AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 49 — within 1 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
60%
Roosters
40%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 40%. Roosters are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sharks counter with Halves Control and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Roosters carry a 33-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1513). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 2.0 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Line / Spread
Sharks -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWLLL | 19.6 |
Roosters | WWWLL | 27.4 |
Avg Conceded
26.8
Sharks
19.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
-7.2
Sharks
8.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1734
Sharks
1706
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.2
Sharks
4.8
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Todd Smith officiates — Sharks 8W–4L (67%) and Roosters 7W–4L (64%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1513), but the market favours Sharks (@1.63).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sharks predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +2.0
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