# Raiders v Eels — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 40 – 16 Eels

_Raiders fight back to pillage Eels._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 73% / Eels 27% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 19 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Jed Stuart (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Zac Hosking (7'), Jed Stuart (52' 1st Tipped ⚡), Simi Sasagi (59' Tipped ⚡), Owen Pattie (73'), Owen Pattie (77'), Ethan Strange (79' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Charlie Guymer (13'), Zac Lomax (29' Tipped ⚡), Sean Russell (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 73% | Won |
| Eels | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 40–16 Eels in NRL Round 20 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eels led at the break, Raiders led on the full-time siren, and the 24-point gap between those two facts tells you where this one was decided. Final score: Raiders 40, Eels 16, but for the first 40 minutes the ledger read the other way.

Jed Stuart got the Raiders moving inside three minutes, Zac Hosking followed at the six-minute mark and the home side looked to be running away with it at 10-0. The Eels had other ideas. Charlie Guymer hit back at 13 minutes, Zac Lomax levelled the arm-wrestle at 28, and Sean Russell put the visitors in front just before the half-hour, 12-14 and climbing. By the break it was Eels 16, Raiders 12, and the away side had the lead they'd built off the back of three tries in the space of 24 minutes.

That lead didn't survive long into the second half. Jed Stuart's second try, in the 52nd minute, dragged the scores level at 16-16 and reset the contest completely. From there it was one-way traffic. Simi Sasagi put Raiders back in front seven minutes later, and Owen Pattie's double either side of the 75-minute mark, at 72 and 77, turned a contest into a rout. Ethan Strange's try in the 79th put the gloss on it at 38-16 before the final whistle locked in 40-16.

The stat sheet explains why the Eels couldn't hold on once Canberra found their groove. Raiders ran 56% of the possession and completed at 81% against the Eels' 59%, and when one side is that much cleaner with the ball, field position takes care of itself. Nine errors to sixteen is the kind of gap that decides which team spends the second half attacking and which spends it scrambling.

Line breaks tell the same story from the other direction: 12 to 4. Canberra's forward pack and halves were rated well above Parramatta's coming in, 1171 to 885 in the halves, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in 699 post-contact metres and 45 tackle breaks to 25. The Eels missed 45 tackles on the day, nearly double the Raiders' 25, and against a side generating that much go-forward, that gap was always going to cost points.

Discipline mattered too. Parramatta gave away five penalties to Canberra's one, and with the Raiders already dominant in possession, cheap field position was the last thing they needed to hand over.

Alphr's model had backed Raiders at 73% and picked them by 10.2 points on a projected total of 41. The winner was right, but the margin model undersold it badly, missing by 14 points as Canberra ran out 24-point winners in a 56-point shootout that beat the total by 15. Six from sixteen on this one, and a reminder that picking the right side is only half the job when a game flips as hard as this after half-time.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 28 | 40 |
| Eels | 16 | 0 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 59% |
| **1,985** | Run metres | 1,517 |
| **699** | Post-contact metres | 471 |
| **12** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **19** | Offloads | 10 |
| **87.8%** | Effective tackle % | 84.5% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| **9** | Errors | 16 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 509 | Kick metres | **554** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 56 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 41. Raiders trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–16. The model went 6/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 11.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 6' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 13' Try — Charlie Guymer (Eels) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 28' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 52' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 26-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 77' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 32-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 38-16 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.32 (edge -12.1%) — model probability 73.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 73% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 304 ELO points clear, 1655 to 1351. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 41. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 1st against Eels 15th.

Raiders come in fresher, 13 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Eels 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 15-12 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 1st · Eels 15th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Eels 0% |
| Rest gap | Raiders 13d · Eels 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 25W–29L | 46% |
| Eels | 29W–30L | 49% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Raiders 25W–29L (46%) and Eels 29W–30L (49%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Eels's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1805.8m | Run Metres | 1605.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 353.6 | Tackles | 371.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 13.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 25.6 |
| Eels | 1W–4L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Eels | 15 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R6 | Eels | 12 – 50 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R5 | Raiders | 41 – 8 | Eels |
| 2023 | R11 | Raiders | 26 – 18 | Eels |
| 2022 | R27 | Eels | 40 – 4 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.65 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.69 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.65/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.69/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.94/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.12/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.76/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 6 | 9 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 170m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 38 | 29 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 696m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.7/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 12 | 8 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 600m/g | 471m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.68) +38% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.68) +34% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.27) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 7 in 17g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/4g | 9/19g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 52' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 16/45g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 19/47g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 16/27g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 4/17g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/33g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/21g | 30/127g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/52g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 10/89g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (2·2·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 23/56g | 44% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/11g | 22% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/40g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | 🏉 73' 77' |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 1/13g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 3 | Bailey Simonsson | CE | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 7/21g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/17g | 1/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1655 · Eels 1351 · ELO difference: 304 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1149 (best 1295) | 1101 (best 1232) | Raiders +48 |
| Backs | 1024 (best 1179) | 1106 (best 1164) | Eels +82 |
| Halves | 1171 (best 1171) | 885 (best 885) | Raiders +286 |
| Hooker | 1049 | 1200 | Eels +151 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Raiders predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)