Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. Sharks led 6–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Sharks's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Sharks have a 75% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
29%
Sharks
71%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 3.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.8%
Line / Spread
Sharks +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.8%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Sharks | W W L L L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Cowboys
25.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
4.0
Cowboys
-5.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1778
Cowboys
1653
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.4
Cowboys
5.2
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Sharks have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 11 (27%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Sharks).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Sharks get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Sharks predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.8
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