# Warriors v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 34 – 14 Wests Tigers

_Warriors march past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 16 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 66% / Wests Tigers 34% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sun, 13 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Rocco Berry (8' Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (18' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (33' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (49' Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (73' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (79' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Jeral Skelton (2' 1st), Adam Doueihi (27'), Adam Doueihi (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 66% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 34–14 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 19 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers had the ball in the end zone inside the first minute. Jeral Skelton crossed early, and for about six minutes the Warriors were the team playing catch up. It didn't last.

Rocco Berry levelled it at 4-4 by the seven minute mark, and from there the home side just kept finding answers. Chanel Harris-Tavita's first try on 18 minutes put Warriors in front for good, and even when Adam Doueihi hit back for the Tigers on 27 minutes to make it 12-8, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak had the reply ready five minutes later. Warriors went to the break up 16-8, and the shape of the game was already set: Tigers scoring in bursts, Warriors matching them stride for stride and then edging clear.

The second half is where it stopped being a contest. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck extended the lead to 20-8 just after the hour mark approached, and although Doueihi grabbed his second to keep the margin at 22-12, that was as close as Wests Tigers would get. Harris-Tavita's second, on 72 minutes, and Leka Halasima's late try took the final margin out to 34-14. What started as a level contest through the first quarter of an hour finished as a twenty-point beating, and the gap never really looked like closing once Watene-Zelezniak's try went up on the board.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. Warriors broke the line ten times to three, which is the kind of gulf that turns close tries into routine ones. They ran for 1,739 metres to 1,341, and post-contact metres told the same story: 562 to 422, meaning Warriors were finishing carries with a shove rather than a stop. Wests Tigers' defence missed 35 tackles against the Warriors' 29, and against a side generating that much go-forward, those misses compound fast.

What makes the loss sting more for Wests Tigers is where they were meant to have the edge. Their halves rating of 1,331 dwarfed the Warriors' 902 coming in, and their backs were rated 1,061 to 827. On paper that's a mismatch in the Tigers' favour. On the day, none of it translated into control, Wests Tigers actually led the kicking metres, 597 to 476, which speaks to territory but not to points on the board.

The Warriors' forward pack, rated behind Wests Tigers' at 1,078 to 1,144, still found more go-forward where it counted, and Harris-Tavita's double from the halves position did more damage than the more highly rated Tigers spine managed all game.

Alphr's model had Warriors as 66% favourites and got the winner right, but the margin was where it fell short: picked at 7.5 points, the actual gap was 20. The total of 43 was closer to the mark, with the game finishing on 48. Warriors covered the 9.5 line comfortably, and on this one, the model went 7 from 16. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 16 | 18 | 34 |
| Wests Tigers | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 81% |
| **1,739** | Run metres | 1,341 |
| **562** | Post-contact metres | 422 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **35** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| **90.7%** | Effective tackle % | 88.1% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 476 | Kick metres | **597** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Warriors led 16–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 7/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Warriors's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Warriors have a 41% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 7' Try — Rocco Berry (Warriors) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 32' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 16-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 20-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 22-12 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 72' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 26-14 · win-prob swing +9 pts
- 79' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 32-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.37 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 66% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 191 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1335. Form leans Warriors' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Wests Tigers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warriors by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 32-6 in 2026 Round 19.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Wests Tigers 14th.

Warriors come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 9 · Wests Tigers 1 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 32-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Wests Tigers 14th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Rest gap | Warriors 14d · Wests Tigers 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12W–17L | 41% |
| Wests Tigers | 11W–28L | 28% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Warriors hold a 13-point edge: 12W–17L (41%) vs Wests Tigers's 11W–28L (28%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Warriors get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Wests Tigers's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1582.0m | Run Metres | 1689.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 373.4 | Tackles | 353.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 23.2 |
| Wests Tigers | 1W–4L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 32 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R4 | Warriors | 14 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R4 | Wests Tigers | 24 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R21 | Warriors | 28 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 30 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.73 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.19 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 12th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: To'a, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.73/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.19/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.19/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.87/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 7 | 7 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 243m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 83.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 34 | 35 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 635m/g | 684m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.5/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 520m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.43) +47% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/13g | 17/28g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/27g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 12/50g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/22g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 73' |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 2/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/7g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunia Turuva | FB | 10 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 2 | Charlie Staines | WG | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 3/2g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 27' 57' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tristan Hope | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Sione Fainu | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1526 · Wests Tigers 1335 · ELO difference: 191 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1078 (best 1245) | 1144 (best 1296) | Wests Tigers +66 |
| Backs | 827 (best 919) | 1061 (best 1220) | Wests Tigers +235 |
| Halves | 902 (best 902) | 1331 (best 1331) | Wests Tigers +430 |
| Hooker | 966 | 943 | Warriors +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Warriors predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)