# Titans v Broncos — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 14 – 26 Broncos

_Broncos charge down Titans._

Half time: 2 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 38% / Broncos 62% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 13 July, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jojo Fifita (47' Tipped ⚡), Jojo Fifita (57' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Ben Talty (34' 1st), Jack Gosiewski (37'), Reece Walsh (43' Tipped ⚡), Billy Walters (61')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 62% | Won |
| Titans | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 14–26 Broncos in NRL Round 19 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-six. That's how many tackles the Broncos busted through Titans defenders, and it's also how many tackles the Titans missed trying to stop them. Same number, two different problems, one final score: Broncos 26, Titans 14 at Cbus Super Stadium.

The Titans actually won the discipline battle on paper. They completed at 70% to the Broncos' 78%, sure, but they only coughed the ball up 14 times to 16 and gave away fewer penalties, four to six. None of that mattered much when the bloke carrying it kept slipping out of grasp. The Broncos ran for 1,827 metres to the Titans' 1,607, and 46 tackle breaks against 28 tells you exactly where that came from.

The scoreboard was already lopsided by half-time, 14-2, and the timeline shows why. Ben Talty opened it in the 33rd minute, Jack Gosiewski followed three minutes later, then Reece Walsh crossed just after the break to make it 2-18. Three tries in nine minutes of game time is the kind of stretch that buries a side before it's had a chance to find any rhythm.

Jojo Fifita gave the Titans something to build on, scoring either side of the hour to drag it to 12-20, and for a moment there was a sniff of a contest. Billy Walters shut that down in the 61st minute, and from 14-24 the Titans never had enough ball or field position to chase it down properly.

That's the other half of the story: territory. The Broncos kicked for 630 metres to the Titans' 412, and with 53% of possession in their pocket, they simply spent more of the match camped in the right parts of the field. The Titans' line-break count, three to the Broncos' five, reflects a side that had the ball less often and did less with it when they did.

None of it is a shock given the shape of both sides coming in. The Broncos' halves rated 1230 against the Titans' 1058, the biggest gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in field position and in the tries that came from broken play. The Titans' edge up front, 1155 to 1111, and in the hooker role, 1124 to 910, wasn't enough to offset it.

Form lines back it up too. The Broncos arrived on four wins from their last five, averaging 26.4 points scored and conceding just 21.2. The Titans had won one of their last five, leaking 29.2 a game and winning by an average margin of minus 8.8. This result sits right inside both trends, and the Broncos' recent line-break average of 6.8 a game against the Titans' 3.8 lined up almost exactly with what played out on the field.

Alphr's model had the Broncos favourites at 62% and picked the margin at 7.1 points against an actual 12. Not a bad read for a match that was over as a contest well before full time. The Broncos covered the 11.5-point line, and the under on 50.5 total points landed too. Five from sixteen on the card overall, but this one it called about as straight as they come.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| Broncos | 14 | 12 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 70% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,607 | Run metres | **1,827** |
| 544 | Post-contact metres | **580** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **85.7%** | Effective tackle % | 85.0% |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| **14** | Errors | 16 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 412 | Kick metres | **630** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 7.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 11.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Broncos have a 50% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 33' Try — Ben Talty (Broncos) — 2-6 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 36' Try — Jack Gosiewski (Broncos) — 2-12 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 42' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 2-18 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 47' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 6-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 12-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 61' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 14-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.27 (edge -14.5%) — model probability 61.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 7 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 62%, but Titans stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 232 ELO points clear, 1522 to 1290. Form leans Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Broncos by 7.1, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 28-23 in 2026 Round 14.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Broncos 5th.

Titans come in fresher, 14 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 4 · Broncos 6 |
| Last meeting | Titans 28-23 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Broncos 5th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Broncos 100% |
| Rest gap | Titans 14d · Broncos 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |
| Broncos | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Broncos have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 16 (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Broncos).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Titans get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Broncos's -1.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 1680.8m | Run Metres | 1599.0m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 341.2 | Tackles | 353.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.4 |
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Broncos | 23 – 28 | Titans |
| 2026 | R5 | Titans | 12 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R14 | Broncos | 44 – 14 | Titans |
| 2024 | R22 | Titans | 46 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R12 | Broncos | 34 – 36 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 11th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Karapani, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.69/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 12th) | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.93/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.06/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 13 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 49 | 47 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 667m/g | 661m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 594m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.68) +3%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.35/g (lg 0.16) +119% · Fullbacks 0.71/g (lg 0.43) +65% · 2nd Rows 0.68/g (lg 0.45) +51%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Brimson | FB | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 26/59g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Jaylan De Groot | WG | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 18/63g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 9/23g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 57' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 6/11g | 31/61g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 9/31g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 15/31g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/69g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 5/29g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 11/39g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/34g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | Replacement | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 4/44g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | David Fifita | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 22/43g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/26g | 8% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/8g | 4/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 6 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 3/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | PR | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Hunt | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 13/27g | 9/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 17 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1290 · Broncos 1522 · ELO difference: 232 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1155 (best 1243) | 1111 (best 1331) | Titans +44 |
| Backs | 1069 (best 1194) | 1013 (best 1158) | Titans +56 |
| Halves | 1058 (best 1058) | 1230 (best 1230) | Broncos +172 |
| Hooker | 1124 | 910 | Titans +214 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Broncos predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)