Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 10.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 50% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
76%
Dragons
24%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 177-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1378). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 10.0 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.32
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W L L | 18.0 |
Dragons | W L L L L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
13.6
Bulldogs
33.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
4.4
Bulldogs
-11.8
Dragons
Run Metres
1911
Bulldogs
1561
Dragons
Line Breaks
3.8
Bulldogs
3.8
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Bulldogs have won 14 of 28 games (50%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 34 (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Bulldogs get a +1.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dragons's +1.0. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +10.0
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