Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 59% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Rabbitohs trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–25. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 5 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 52% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
59%
Rabbitohs
41%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Dragons ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model predicts Dragons by 7.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons -6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.6%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W L L L L | 25.2 |
Rabbitohs | W L L L L | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Dragons
27.6
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-5.2
Dragons
-10.0
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1657
Dragons
1628
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.2
Dragons
3.2
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Rabbitohs hold a 7-point edge: 30W–28L (52%) vs Dragons's 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Dragons get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Rabbitohs's +0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Dragons predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.6
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