# Knights v Dolphins — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 26 – 12 Dolphins

_Knights conquer Dolphins._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 61% / Dolphins 39% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Thu, 13 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Knights: James Schiller (10' 1st Tipped ⚡), James Schiller (14' 1st Tipped ⚡), Bradman Best (20' Tipped ⚡), Dane Gagai (28' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Lucas (44' Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Mark Nicholls (33'), Isaiya Katoa (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 61% | Won |
| Dolphins | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 26–12 Dolphins in NRL Round 2 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight line breaks to two. That's the number that beat the Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium, and it's why the Knights walked out 26-12 winners despite Newcastle having less of the ball all night.

The Dolphins had 52% possession and completed at 73%, tidier numbers than the Knights on paper. Didn't matter. Every time Newcastle found space they went through it, not around it, and the scoreboard by half-time already told the story: 20-6.

James Schiller set the tone early, scoring in the 9th minute and again in the 13th to have the Knights up 10-0 before the Dolphins had settled. Bradman Best followed in the 19th, Dane Gagai in the 27th, and suddenly it was 18-0 and the Dolphins were chasing a lead that had nothing to do with who held the ball longer. Mark Nicholls got one back for Brisbane in the 32nd, but Dylan Lucas restored the buffer in first-half stoppage time to make it 24-6 at the break. Isaiya Katoa's try in the 66th minute was the only scoring act of note in the second half before Kai Pearce-Paul's sin bin in the 68th, and by then the margin was academic.

The line break count wasn't a fluke, it was built on go-forward. Knights ran for 1,876 metres to the Dolphins' 1,752, and their post-contact number, 648 metres, shows they were finishing carries rather than just making them. Thirty-nine tackle breaks to 29 backs that up. The Dolphins' forward pack came into this rated slightly higher on paper, 1145 to 1127, but it was Newcastle's ball-runners doing the damage where it counted.

Defence was the other half of it. The Dolphins missed 39 tackles to the Knights' 29, and an effective tackle rate of 85.5% against 88.9% is the kind of gap that hands over four tries. Brisbane's hooker rating going in, 1118 to Newcastle's 1035, suggested an edge around the ruck that never really showed up on the sheet where it mattered most, which was stopping blokes running through it.

Newcastle's completion rate, 79% against 73%, is a quiet number but a telling one. Fewer sets butchered means more chances to use that line-break advantage, and the Knights made the most of the sets they had even with less of the ball overall. Errors were close, 11 to 10, so this wasn't really an execution story either way. It was a collision story, and the Knights won the collisions.

Form lines had this leaning Newcastle's way before kickoff, 4 wins from 5 against 1, and an average margin of plus-8 against minus-7.6 for the Dolphins. The Alphr model had the Knights at 61% to win with a margin of 2.7 points and a total near 40. The final gap was 14 points and the total landed at 38, so the pick was right and the shape of the game was close enough, even if the Knights made it look more comfortable than a three-point head start suggested.

Four tries to two from the Knights' bench of finishers, a middle that kept getting front-foot ball, and a Dolphins outfit that had the footy but nowhere to take it. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one belonged to Newcastle from the opening quarter onward.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 20 | 6 | 26 |
| Dolphins | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,876** | Run metres | 1,752 |
| **648** | Post-contact metres | 588 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| **88.9%** | Effective tackle % | 85.5% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **574** | Kick metres | 558 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Knights covered the 3.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Knights's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Knights have a 50% win rate under this referee. Knights's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 13' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 19' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 32' Try — Mark Nicholls (Dolphins) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 44' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 66' Try — Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Sin Bin — Kai Pearce-Paul (Knights) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.60 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 3 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Knights are the call at 61%, but Dolphins stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 60 ELO points clear, 1490 to 1430. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Dolphins.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Knights by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Knights, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 13-12 in 2026 Round 18.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Knights 8th against Dolphins 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Knights 6 · Dolphins 1 |
| Last meeting | Knights 13-12 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 8th · Dolphins 10th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 18W–18L | 50% |
| Dolphins | 6W–8L | 43% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Knights hold a 7-point edge: 18W–18L (50%) vs Dolphins's 6W–8L (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 1868.0m | Run Metres | 1625.4m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 369.0 | Tackles | 364.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 4W–1L | 22.4 |
| Dolphins | 1W–4L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Knights | 13 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R16 | Dolphins | 20 – 26 | Knights |
| 2024 | R27 | Knights | 14 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R8 | Dolphins | 14 – 18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R23 | Dolphins | 28 – 30 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Elliott, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Farnworth, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 7th) | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.96/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 18 | 10 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.5% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 52 | 66 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 775m/g | 738m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.5/g | 18.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.3% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 18 | 14 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 470m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.7) +24%
**Who scores on Knights** — Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.27) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 30/52g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·2·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 14' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 24/96g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 18/36g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 19/22g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·0·4·0·1·3·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/5g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/70g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/42g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/19g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 10/43g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Adam Elliott | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 3/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/31g | 10% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 6/9g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Junior Tupou | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/86g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Max Plath | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1490 · Dolphins 1430 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1127 (best 1274) | 1145 (best 1254) | Dolphins +18 |
| Backs | 1088 (best 1150) | 1073 (best 1214) | Knights +14 |
| Halves | 1128 (best 1128) | 1140 (best 1140) | Dolphins +11 |
| Hooker | 1035 | 1118 | Dolphins +83 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Knights predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)