AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Despite Grant Atkins's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 26 points. Wests Tigers led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
39%
Wests Tigers
61%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Eels carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1398 vs 1327). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 3.4 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 32.0 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Eels
29.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.0
Eels
-8.4
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1624
Eels
1633
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.8
Eels
3.6
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Eels 16W–25L (39%) and Wests Tigers 11W–16L (41%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Eels hold the ELO advantage (1398 vs 1327), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -3.4
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