NRL | Round 2

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
GLD
Titans
BELMORE SPORTS GROUND, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 16 MAR, 6:15 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 7.8 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

56%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

56%

Titans

44%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1400). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.40

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.1%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.1%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+14.1%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWLLL
22.4
Titans
LLLLL
12.8

Avg Conceded

28.0

Bulldogs

35.6

Titans

Avg Margin

-5.6

Bulldogs

-22.8

Titans

Run Metres

1595

Bulldogs

1694

Titans

Line Breaks

4.0

Bulldogs

3.0

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CBY
33%9W 18L
GLD
32%7W 15L

Both sides have a similar record when Peter Gough officiates — Bulldogs 9W–18L (33%) and Titans 7W–15L (32%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 44.1 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.1 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Bulldogs lead 4-1
May 2025CBY 38 - 18 GLD
Mar 2024CBY 32 - 0 GLD
Sep 2023CBY 30 - 34 GLD
May 2023CBY 20 - 18 GLD
Jul 2022CBY 36 - 26 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1522Overall1400
GLD
ELO difference: +122 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1132Forwards1105
Best: 1296CBY +27Best: 1174
875Backs1025
Best: 993GLD +150Best: 1076
1164Halves1049
Best: 1164CBY +115Best: 1049
704Hooker1018
GLD +314

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
GLD
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
22.4pts
Avg Score
12.8pts
28.0pts
Avg Conceded
35.6pts
-5.6pts
Avg Margin
-22.8pts
1595.4m
Run Metres
1694.4m
4.0
Line Breaks
3.0
353.6
Tackles
350.2
10.8
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Titans

Model Confidence

56%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.8

2/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props