Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 56 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 41. Raiders trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–16. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 12 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
73%
Eels
27%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 304-point ELO rating advantage (1655 vs 1351). Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Raiders by 10.2 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.32
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.1%
Line / Spread
Raiders -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.1%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W W | 25.6 |
Eels | W L L L L | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
18.0
Raiders
26.8
Eels
Avg Margin
7.6
Raiders
-9.2
Eels
Run Metres
1806
Raiders
1606
Eels
Line Breaks
5.0
Raiders
4.4
Eels
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Raiders 24W–28L (46%) and Eels 28W–31L (47%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Raiders get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Eels's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Raiders predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +10.2
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