AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Knights's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Knights have a 47% win rate under this referee. Knights's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
61%
Dolphins
39%
AI Match Overview
Knights hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Knights carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1490 vs 1430). Recent form favours Knights with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Knights by 2.7 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Knights -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWWWL | 22.4 |
Dolphins | WLLLL | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
14.4
Knights
22.8
Dolphins
Avg Margin
8.0
Knights
-7.6
Dolphins
Run Metres
1868
Knights
1625
Dolphins
Line Breaks
5.4
Knights
3.8
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Knights hold a 5‑point edge: 15W–17L (47%) vs Dolphins's 5W–7L (42%) across all games Gerard Sutton has refereed for each side. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Knights predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +2.7
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