088 (best 1288) | 1058 (best 1230) | Storm +30 |
| Backs | 998 (best 1106) | 1141 (best 1200) | Sea Eagles +143 |
| Halves | 1409 (best 1409) | 1114 (best 1114) | Storm +294 |
| Hooker | 1040 | 1032 | Storm +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Storm predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)