# Knights v Warriors — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 15 – 20 Warriors

_Warriors roar back to go to war with Knights._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 40% / Warriors 60% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 20 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Hunt (22' Tipped ⚡), Dane Gagai (26'), Greg Marzhew (30') · Warriors: Adam Pompey (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Demitric Vaimauga (49'), Leka Halasima (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 60% | Won |
| Knights | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 15–20 Warriors in NRL Round 20 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty four. That's the post-contact metres gap between the two packs, 565 to 511, and it's the number that explains how Warriors turned a 12-6 half-time deficit into a 20-15 win at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Knights led at the break and led it well. Adam Pompey opened the scoring for Warriors in the 7th minute, but Newcastle answered with three tries in nine minutes, Fletcher Hunt in the 21st, Dane Gagai four minutes later, then Greg Marzhew in the 30th to make it 12-6. For a side averaging 18.4 points across their last five games, that was about as good a first half as they could have asked for.

It didn't hold. Warriors clawed one back through Demitric Vaimauga in the 49th minute, and from there it turned into the arm-wrestle the ledger always suggested it would be. Jack Cogger's field goal in the 74th nudged Newcastle back in front, 15-14, but Leka Halasima scored right at the death, 80 minutes on the clock, to steal it 20-15.

The scoreboard tells you Knights were the sharper side with the ball. Six line breaks to three, 30 tackle breaks to 24, both numbers stacking up in Newcastle's favour. But footy isn't just about who cuts the line, it's about who's still standing after the collision, and that's where Warriors made their money. Winning the run-metre count 1,614 to 1,512 and the post-contact battle 565 to 511 meant they kept dragging Newcastle backwards in defence, over and over, until something gave.

It showed in the tackle count too. Warriors missed 30 tackles to the Knights' 24, which on paper looks like a defensive problem, but they had the ball enough and the go-forward enough to make it not matter. Effective tackle percentage was close, 88.1 to 89.1, so this wasn't a case of one side falling apart under pressure. It was a case of Warriors's forward pack, rated 1109 against Newcastle's 1043 coming in, doing exactly what a stronger pack is supposed to do over 80 minutes.

Newcastle's halves and hooker were rated well above their opposite numbers, 1231 and 1149 against 1202 and 999, and for a half you could see it working. But recent form had Warriors averaging 28 points a game to Newcastle's 18.4, with a positive average margin of 6.4 against Newcastle's minus 3.2, and eventually that gap in class told.

Alphr's model had Warriors favourites at 60% and picked the margin at 2.7 points, with Warriors covering the 6.5-line regardless. The actual margin came in at 5, closer than tipped but the right side of the ledger. Warriors trailing 12-6 at the break before grinding out the win is exactly the kind of finish the model's rating gap, 1543 to 1389, was pointing towards. It just took until the 80th minute to prove it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| Warriors | 6 | 14 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,512 | Run metres | **1,614** |
| 511 | Post-contact metres | **565** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **30** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| 9 | Offloads | **11** |
| **89.1%** | Effective tackle % | 88.1% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 30 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| **595** | Kick metres | 593 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Warriors trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 15–20. The model went 5/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 6.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 8 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 21' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 49' Try — Demitric Vaimauga (Warriors) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 74' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jack Cogger (Knights) — 15-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 80' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 15-20 · win-prob swing -30 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.48 (edge -9.7%) — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 60%, but Knights stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 154 ELO points clear, 1543 to 1389. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warriors by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 13th against Warriors 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 3 · Warriors 7 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-10 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 13th · Warriors 4th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16W–18L | 47% |
| Warriors | 14W–18L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Knights 16W–18L (47%) and Warriors 14W–18L (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 1822.4m | Run Metres | 1606.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 396.8 | Tackles | 368.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 18.4 |
| Warriors | 3W–2L | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Warriors | 10 – 12 | Knights |
| 2026 | R26 | Warriors | 46 – 32 | Knights |
| 2026 | R3 | Knights | 12 – 38 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R8 | Warriors | 26 – 12 | Knights |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 13th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.76 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.31/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 12th) | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.65/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 17 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 197m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 26 | 28 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 813m/g | 644m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.8/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.7% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 534m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.43) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dane Gagai | FB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 25/105g | 14% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 3/7g | 26/27g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/7g | 19/42g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 20/29g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/27g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 4/75g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/39g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/38g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Phoenix Crossland | LK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/51g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Gamble | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/40g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 10/51g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 9/14g | 6/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 2/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 7/17g | 3/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1389 · Warriors 1543 · ELO difference: 154 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1043 (best 1225) | 1109 (best 1292) | Warriors +65 |
| Backs | 1023 (best 1230) | 1003 (best 1220) | Knights +20 |
| Halves | 1231 (best 1231) | 1202 (best 1202) | Knights +30 |
| Hooker | 1149 | 999 | Knights +150 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warriors predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)