Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 67 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 67 points was 23 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dolphins bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 65% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
63%
Cowboys
37%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Dolphins carry a 162-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1389). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 5.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.53
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W W L L | 39.2 |
Cowboys | W L L L L | 14.0 |
Avg Conceded
17.6
Dolphins
32.4
Cowboys
Avg Margin
21.6
Dolphins
-18.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
2012
Dolphins
1598
Cowboys
Line Breaks
7.0
Dolphins
4.2
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 17 of 26 games (65%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Dolphins get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Cowboys's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +5.5
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