# Dragons v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 24 – 25 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs roar back to hop past Dragons._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 59% / Rabbitohs 41% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 15 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (12' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (23' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Flanagan (32'), Kyle Flanagan (46'), Christian Tuipulotu (52' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Jye Gray (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Peter Mamouzelos (20'), Cody Walker (55'), Sean Keppie (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 59% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 24–25 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 2 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked the Dragons here, 59% and a 7.6-point win, built on a forward pack rated 1109 to 1018 and a hooker edge of 1170 to 950. Instead the Rabbitohs won it by a single point, 25-24, and a field goal after the siren-adjacent minutes did the damage. Close, but not the way anyone drew it up.

For a long stretch the read looked right. Jye Gray's penalty try had the Rabbitohs up 0-4 inside eight minutes, but the Dragons hit back through Tyrell Sloan twice and Kyle Flanagan twice, and by the 45th minute it was 18-12. Christian Tuipulotu made it 24-12 six minutes into the second half. At that point the Dragons were playing exactly like the side with the better forwards and the better hooker, running for 1,892 metres to 1,729 and busting 31 tackles to the Rabbitohs' 18.

Then the wheels came off, slowly. Cody Walker got the Rabbitohs back to 24-16, Sean Keppie made it 24-22 in the 70th, and Jamie Humphreys' field goal in the 75th settled it at 24-25. Twelve unanswered points from a side that had looked second-best for most of the night.

The Rabbitohs' halves pairing was rated well clear pre-match, 1214 to 888, and that gap is the most obvious explanation for a team that kept finding a way back into the contest despite getting beaten up everywhere else on the stat sheet. It's a reminder that a scrappy middle phase of the game doesn't always show up in the raw numbers until the back end.

Because everywhere else, this was a Dragons performance. They completed at 81%, same as the Rabbitohs, but made only 8 errors to South Sydney's 10. They cracked the line 7 times to 4, offloaded 13 times to a single offload from the Rabbitohs, and ground out 555 post-contact metres. Defensively they were miles tidier too, missing just 18 tackles at an effective rate of 94.5%, while the Rabbitohs missed 31 tackles and could only manage 86.6%.

By any conventional read of a footy stat sheet, the Dragons should have banked that one comfortably. They didn't, and that's the story of the last half-hour more than anything that happened before it.

Form lines actually flagged some of this. The Dragons came in averaging 30.4 points conceded across their last five, worse than the Rabbitohs' 27.6, so a leaky finish wasn't exactly out of character. The Rabbitohs, for their part, had been the more error-prone side historically (9.8 to 12.6) yet somehow finished with fewer errors on the night than the Dragons.

Alphr's model went 5 from 16 on this one, and the under on 51.5 combined points landed fine given the 49 points scored. But picking the Dragons by 7.6 and watching them concede three tries and a field goal in the last 25 minutes is the sort of thing that keeps a model humble. The shape of the game backed the pre-match numbers almost all the way through. The finish didn't.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 14 | 10 | 24 |
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 13 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 81% | Completion rate | 81% |
| **1,892** | Run metres | 1,729 |
| **555** | Post-contact metres | 508 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 18 |
| **13** | Offloads | 1 |
| **94.5%** | Effective tackle % | 86.6% |
| **18** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 611 | Kick metres | **680** |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 59% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–25. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 52% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Penalty Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 31' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 45' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 54' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 24-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Sean Keppie (Rabbitohs) — 24-22 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 75' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jamie Humphreys (Rabbitohs) — 24-25 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.45 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 59.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 59%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 41%.

Dragons own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Dragons by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 30-12 in 2026 Round 7.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 13th against Rabbitohs 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 3 · Rabbitohs 7 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 30-12 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 13th · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 18W–22L | 45% |
| Rabbitohs | 32W–29L | 52% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Rabbitohs hold a 7-point edge: 32W–29L (52%) vs Dragons's 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1656.6m | Run Metres | 1627.8m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 356.4 | Tackles | 325.4 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 25.2 |
| Rabbitohs | 1W–4L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Rabbitohs | 30 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 40 – 0 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R10 | Dragons | 28 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R15 | Dragons | 36 – 30 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 12th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Liddle, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Walker, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 11th) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.58/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.04/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 22 | 18 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 170m/g | 223m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 57 | 51 · 73 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 677m/g | 598m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.8/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 74% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 25 | 17 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 475m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.21) +52% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.4) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·2·0) | 8/14g | 1/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Mathew Feagai | Replacement | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0·2·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 3 in 1g | 11/10g (0·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·1·3) | 1/2g | 3/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 32' 46' |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Emre Guler | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 6/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 2/13g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/51g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/10g | 1/14g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/33g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Raymond Faitala-Mariner | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 2 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Fletcher Myers | CE | no games | 2/6g (0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/14g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 10 | Davvy Moale | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/5g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1410 · Rabbitohs 1407 · ELO difference: 3 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1109 (best 1254) | 1018 (best 1283) | Dragons +91 |
| Backs | 1057 (best 1155) | 997 (best 1063) | Dragons +60 |
| Halves | 888 (best 888) | 1214 (best 1214) | Rabbitohs +325 |
| Hooker | 1170 | 950 | Dragons +220 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Dragons predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)