# Sharks v Roosters — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 31 – 18 Roosters

_Sharks devour Roosters._

Half time: 20 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 60% / Roosters 40% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 18 July, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: William Kennedy (5' 1st), Teig Wilton (18'), Nicho Hynes (27'), Billy Burns (58'), Chris Vea'ila (67') · Roosters: Daniel Tupou (12' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (33' Tipped ⚡), Angus Crichton (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 60% | Won |
| Roosters | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 31–18 Roosters in NRL Round 20 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Roosters had a crack. Tupou, Tedesco and Crichton all crossed, and for a stretch after half-time they were within a converted try. But 17 errors and 40 missed tackles will undo any side, and against a Sharks outfit playing with ball in hand, that's exactly what happened.

Sharks won 31-18 at Sharks Stadium, up 20-12 at the break and never seriously threatened after that.

The shape of it was there from the first five minutes. William Kennedy opened the scoring, Tupou hit back for the Roosters, then Sharks put together the spell that mattered: Teig Wilton at 17 minutes, Nicho Hynes at 27, and suddenly it was 18-6. Tedesco pulled one back before the break, but Sharks still led by eight at half-time and had the ball far more often to show for it. Crichton's try on 48 minutes got the Roosters within four, the closest they'd get. Billy Burns answered at 57, Chris Vea'ila put it well beyond reach at 66, and Braydon Trindall's field goal in the 74th was just the exclamation point.

The stat sheet tells you why the margin didn't shrink further. Sharks ran 55% of the possession and completed at 81% to the Roosters' 65%, which is the difference between a side that controls a game and one that's constantly handing it back. Ten errors against seventeen says the same thing from another angle. Six line breaks to one, 40 tackle breaks to 29, seven offloads to three: Sharks were harder to hold up and quicker to find the gap when it opened.

Roosters weren't blown off the park up front. They came in rating stronger in forwards, 1144 to 1026, and backs, 1164 to 1027. But the halves and hooker matchup ran the other way, Sharks 1188 and 1270 against 1015 and 1175, and that's where a game like this gets decided. Go-forward without control at the back means you're always defending your own errors, and 40 missed tackles is what a defence looks like when it's been asked to do too much chasing.

There's an argument the Roosters were unlucky to be facing a side clearly up for it. Their form over the last five had them the better outfit on paper, three wins to two, averaging 27.4 points to the Sharks' 19.6, and conceding under 20 a game. None of that showed up here. Whatever was working for them across that stretch didn't survive 81% completion and 577 post-contact metres from the home side.

Alphr's model had Sharks favourites at 60%, tipping them by 2 points and predicting a 48-point total. The actual result was Sharks by 13, total of 49. The lean was right, the total nearly bang on, the margin nowhere close. Sharks covered the line, the over came in, and the model banked another one on the ledger, 5 from 16 on the night overall.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| Roosters | 12 | 6 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 65% |
| **1,811** | Run metres | 1,306 |
| **577** | Post-contact metres | 468 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **7** | Offloads | 3 |
| **90.9%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **10** | Errors | 17 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 545 | Kick metres | **561** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 49, within 1 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 2.5-point line. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 68% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 12' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 20-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 48' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 57' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 24-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 66' Try — Chris Vea'ila (Sharks) — 30-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 74' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 31-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.63 (edge +5.3%) — model probability 60.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 2 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 60%, but Roosters stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Roosters sit 33 ELO points clear, 1547 to 1513, so the model is backing Sharks against the ratings gap. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Sharks, which says Halves Control and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Sharks by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 46-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Sharks 9th against Roosters 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 4 · Roosters 6 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 46-10 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 9th · Roosters 8th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 13W–6L | 68% |
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 19 games (68%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 16 (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 27.4pts |
| 26.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 1733.8m | Run Metres | 1706.2m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 363.2 | Tackles | 394.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 19.6 |
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 27.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Roosters | 46 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R16 | Roosters | 27 – 8 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R6 | Sharks | 22 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2025 | FW1 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.65 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 9th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 10th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.65/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 10th) | 1.44/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.59/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 8th) | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 37 | 46 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 724m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 20.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81% | 82.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 11 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 522m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.78/g (lg 0.68) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/6g | 24% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/5g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/8g | 3/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 7 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/6g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | Replacement | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/15g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·2) | 13/15g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 13 in 15g | 11/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chad Townsend | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 12 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1513), but the market favours Sharks (@1.63). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1513 · Roosters 1547 · ELO difference: 33 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1026 (best 1258) | 1144 (best 1311) | Roosters +118 |
| Backs | 1027 (best 1052) | 1164 (best 1200) | Roosters +136 |
| Halves | 1188 (best 1188) | 1015 (best 1015) | Sharks +173 |
| Hooker | 1270 | 1175 | Sharks +94 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Sharks predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)