# Bulldogs v Dragons — NRL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 20 – 18 Dragons

_Bulldogs muzzle a gallant Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 76% / Dragons 24% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 19 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Jacob Kiraz (7' 1st), Lachlan Galvin (22'), Reed Mahoney (32'), Jethro Rinakama (78' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (16' Tipped ⚡), Moses Suli (51'), Sione Finau (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 76% | Won |
| Dragons | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 20–18 Dragons in NRL Round 20 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen to eight at the break, and by full time Bulldogs had somehow made that lead look both bulletproof and paper-thin at the same time. Final score: Bulldogs 20, Dragons 18. Two points in it, and the second half did its best to blow the whole thing up.

The half-time margin flattered Bulldogs a bit. They'd scored through Jacob Kiraz in the sixth minute, then Lachlan Galvin and Reed Mahoney either side of the 30, and looked like they were building something comfortable. Dragons had an answer in there too, Tyrell Sloan crossing at the 16 minute mark, but at the break it was 16-8 and Bulldogs were cruising.

Then the Dragons decided to turn up. Moses Suli scored in the 50th minute, Sione Finau levelled it at 16-16 four minutes later, and suddenly a game that looked done was very much alive. It took until the 77th minute for Jethro Rinakama to get over and settle it 20-18. That's not a side hanging on. That's a side that nearly blew a two-score lead and had to find one more try to survive it.

The stat sheet tells you why it was that close. Dragons were the better side with the ball in hand, completing at 89% against 81%, and coughing it up only 7 times to Bulldogs' 10. They also won the collision battle, busting 34 tackles to 25 and offloading 16 times to Bulldogs' 9, numbers that explain how they kept finding gaps in a defence that missed 34 tackles compared to their own 25. Add in 742 kick metres to Bulldogs' 550, and Dragons controlled a fair chunk of the territory battle too.

What Bulldogs had was go-forward. 1,885 run metres to 1,668, and 624 post-contact metres, enough to keep dragging themselves up the field even when the completion rate said they shouldn't have had the ball as often as they did. Line breaks were shared evenly at six apiece, which about sums up how tight this one really was underneath the scoreboard.

Form-wise this lines up with what both sides brought in. Bulldogs' halves and backline ratings, 1211 and 1045 against 928 and 924, were the widest gaps on the sheet, and it showed in the first half when their attack found its rhythm through Galvin and Mahoney.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16 | 4 | 20 |
| Dragons | 8 | 10 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| **1,885** | Run metres | 1,668 |
| **624** | Post-contact metres | 604 |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 9 | Offloads | **16** |
| 85.7% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 550 | Kick metres | **742** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 10.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 53% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 16' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 22' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 50' Try — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 16-12 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 54' Try — Sione Finau (Dragons) — 16-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 77' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 20-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.32 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 10 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 76% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 177 ELO points clear, 1555 to 1378. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 10.0, with the two sides combining for about 40. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 44-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 3rd against Dragons 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 8 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 44-14 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 3rd · Dragons 11th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |
| Dragons | 10W–25L | 29% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Bulldogs have won 16 of 30 games (53%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 35 (29%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Bulldogs's +0.6. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 33.0pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 1911.0m | Run Metres | 1560.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 357.4 | Tackles | 362.2 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 3W–2L | 18.0 |
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Dragons | 14 – 44 | Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R1 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R1 | Dragons | 20 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R23 | Dragons | 10 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R12 | Bulldogs | 44 – 12 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Finau, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) | 1.31/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.94/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 8 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 29 | 38 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 797m/g | 747m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 14.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 80.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 9 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 455m/g | 484m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.45) +40% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.43) +37%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.45) +16% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.68) +13% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/18g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/26g | 30% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 3 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/6g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 12/22g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 13/31g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 13% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/43g | 12% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 7/26g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/19g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 2/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/25g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | PR | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/19g | 26/38g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (2·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/11g | 6% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Sione Finau | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 2/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 15/87g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/50g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/10g | 2/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.10 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/12g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Michael Molo | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1555 · Dragons 1378 · ELO difference: 177 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1064 (best 1265) | 1057 (best 1299) | Bulldogs +8 |
| Backs | 1045 (best 1085) | 924 (best 999) | Bulldogs +121 |
| Halves | 1211 (best 1211) | 928 (best 928) | Bulldogs +283 |
| Hooker | 1097 | 1024 | Bulldogs +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)