# Cowboys v Sharks — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 12 – 36 Sharks

_Sharks sink their teeth into Cowboys._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 29% / Sharks 71% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 15 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Jaxon Purdue (27'), Scott Drinkwater (76' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: KL Iro (8' 1st), Briton Nikora (23' Tipped ⚡), Samuel Stonestreet (30' Tipped ⚡), Teig Wilton (57'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (61' Tipped ⚡), Samuel Stonestreet (74' Tipped ⚡), KL Iro (78' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 71% | Won |
| Cowboys | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 12–36 Sharks in NRL Round 2 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

KL Iro's second try, in the 78th minute, was almost academic. By then Sharks had already turned a tight arm-wrestle into a 36-12 procession, and the passage that did the damage came well before that, in a four-minute spell either side of the half-hour.

Sharks led just 8-0 through Iro's opener in the 8th and Briton Nikora's in the 23rd, the kind of scoreline that still let Cowboys believe. Jaxon Purdue crossed in the 26th to make it 4-8, and for a moment Cowboys had a foothold. Samuel Stonestreet answered three minutes later. Suddenly it was 6-14, Cowboys were chasing an eight-point deficit at the break that read 6-16, and the platform for everything that followed had been poured.

Purdue's sin-bin in the 45th didn't help matters, and Sharks made Cowboys pay for the man disadvantage in the only way that counts, with tries. Teig Wilton in the 57th, Ronaldo Mulitalo in the 61st, Stonestreet's second in the 73rd, three tries in sixteen minutes that stretched a manageable margin into a rout. Scott Drinkwater's late four-pointer for Cowboys was tidy-up work, nothing more.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the scoreboard did. Sharks ran 1,918 metres to 1,472, with 568 of it coming after contact against 449, and busted 37 tackles to Cowboys' 23. That's a forward pack asserting itself, and the pre-match numbers said it might: Sharks' 1038 to Cowboys' 1075 in raw forward rating was close enough, but the real gap was in the spine, where Sharks' halves (1171 to 1004) and hooker (1136 to 894) sat well clear. Ten line breaks to two is what a dominant halves pairing buys you.

Cowboys were actually the tidier side with the footy, completing at 78% and coughing up just 9 errors to Sharks' 11. It didn't matter. You can look after the ball all day, but if your defence misses 37 tackles to the opposition's 23, you're just handing back territory you never lost. Sharks' 90.8% effective tackle rate against Cowboys' 88.5% was the difference between a side that controlled the tempo and one that kept getting dragged into scrambling.

Cowboys' form line coming in, three wins from five and an average margin of plus-4, suggested a side capable of matching it with anyone. Sharks arrived at 2 from 5 with a minus-5 average margin. On the numbers, this should have been closer than 24 points.

Alphr's model saw the win coming, backing Sharks at 71% and landing on the right side of the 6.5-point line. The margin call, though, was well off, tipped at 3.8 points against an actual 24. The total was the bright spot, 45 predicted against 48 delivered, comfortably inside the under 50.5 line. Seven from sixteen overall. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Sharks | 16 | 20 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,472 | Run metres | **1,918** |
| 449 | Post-contact metres | **568** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 23 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| 88.5% | Effective tackle % | **90.8%** |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **23** |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 523 | Kick metres | **641** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. Sharks led 6–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 7/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 6.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Sharks's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Sharks have a 67% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Sin Bin — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 57' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 61' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 6-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 73' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 6-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 75' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 10-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.48 (edge -2.8%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 71% to see off Cowboys. Form leans Cowboys' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sharks by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sharks to win, not to win big.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 15th against Sharks 12th.

Sharks come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 3 · Sharks 7 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 26-16 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 15th · Sharks 12th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Rest gap | Cowboys 6d · Sharks 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–8L | 27% |
| Sharks | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Sharks have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (6 games for Sharks).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Sharks get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.0pts |
| 1778.2m | Run Metres | 1653.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 333.8 | Tackles | 375.0 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 3W–2L | 28.0 |
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Sharks | 26 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R8 | Cowboys | 46 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R22 | Sharks | 32 – 12 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | SF | Sharks | 26 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R21 | Cowboys | 30 – 22 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 4th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.74 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.04/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.35/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.74/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 12th) | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 20 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 204m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 74 · 53 | 63 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 761m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 20.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.9% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 25 | 27 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 482m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 16/56g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 2/8g | 1/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 21% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 26/44g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 16/42g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/22g | 3/54g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 17/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam McIntyre | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 4/35g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 6/41g | 8% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/8g (0·1·0·1·2·2·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 74' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 4/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 8' 78' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·3·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 11/12g | 5/5g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.44 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 1/4g | 32% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1513 · Sharks 1532 · ELO difference: 19 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1075 (best 1230) | 1038 (best 1304) | Cowboys +38 |
| Backs | 930 (best 1150) | 958 (best 1106) | Sharks +28 |
| Halves | 1004 (best 1004) | 1171 (best 1171) | Sharks +167 |
| Hooker | 894 | 1136 | Sharks +242 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Sharks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)