# Dolphins v Cowboys — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 43 – 24 Cowboys

_Dolphins ride the wave past Cowboys._

Half time: 24 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 63% / Cowboys 37% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 17 July, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Oryn Keeley (3' 1st), Jake Averillo (20' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (24' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (37' Tipped ⚡), Harrison Graham (44'), Jamayne Isaako (47' Tipped ⚡), Jake Averillo (76' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Murray Taulagi (8' Tipped ⚡), Murray Taulagi (56' Tipped ⚡), Scott Drinkwater (62' Tipped ⚡), Tom Dearden (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 63% | Won |
| Cowboys | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 43–24 Cowboys in NRL Round 20 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven tries in 26 minutes will do that to a scoreline. From the moment Jake Averillo crossed in the 20th to Jamayne Isaako's try in the 46th, the Dolphins put on five tries and turned a tight 6-6 arm wrestle into a 34-6 procession. That stretch is the whole game.

Final score: Dolphins 43, Cowboys 24, at Suncorp Stadium. Oryn Keeley got things moving inside two minutes, Murray Taulagi hit back for the Cowboys soon after, and at 6-4 this looked like it might be a contest. Then Averillo, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow twice, Harrison Graham and Isaako all crossed before the hour mark and the Cowboys were chasing a scoreboard they had no way of catching. Dolphins led 24-6 at half-time and never looked like giving that up.

To be fair to the Cowboys, they didn't fold. Taulagi grabbed his second, Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden crossed either side of the hour, and for a passage there the margin came back to single figures worth of tries, 34-22 after Dearden's effort in the 63rd. But Averillo's second in the 75th and an Isaiya Katoa field goal in the 78th put the gloss back on it, 43-24 the final tally.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Dolphins broke the line 10 times to the Cowboys' 4, and it was that line-break count, not any dominance in the collision, that decided this. The Cowboys actually won post-contact metres 541 to 535 and beat the Dolphins on tackle breaks, 30 to 25, with 13 offloads to 7. They were the physically busier side in a lot of ways. They just couldn't finish, and their line speed let Dolphins in too often.

Completion rate tells the rest of the story. Dolphins finished at 84% to the Cowboys' 77%, coughed the ball up only 10 times to 13, and ran for 1,927 metres to 1,705. Add in a healthy 564 metres off the boot to the Cowboys' 419 and three penalties conceded against six, and you've got a side that controlled field position and looked after the footy while the opposition made mistakes at the wrong end.

Individually, Averillo and Tabuai-Fidow with two tries apiece did the damage, with Keeley, Graham and Isaako all chiming in. Taulagi's brace for the Cowboys was about the only consistent thread in their attack, Drinkwater and Dearden adding one each in that brief second-half rally that never got them closer than 12.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the numbers going in. The Dolphins arrived with the halves edge, 1283 to 1185, and a hooker rating that wasn't close, 1200 to 964, and their recent form line, three wins from five with an average margin of plus 21.6, said this was their kind of game. The Cowboys had been leaking an average of 32.4 points a game across their last five, and that trend held up.

Alphr's model backed the Dolphins at 63% and got the winner right, but the margin was another story. It had this at 5.5 points, with a combined total of 43. The actual margin was 19, the total finished at 67, and the model went 7 from 16 on the match markets. Called the right team. Missed the size of the beating by a long way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| Cowboys | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,927** | Run metres | 1,705 |
| 535 | Post-contact metres | **541** |
| **10** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **30** |
| 7 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.6% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| 30 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **564** | Kick metres | 419 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 67 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 7/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 67 points was 23 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dolphins bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 67% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Oryn Keeley (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 7' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 20' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 23' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 36' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 44' Try — Harrison Graham (Dolphins) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 46' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 34-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 61' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 34-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 63' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 34-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 40-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — 43-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.53 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 63%, but Cowboys stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 162 ELO points clear, 1551 to 1389. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cowboys.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Dolphins by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-16 in 2026 Round 20.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 10th against Cowboys 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 6 · Cowboys 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-16 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 10th · Cowboys 12th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Cowboys | 18W–9L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 18 of 27 games (67%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Cowboys's -0.9.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 39.2pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 32.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 2011.8m | Run Metres | 1598.0m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 326.2 | Tackles | 364.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 14.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 39.2 |
| Cowboys | 1W–4L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Dolphins | 36 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R14 | Cowboys | 14 – 40 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R15 | Cowboys | 4 – 58 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R9 | Cowboys | 26 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R1 | Dolphins | 18 – 43 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.59 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 11th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.41 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.12/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.12/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.06/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 9th) | 1.41/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 216m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 36 | 42 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 778m/g | 757m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.2/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 75.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 8 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 441m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 88.5% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.68) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 15 in 14g | 15/10g (1·3·0·1·2·0·1·2·1·4) | 2/3g | 21/25g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 37' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 11/14g | 30/70g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 11 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 24/60g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jake Averillo | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 9/21g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 76' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 2/26g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Aublix Tawha | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/23g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/14g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.80 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 9% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/23g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Peter Hola | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/12g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 2 | Jaxson Paulo | WG | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Braidon Burns | CE | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 4/4g | 27% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 6/13g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 56' |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 9 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/22g | 30% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Griffin Neame | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Reuben Cotter | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 8/8g | 42% | — | — |
| 13 | Harrison Edwards | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kaiden Lahrs | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1551 · Cowboys 1389 · ELO difference: 162 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1001 (best 1200) | 986 (best 1253) | Dolphins +15 |
| Backs | 1093 (best 1221) | 1113 (best 1160) | Cowboys +20 |
| Halves | 1283 (best 1283) | 1185 (best 1185) | Dolphins +98 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 964 | Dolphins +236 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)