Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Warriors trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 15–20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 8 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
40%
Warriors
60%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Warriors carry a 154-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1389). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.7 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Line / Spread
Warriors +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 18.4 |
Warriors | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Knights
21.6
Warriors
Avg Margin
-3.2
Knights
6.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1822
Knights
1606
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
5.4
Warriors
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Knights 15W–17L (47%) and Warriors 13W–18L (42%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Warriors get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Knights's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.7
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