Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 75% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 16 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Storm historically win 75% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
75%
Sea Eagles
25%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Storm carry a 236-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1472). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Storm by 7.5 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.33
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.4%
Line / Spread
Storm -8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.4%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W W | 30.2 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Storm
16.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
14.6
Storm
8.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1861
Storm
1746
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
4.2
Storm
5.8
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours StormWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 2 from 5 (40%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Storm).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Storm's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Storm predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +7.5
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