Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 7.8 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 34% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
56%
Titans
44%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1400). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W L L L | 22.4 |
Titans | L L L L L | 12.8 |
Avg Conceded
28.0
Bulldogs
35.6
Titans
Avg Margin
-5.6
Bulldogs
-22.8
Titans
Run Metres
1595
Bulldogs
1694
Titans
Line Breaks
4.0
Bulldogs
3.0
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Bulldogs hold a 5-point edge: 10W–19L (34%) vs Titans's 7W–17L (29%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Titans get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Bulldogs's -0.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.8
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