Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Warriors led 16–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Warriors's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Warriors have a 40% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
66%
Wests Tigers
34%
AI Match Overview
Warriors are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warriors carry a 191-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1335). Recent form favours Warriors with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Warriors by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Line / Spread
Warriors -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 23.2 |
Wests Tigers | W L L L L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Warriors
24.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
1.2
Warriors
-5.6
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1582
Warriors
1690
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
3.8
Warriors
4.2
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Warriors hold a 12-point edge: 10W–15L (40%) vs Wests Tigers's 11W–28L (28%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Warriors predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.5
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