NRL | Round 2

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
CRO
Sharks
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SATURDAY 15 MAR, 5:30 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Sharks's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Sharks have a 67% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48 — within 3 points. Sharks led 6–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

71%SharksFavourite

Cowboys

29%

Sharks

71%

AI Match Overview

Sharks are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 3.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sharks to Win @1.48

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.8%

Line / Spread

Sharks +6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.8%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+14.7%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WWWLL
28.0
Sharks
WWLLL
20.8

Avg Conceded

24.0

Cowboys

25.8

Sharks

Avg Margin

4.0

Cowboys

-5.0

Sharks

Run Metres

1778

Cowboys

1653

Sharks

Line Breaks

5.4

Cowboys

5.2

Sharks

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Sharks
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NQL
33%3W 6L
CRO
67%2W 1L

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Sharks have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 9 (33%). That's a 34‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.2 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Sharks — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

45.2 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1
Aug 2025NQL 12 - 32 CRO
Oct 2024NQL 18 - 26 CRO
Aug 2024NQL 30 - 22 CRO
Apr 2024NQL 6 - 42 CRO
Sep 2023NQL 12 - 32 CRO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1513Overall1532
CRO
ELO difference: -19 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1075Forwards1038
Best: 1230NQL +38Best: 1304
930Backs958
Best: 1150CRO +28Best: 1106
1004Halves1171
Best: 1004CRO +167Best: 1171
894Hooker1136
CRO +242

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
CRO
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
28.0pts
Avg Score
20.8pts
24.0pts
Avg Conceded
25.8pts
4.0pts
Avg Margin
-5.0pts
1778.2m
Run Metres
1653.0m
5.4
Line Breaks
5.2
333.8
Tackles
375.0
11.6
Errors
12.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Sharks
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Cowboys
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Sharks
4
Halves Control9.0%
Sharks
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Cowboys
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Cowboys

Model Confidence

71%

Sharks predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.8

3/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props