Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 66% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 4 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
34%
Broncos
66%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Raiders. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 5.6 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.6%
Line / Spread
Broncos +11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.6%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W W L | 19.2 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
20.8
Raiders
29.2
Broncos
Avg Margin
-1.6
Raiders
-1.2
Broncos
Run Metres
1611
Raiders
1594
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.0
Raiders
5.6
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 5 of 5 games (100%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 5 (60%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Raiders).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Broncos predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -5.6
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