# Eels v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 6 – 32 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers pounce on Eels._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 39% / Wests Tigers 61% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 16 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Sean Russell (79' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Sunia Turuva (27' 1st Tipped ⚡), Starford To'a (35'), Lachlan Galvin (39'), Jeral Skelton (43' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (67' 1st Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (73' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 61% | Won |
| Eels | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 6–32 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 2 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Wests Tigers by 3.4 points on a combined total of 46. What actually turned up was Wests Tigers by 26, and a scoreline nobody at CommBank Stadium would have predicted 0 for the Eels at the break. The 61% win probability on Wests Tigers was a fair read. The margin model wasn't even in the same suburb.

The gap between forecast and reality was obvious well before full time. Sunia Turuva got Wests Tigers going in the 26th minute, and by halftime it was 0-16 after tries to Starford To'a and Lachlan Galvin either side of the 40. Jeral Skelton added a fourth two minutes into the second half to make it 0-20, and from there the Eels were playing for pride more than the scoreboard. Turuva completed his hat-trick with tries in the 67th and 72nd minutes before Sean Russell got the Eels off the mark in the 79th. One try in eighty minutes tells its own story.

The pre-match numbers actually flagged this coming. Wests Tigers held a big edge in the halves (1221 to 1038) and an enormous one at hooker (1023 to 600), and that's exactly where a match like this gets decided, in the areas that don't always show up cleanly on a stat sheet until someone's crossed four times in the opening forty. The forward pack rating (1012 to 892) matched up too, and Wests Tigers backed it up with 1,707 run metres to 1,567.

Where it gets interesting is the completion numbers. The Eels were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 73% against Wests Tigers's 82%, and conceding fewer errors, 13 to 14. Normally that's the kind of split that keeps a team in a contest. It didn't matter here, because Wests Tigers were doing the damage that counts: 8 line breaks to 4, 41 tackle breaks to 33, and 643 kick metres to 387. That's a side dictating field position and cutting the line open whenever it wanted, discipline in possession or not.

Defensively the Eels leaked badly, missing 41 tackles to Wests Tigers's 33, and an effective tackle rate of 85.8% against 86.7% doesn't sound like a chasm until you remember six tries went past it. Wests Tigers were harder to put down too, with 41 tackle breaks to the Eels's 33, even though the Eels actually shaded post-contact metres, 541 to 513. Little pockets of resistance, no real dent in the outcome.

Form lines coming in had Wests Tigers as the more defensively sound outfit, conceding 29.2 points a game on average to the Eels's 38, and that gap showed up in the only column that mattered on the day. The Eels arrived averaging 32 points scored across their last five; they managed 6.

Alphr's model finished 6 from 16 on this one. It called the winner, it called the under on the 51.5 total, and Wests Tigers comfortably covered the 3.5-point line. The margin projection was the one clanger, out by more than 22 points on a night when the halves and hooker numbers were trying to tell everyone exactly how lopsided this would get.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Wests Tigers | 16 | 16 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,567 | Run metres | **1,707** |
| **541** | Post-contact metres | 513 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **86.7%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| **13** | Errors | 14 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 387 | Kick metres | **643** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 26 points. Wests Tigers led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 6/16 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 3.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 26' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Wests Tigers) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 42' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 67' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 0-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 4-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.65 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 61%, but Eels stay live at 39%. The ratings say otherwise: Eels sit 71 ELO points clear, 1398 to 1327, so the model is backing Wests Tigers against the ratings gap.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2026 Round 22.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Eels 17th against Wests Tigers 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Wests Tigers 4 |
| Last meeting | Eels 16-13 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 17th · Wests Tigers 11th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 17W–26L | 40% |
| Wests Tigers | 12W–19L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Eels 17W–26L (40%) and Wests Tigers 12W–19L (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 38.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 1623.8m | Run Metres | 1633.0m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 289.6 | Tackles | 312.8 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 32.0 |
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 13 – 16 | Eels |
| 2026 | R5 | Eels | 20 – 22 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R7 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 38 | Eels |
| 2024 | R27 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 60 | Eels |
| 2024 | R4 | Eels | 16 – 17 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 15th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 17th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Doueihi, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.92/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) | 1.71/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.42/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.71/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 12 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 64 · 92 | 44 · 77 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 619m/g | 585m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 71.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 15 | 17 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.4) +35% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.46) +35%
**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40% · Wingers 1.57/g (lg 1.26) +25% · Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.7) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 1 in 1g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sean Russell | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/21g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 3/5g | 11/34g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Zac Lomax | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 3/9g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jordan Samrani | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 14/54g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Ronald Volkman | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 9/70g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shaun Lane | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/15g | 7/56g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Kitione Kautoga | INT | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 2/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 67' 73' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/15g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/18g | 1/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Eels hold the ELO advantage (1398 vs 1327), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1398 · Wests Tigers 1327 · ELO difference: 71 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 892 (best 1145) | 1012 (best 1260) | Wests Tigers +119 |
| Backs | 905 (best 1023) | 955 (best 1040) | Wests Tigers +50 |
| Halves | 1038 (best 1038) | 1221 (best 1221) | Wests Tigers +183 |
| Hooker | 600 | 1023 | Wests Tigers +423 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)