AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Bulldogs have a 48% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 10.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
76%
Dragons
24%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 177-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1378). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 10.0 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.32
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.8%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 18.0 |
Dragons | WLLLL | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
13.6
Bulldogs
33.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
4.4
Bulldogs
-11.8
Dragons
Run Metres
1911
Bulldogs
1561
Dragons
Line Breaks
3.8
Bulldogs
3.8
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Bulldogs have won 13 of 27 games (48%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 32 (31%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +10.0
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