AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 8 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend — Knights historically win 48% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Warriors by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Warriors trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 15–20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
40%
Warriors
60%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Warriors carry a 154-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1389). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.7 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Line / Spread
Warriors +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 18.4 |
Warriors | WWWLL | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Knights
21.6
Warriors
Avg Margin
-3.2
Knights
6.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1822
Knights
1606
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
5.4
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Knights hold a 10‑point edge: 15W–16L (48%) vs Warriors's 11W–18L (38%) across all games Grant Atkins has refereed for each side. His games average 43.0 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.0 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.7
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