Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 49, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 67% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
60%
Roosters
40%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 40%. Roosters are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Sharks counter with Halves Control and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Roosters carry a 33-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1513). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 2.0 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Line / Spread
Sharks -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W L L L | 19.6 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 27.4 |
Avg Conceded
26.8
Sharks
19.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
-7.2
Sharks
8.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1734
Sharks
1706
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.2
Sharks
4.8
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 10-point edge: 10W–5L (67%) vs Roosters's 8W–6L (57%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sharks get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's +0.0.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1513), but the market favours Sharks (@1.63).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sharks predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +2.0
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