Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 7.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Broncos have a 50% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
38%
Broncos
62%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 232-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1290). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.1 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.5%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 20.4 |
Broncos | W W W W L | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Titans
21.2
Broncos
Avg Margin
-8.8
Titans
5.2
Broncos
Run Metres
1681
Titans
1599
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.8
Titans
6.8
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Broncos have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Broncos).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Broncos's -1.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Broncos predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -7.1
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