Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 10.5 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 40, within 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Panthers's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
75%
Rabbitohs
25%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 259-point ELO rating advantage (1585 vs 1326). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Panthers by 10.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.9%
Line / Spread
Panthers -12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.9%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W W W W | 20.8 |
Rabbitohs | L L L L L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
11.6
Panthers
33.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
9.2
Panthers
-14.2
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1755
Panthers
1469
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.8
Panthers
4.4
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Panthers 33W–29L (53%) and Rabbitohs 33W–24L (58%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Panthers's +0.1. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Panthers predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +10.5
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