# Raiders v Broncos — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 32 – 22 Broncos

_Raiders raid Broncos._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 34% / Broncos 66% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 15 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Matty Nicholson (8' 1st), Josh Papalii (17'), Matty Nicholson (38' 1st), Tom Starling (47'), Matthew Timoko (51'), Savelio Tamale (58' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Jesse Arthars (25'), Jesse Arthars (34'), Selwyn Cobbo (64' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Arthars (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 66% | Lost |
| Raiders | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 32–22 Broncos in NRL Round 2 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders led 16-10 at the break and never let the Broncos back level, though Brisbane made them sweat for it before the final siren. Nicholson's double either side of Papalii's try inside the first 16 minutes had Canberra out to 10-0, and even when Arthars scored twice in an eight-minute stretch to drag the Broncos within two, Nicholson's second try just before the break restored the six-point cushion at 16-10.

The second half was where Canberra turned a handy lead into a rout. Starling, Timoko and Tamale all crossed inside a 12-minute burst to push it to 30-10, and by that point the Broncos were chasing a scoreline that had gotten away from them. Cobbo's try at 64 and Arthars completing his hat-trick at 77 made the final margin look closer than the game actually was, with Canberra winning 32-22.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. Raiders held 52% of the ball and completed at 79% against the Broncos' 64%, the kind of gap in discipline with the football that tends to show up on the ladder over a season, let alone in one game. Ten errors to 14 isn't a canyon, but paired with that completion rate it meant Canberra simply had more chances to play with.

Where it really told was through the middle. Raiders ran for 1,609 metres to 1,573, nothing in it there, but the post-contact numbers separate the two sides properly: 647 to 565. Add 44 tackle breaks to Brisbane's 35 and seven line breaks to four, and you've got a Canberra side that kept finding grass after first contact while the Broncos kept getting stood up short. Defensively the ledger flipped the other way, with the Broncos missing 44 tackles to Canberra's 35, even though both sides finished within a couple of tenths of each other on effective tackle percentage.

The positional numbers going in suggested this should have gone the other way. Brisbane rated stronger in the forwards (1,119 to 1,035), the backs (1,135 to 1,108) and comfortably so in the halves (1,344 to 1,181). The one spot Canberra held an edge was hooker, 1,151 to 966, and Starling repaid that with a try of his own. Brisbane also arrived with the better recent scoring form, averaging 28 points a game to Canberra's 19.2, but scoring form doesn't count for much when your own line keeps getting cracked.

Alphr's model had Brisbane winning this one, giving them a 66% chance and tipping a 5.6-point margin their way off level ELO ratings of 1,499 apiece. Instead Canberra won by 10, a 15-point swing on the predicted margin and about as clean an upset as the model will cop this season. It finished 2 from 16 on markets tied to this match. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one's filed firmly under miss.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Broncos | 10 | 12 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 64% |
| **1,609** | Run metres | 1,573 |
| **647** | Post-contact metres | 565 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| 7 | Offloads | **13** |
| 84.9% | Effective tackle % | **85.1%** |
| **35** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 380 | Kick metres | **390** |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 66% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 4 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Josh Papalii (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 25' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -11 pts
- 33' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 46' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 50' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 24-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 58' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 30-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 32-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 32-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.27 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 66.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 66% to see off Raiders. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Broncos.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Broncos by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Broncos to win, not to win big.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 6, Broncos 5.

On the ladder it's Raiders 4th against Broncos 2nd.

Raiders come in fresher, 13 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 34-30 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 4th · Broncos 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Raiders 13d · Broncos 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6W–0L | 100% |
| Broncos | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 6 games (100%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 3 from 8 (38%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 1610.8m | Run Metres | 1594.2m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 388.2 | Tackles | 327.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 19.2 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Raiders | 30 – 34 | Broncos |
| 2025 | FW1 | Raiders | 28 – 29 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R7 | Broncos | 34 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R26 | Raiders | 18 – 29 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R6 | Broncos | 14 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 13th-ranked right edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Timoko, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 8th) | 1.08/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 24 | 18 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 183m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 82.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 57 | 53 · 64 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 698m/g | 639m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.5/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 22 | 13 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 555m/g | 549m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.7) +13% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.4) +5%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30% · Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.7) +17% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.46) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 13/38g | 22% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 17/40g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Albert Hopoate | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 7/21g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/26g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 27/121g | 12% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/45g | 4% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 10 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 19/50g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Nicholson | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 8' 38' |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/20g | 8% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 3 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 6/4g | 4/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.38 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Deine Mariner | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 25' 34' 78' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/19g | 0/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 17 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1499 · Broncos 1499 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1035 (best 1300) | 1119 (best 1350) | Broncos +84 |
| Backs | 1108 (best 1207) | 1135 (best 1186) | Broncos +27 |
| Halves | 1181 (best 1181) | 1344 (best 1344) | Broncos +164 |
| Hooker | 1151 | 966 | Raiders +185 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Broncos predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)