# Panthers v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 30 – 10 Rabbitohs

_Panthers pounce on Rabbitohs._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 75% / Rabbitohs 25% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 18 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Paul Alamoti (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dylan Edwards (17'), Casey McLean (37'), Dylan Edwards (50'), Casey McLean (76') · Rabbitohs: Liam Le Blanc (44'), Alex Johnston (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 75% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 30–10 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 20 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors to four, a completion rate 18 points worse, and Panthers still walked out 30-10 winners at CommBank Stadium. That's the story of the night in one line: Souths played the tidier footy and lost by twenty.

The scoreboard was cooked early. Paul Alamoti opened it up in the 13th minute, Dylan Edwards added his first three minutes later, and by the 36th Casey McLean had crossed to make it 18-0. Panthers led by that scoreline at half-time. Liam Le Blanc finally got Souths on the board in the 43rd, but by then the margin was already a mountain.

Edwards went again in the 49th for his second, McLean doubled up in the 75th for his, and Alex Johnston's try in the 78th minute rounded it out. Panthers finished with five tries from three players, Edwards and McLean both scoring twice while Alamoti got the party started.

The stat sheet explains why the header number matters so much. Rabbitohs completed at 92% to the Panthers' 74%, coughed the ball up just four times to twelve, and out-muscled Penrith for post-contact metres, 568 to 512. By most old-school measures, that's the game of a side that should win. But Panthers broke the line six times to five, ran for more total metres (1,792 to 1,631) and made more tackle breaks too, 42 to 40. Whatever Souths did with the ball in hand, Penrith did more with the ball when it counted.

Possession was dead even, 50-50, and the effective tackle numbers were close too: 87.1% for Panthers, 85.8% for Rabbitohs. Missed tackles barely separated them either, 40 to 42. This wasn't a game where one side dominated the collisions. It was a game where one side turned its chances into points and the other didn't.

The positional ratings pre-match had Rabbitohs rated higher in the halves (1198 to 1138) and at hooker (884 to 812), which lines up with why Souths could move the ball around so cleanly. But Panthers' backline was rated miles ahead, 1081 to 925, and that's roughly where this game got decided: out wide, in the tries column, not in the ruck.

Form coming in told a similar story before a ball was kicked. Panthers arrived on a 5-0 run conceding just 11.6 points a game on average, while Rabbitohs were winless in their last five and leaking 33 a game. Souths' 10 points conceded here was actually well under their recent average, so this wasn't their worst defensive night by their own recent standard. It just wasn't good enough against a Panthers side clicking in the areas that matter.

Alphr's model had Panthers favourites at 75%, tipping a 10.5-point win and a combined total near 46. The lean was right, the margin wasn't: the actual result doubled the predicted gap to 20 points, with Panthers covering the 12.5-point line, and the total landed at 40, six points under the forecast. Four correct picks from sixteen markets on this one, a reminder that even a right call on the winner doesn't mean the numbers land where you expect.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 74% | Completion rate | **92%** |
| **1,792** | Run metres | 1,631 |
| 512 | Post-contact metres | **568** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **42** | Tackle breaks | 40 |
| **15** | Offloads | 14 |
| **87.1%** | Effective tackle % | 85.8% |
| **40** | Missed tackles | 42 |
| 12 | Errors | **4** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 771 | Kick metres | **818** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 10.5 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 40, within 6 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 12.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Panthers's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 36' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 43' Try — Liam Le Blanc (Rabbitohs) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 49' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 30-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.22 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 74.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 11 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 75% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 259 ELO points clear, 1585 to 1326. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 10.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 36-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 6th against Rabbitohs 16th.

Rabbitohs come in fresher, 12 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Rabbitohs 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 36-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 6th · Rabbitohs 16th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |
| Rest gap | Panthers 5d · Rabbitohs 12d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 36W–25L | 59% |
| Rabbitohs | 34W–23L | 60% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Panthers 36W–25L (59%) and Rabbitohs 34W–23L (60%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Panthers's +0.1. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 33.0pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Margin | -14.2pts |
| 1755.0m | Run Metres | 1469.4m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 385.8 | Tackles | 378.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 20.8 |
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Panthers | 36 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R26 | Panthers | 34 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 42 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R8 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 18 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.35 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 12th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 0.47/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.06/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.35/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 12th) | 1.71/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 6 | 5 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 207m/g | 151m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 85.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 34 | 36 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 759m/g | 638m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 11.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 13 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 489m/g | 492m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.45) -4% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.43) -7% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 4/13g | 30% | — | 🏉 17' 50' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·3·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/8g | 33% | — | 🏉 37' 76' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 5/12g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 6/17g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.25 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 6/22g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Isaiah Papali'i | LK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 5/28g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/22g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alex Johnston | FB | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·3·1·1·4·0·0) | 13/19g | 8/13g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Wighton | 5/8 | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/21g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Host | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Lewis Dodd | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1585 · Rabbitohs 1326 · ELO difference: 259 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1014 (best 1283) | 1000 (best 1262) | Panthers +14 |
| Backs | 1081 (best 1204) | 925 (best 1127) | Panthers +155 |
| Halves | 1138 (best 1138) | 1198 (best 1198) | Rabbitohs +60 |
| Hooker | 812 | 884 | Rabbitohs +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Panthers predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)