# Warriors v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 36 – 16 Sea Eagles

_Warriors march past Sea Eagles._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 30% / Sea Eagles 70% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 14 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Chanel Harris-Tavita (19'), Taine Tuaupiki (26'), Ali Leiataua (30' Tipped ⚡), Wayde Egan (49'), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (70' Tipped ⚡), Luke Metcalf (79') · Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jason Saab (46' Tipped ⚡), Daly Cherry-Evans (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 70% | Lost |
| Warriors | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 36–16 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 2 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tom Trbojevic scored inside three minutes and for a moment the form line held up. Sea Eagles led 4-0, exactly the sort of start you'd expect from the side the model had favoured by 70 percent. Then the Warriors spent the rest of the half making that opening try look like an outlier.

Chanel Harris-Tavita crossed at 18 to level things up, and from there the home side didn't stop. Taine Tuaupiki went over seven minutes later, then Ali Leiataua touched down at 29 to push it to 16-6. By the break it was 18-6, and a game the model had pegged as a two-point affair for Sea Eagles was already sitting at a 12-point Warriors lead.

The Sea Eagles didn't fold. Jason Saab got them within eight early in the second half and Daly Cherry-Evans followed with a try of his own to make it 24-14, keeping the margin at a distance where one bad passage could have changed the mood entirely. But every time Manly found something, Wayde Egan or someone else in claret and blue answered inside a few minutes. Egan's try at 49 restored a 12-point buffer before Cherry-Evans had even had time to celebrate his own.

Jake Trbojevic's sin bin at 62 was the moment the game tipped from contest to formality. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck scored with the extra man on the field at 70, and Luke Metcalf put the finishing touch on it in the 79th. What had been a six-point half-time margin turned into a 20-point final gap, the exact opposite of what the ratings had suggested going in.

The stat sheet explains why the chase never quite closed. Warriors ran for 1,648 metres to 1,349, and made 531 of them after contact, evidence of a forward pack that kept finding the extra half-metre when it mattered. They broke 39 tackles to Manly's 16 and offloaded seven times to three, numbers that point to a side that was hard to plant on the ground all night. Completion rate told the same story from the other angle: 91 percent for the Warriors against 72 for the Sea Eagles, with just six errors to twelve.

None of that lines up with what either side brought into the match on paper. Sea Eagles rated higher everywhere that counted, forwards, backs, halves, even by a wide margin in the halves at 1336 to 1049. The one spot the Warriors held an edge was hooker, 1098 to 794, and it showed up in exactly the kind of quick, high-completion footy that let their outside men keep finding space. Recent form had the Warriors as one from five and shipping 30 points a game. This one bore no resemblance to that run.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles winning by two off ratings of 1566 to 1389. The Warriors won by 20. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was very much a miss.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 10 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **91%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,648** | Run metres | 1,349 |
| **531** | Post-contact metres | 421 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 16 |
| **7** | Offloads | 3 |
| **93.4%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| **16** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **614** | Kick metres | 592 |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 70% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Warriors led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 25' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 29' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 49' Try — Wayde Egan (Warriors) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 62' Sin Bin — Jake Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 24-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 70' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 79' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 34-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.45 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 69.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 70% to see off Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 177 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1389. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warriors.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sea Eagles to win, not to win big.

Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 31-30 in 2026 Round 27.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 14th against Sea Eagles 3rd.

Warriors come in fresher, 12 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 4 · Sea Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 31-30 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 14th · Sea Eagles 3rd |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Rest gap | Warriors 12d · Sea Eagles 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 17W–20L | 46% |
| Sea Eagles | 17W–24L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Warriors 17W–20L (46%) and Sea Eagles 17W–24L (41%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1733.0m | Run Metres | 1592.8m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 335.0 | Tackles | 303.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 1W–4L | 19.6 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Warriors | 31 – 30 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 27 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R24 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 10 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R6 | Warriors | 22 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R25 | Warriors | 29 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 8th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Capewell, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.54/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.85/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 1.31/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 16 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 68 | 78 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 706m/g | 711m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 74.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 13 | 16 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 634m/g | 512m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.4) +7% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.4) +10% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 1.26) -1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 6/19g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 5% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/9g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/17g | 10/46g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 7/17g | 10% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/23g | 10% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/9g | 3/10g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (1·2·0·2·1·3·1·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 9/5g | 3/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.45 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/9g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 9/21g | 2/5g | 30% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Aloiai | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 2/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1389 · Sea Eagles 1566 · ELO difference: 177 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1035 (best 1241) | 1063 (best 1296) | Sea Eagles +28 |
| Backs | 876 (best 907) | 1113 (best 1200) | Sea Eagles +237 |
| Halves | 1049 (best 1049) | 1336 (best 1336) | Sea Eagles +286 |
| Hooker | 1098 | 794 | Warriors +304 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)