# Panthers v Roosters — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 32 – 38 Roosters

_Roosters rule the roost over a gallant Panthers._

Half time: 18 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 76% / Roosters 24% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 14 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Paul Alamoti (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (29' Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (39'), Dylan Edwards (47'), Casey McLean (75') · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (6'), Connor Watson (9'), Daniel Tupou (35' Tipped ⚡), Connor Watson (42'), Daniel Tupou (54' Tipped ⚡), Sandon Smith (56'), Dominic Young (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 76% | Lost |
| Roosters | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 14.6 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 32–38 Roosters in NRL Round 2 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points separated these two at full time, but it was the seven minutes either side of half-time that decided it. Panthers led 18-16 in spirit if not on the board, before Connor Watson's second try landed right on the stroke of the break, then again in the 41st minute to push Roosters in front at 22-18. Panthers never got their noses back in front after that.

Roosters won 38-32 at CommBank Stadium, and the scoreboard was locked at 18-18 at the break, which tells you how even this was for 40 minutes. Paul Alamoti opened the account inside two minutes, and Panthers had four more tries in them through Brian To'o, Liam Henry, Dylan Edwards and Casey McLean. But Roosters kept answering, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Watson twice, Daniel Tupou twice, Sandon Smith and Dominic Young all crossing, and it was that response after half-time, three tries in the space of 15 minutes from Tupou, Smith and Young, that put real distance between the sides at 24-32 and then 24-38.

The stat sheet explains why Roosters could keep absorbing pressure and still come out on top. Panthers had 52% of the ball and still lost the collision battle everywhere it mattered. Roosters busted 46 tackles to 29, offloaded 11 times to 6, and turned that go-forward into 8 line breaks against Panthers's 6. When you're getting dominated at that rate in contact, extra possession doesn't count for much.

Discipline and completion were the other story. Roosters played at 77% completion and gave away just 3 penalties compared to Panthers's 8 conceded against them, sorry, the numbers run the other way: Panthers conceded only 3 penalties, Roosters gave away 8, yet it was Panthers whose defence cracked, missing 46 tackles against Roosters's 29. An effective tackle rate of 89.3% for Roosters against 81.2% for Panthers is the gap that let those Roosters strike plays through in the back half of the game.

Pre-match, the ratings had this as a home banker. Panthers came in on a 5-1 form differential in wins and an average margin of plus-14.8 across their last five, against a Roosters side sitting on minus-10.8 and just 2 wins from their last 5. The halves and forwards ratings backed that up, Panthers rating higher everywhere except hooker, where Roosters held a healthy edge, 1180 to 949. That hooker advantage looks like it mattered plenty once the ruck speed and strike plays started flowing Roosters's way after the break.

Alphr's model had Panthers winning three times out of four, favoured by 14.6 points in a game it pegged for 45 total points. Reality delivered a 70-point shootout and a 6-point away win, the sort of result that makes a model look silly and a form guide look wiser. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one belongs firmly in the misses column.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| Roosters | 18 | 20 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 71% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| **1,501** | Run metres | 1,470 |
| 436 | Post-contact metres | **446** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| 6 | Offloads | **11** |
| 81.2% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **398** | Kick metres | 391 |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 76% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.6 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 70 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 4/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 23 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 6' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 9' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 28' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 41' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 22-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 53' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 24-28 · win-prob swing -21 pts
- 56' Try — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 24-32 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 70' Try — Dominic Young (Roosters) — 24-38 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — Salesi Foketi (Roosters) — 24-38 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 30-38 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.12 (edge -18.5%) — model probability 75.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 15 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 76% to see off Roosters. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 148 ELO points clear, 1650 to 1502. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Panthers by 14.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 19-12 in 2026 Round 28.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Panthers 6th against Roosters 16th.

Panthers come in fresher, 12 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Roosters 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 19-12 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 6th · Roosters 16th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Panthers 12d · Roosters 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 7W–7L | 50% |
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Panthers 7W–7L (50%) and Roosters 8W–8L (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Roosters get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Panthers's -1.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Conceded | 34.4pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.8pts |
| 1908.4m | Run Metres | 1486.6m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 350.8 | Tackles | 342.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 27.2 |
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Panthers | 19 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R24 | Panthers | 6 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R3 | Roosters | 4 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R7 | Roosters | 12 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 11th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Edwards, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 3rd there (0.89 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.19/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.93/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.96/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 8 | 14 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 84.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 50 | 85 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 832m/g | 721m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.6/g | 21.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.9% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 12 | 30 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 492m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.27) +7% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.21) -5%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.4) -15% · 2nd Rows 0.38/g (lg 0.46) -17% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.15) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/8g | 36% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 2 | Casey McLean | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 3/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 6/11g | 3/8g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.26 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/12g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/17g | 0/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Daine Laurie | INT | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/17g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.30 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·1·2·0·0) | 5/17g | 6/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·2·2·0·1·1·0) | 7/20g | 5/11g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 54' |
| 3 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 2 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·0·3·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 9% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 7 | Chad Townsend | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 9' 42' |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Salesi Foketi | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Makahesi Makatoa | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Losalu | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1650 · Roosters 1502 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1131 (best 1287) | 1019 (best 1166) | Panthers +112 |
| Backs | 975 (best 1132) | 967 (best 1077) | Panthers +8 |
| Halves | 1144 (best 1144) | 1001 (best 1001) | Panthers +143 |
| Hooker | 949 | 1180 | Roosters +230 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Panthers predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)