Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 26 points. Wests Tigers led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
39%
Wests Tigers
61%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Eels carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1398 vs 1327). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 3.4 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 32.0 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Eels
29.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.0
Eels
-8.4
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1624
Eels
1633
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.8
Eels
3.6
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Eels 16W–26L (38%) and Wests Tigers 12W–17L (41%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Eels's -1.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Eels hold the ELO advantage (1398 vs 1327), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -3.4
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