Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 70% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Warriors led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
30%
Sea Eagles
70%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 177-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1389). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 2.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W L L L L | 19.6 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
30.0
Warriors
27.2
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-10.4
Warriors
0.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1733
Warriors
1593
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
4.0
Warriors
5.0
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Warriors 15W–17L (47%) and Sea Eagles 16W–22L (42%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.0
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