# Bulldogs v Titans — NRL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 40 – 24 Titans

_Bulldogs hound Titans._

Half time: 22 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 56% / Titans 44% · Belmore Sports Ground, Sydney · Sun, 16 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Marcelo Montoya (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jaeman Salmon (11'), Reed Mahoney (15'), Josh Curran (20'), Jacob Preston (41'), Kurt Mann (46'), Connor Tracey (77' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Alofiana Khan-Pereira (30' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (37' Tipped ⚡), Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (52'), Jojo Fifita (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 56% | Won |
| Titans | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 40–24 Titans in NRL Round 2 at Belmore Sports Ground, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty minutes in, this one was already over as a contest. Bulldogs scored four unanswered tries, Marcelo Montoya, Jaeman Salmon, Reed Mahoney and Josh Curran all crossing between the 1st and 19th minutes, and by the time the Titans got on the board it read 20-0. Everything after that was the Titans trying to climb out of a hole that deep.

Full time: Bulldogs 40, Titans 24. Half-time was 22-12, which tells you the top order did the damage and the back half was mostly about the Bulldogs managing a healthy lead against a side that refused to go quietly.

To their credit, the Titans didn't fold. Alofiana Khan-Pereira scored twice either side of half-time, at the 29th and 37th minute, dragging it back to 22-12 by the break. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Jojo Fifita added tries either side of the hour mark to get within ten at 34-22, and again at 34-24 territory it briefly felt live. But the Bulldogs had an answer every time, with Jacob Preston, Kurt Mann and Connor Tracey all crossing in reply, the last of them in the 77th minute to put it well beyond reach.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw in that opening burst. Bulldogs ran for 1,811 metres to the Titans' 1,515, a gap of nearly 300 metres that shows up directly in the six line breaks to five and the extra territory that comes with it. They also held the ball more, 52 to 48 percent, and looked after it better when they had it, just 12 errors to 13 against a completion rate of 75%.

Individually it's hard to go past the sheer volume of Bulldogs try scorers. Seven different players crossed the line for them, against four for the Titans, and that spread is what a 20-point head start buys you. Khan-Pereira's brace was the best individual return on the day, but two tries against seven was never going to be enough.

The Titans actually shaded a few of the fine margins, more tackle breaks (32 to 31), more offloads (13 to 11) and a better effective tackle percentage (87.0% to 85.2%). None of it mattered much once they were staring down a 20-point deficit inside the first quarter. Missed tackles were close, 31 to 32, so this wasn't a defensive horror show from either side, it was one team's start against the other's.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a Bulldogs win but nowhere near this shape. Alphr's model gave the Bulldogs 56% and picked them by 7.8 points, with a combined total of 42. The final margin was 16, and the game produced 64 points, 22 more than tipped. The halves rating gap, 1164 to 1049 in the Bulldogs' favour, looks like the number that mattered most given how that opening quarter unfolded. Model finished 7 from 16 on the match, and the Bulldogs comfortably covered the 8.5-point line.

Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 22 | 18 | 40 |
| Titans | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 75% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| **1,811** | Run metres | 1,515 |
| **644** | Post-contact metres | 600 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 11 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.2% | Effective tackle % | **87.0%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| **12** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **629** | Kick metres | 580 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 7.8 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 7/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 10' Try — Jaeman Salmon (Bulldogs) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 14' Try — Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 19' Try — Josh Curran (Bulldogs) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 29' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 37' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 22-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 40' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 26-12 · win-prob swing +10 pts
- 46' Try — Kurt Mann (Bulldogs) — 32-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 52' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 34-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 62' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 34-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 77' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 38-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.40 (edge -14.1%) — model probability 55.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 56%, but Titans stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 122 ELO points clear, 1522 to 1400. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Bulldogs have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 30-12 in 2026 Round 17.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 5th against Titans 9th.

Titans come in fresher, 30 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 6 · Titans 4 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 30-12 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 5th · Titans 9th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Titans 0% |
| Rest gap | Bulldogs 8d · Titans 30d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 10W–20L | 33% |
| Titans | 8W–18L | 31% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Bulldogs 10W–20L (33%) and Titans 8W–18L (31%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Titans get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Bulldogs's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -22.8pts |
| 1595.4m | Run Metres | 1694.4m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 353.6 | Tackles | 350.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 22.4 |
| Titans | 0W–5L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Titans | 12 – 30 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R9 | Titans | 18 – 38 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R3 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Titans |
| 2023 | R27 | Titans | 34 – 30 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R12 | Bulldogs | 20 – 18 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 12th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Crichton, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Khan-Pereira, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 10th) | 0.79/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.28/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.58/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 5 | 10 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 45 | 61 · 65 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 779m/g | 749m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.9% | 74% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 12 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 449m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.4) +55% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Belmore Sports Ground. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 1/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 29% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 13 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $46.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 17 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 11' |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | no games | 10/10g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0·3·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 37' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/6g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Jojo Fifita | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·2·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/18g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | no games | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 14 | Chris Randall | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | David Fifita | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Jaimin Jolliffe | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brock Gray | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1522 · Titans 1400 · ELO difference: 122 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1132 (best 1296) | 1105 (best 1174) | Bulldogs +27 |
| Backs | 875 (best 993) | 1025 (best 1076) | Titans +150 |
| Halves | 1164 (best 1164) | 1049 (best 1049) | Bulldogs +115 |
| Hooker | 704 | 1018 | Titans +314 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)