AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 5 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Broncos have a 33% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 7.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Titans
38%
Broncos
62%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 232-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1290). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.1 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.5%
Line / Spread
Broncos +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.5%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | WLLLL | 20.4 |
Broncos | WWWWL | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Titans
21.2
Broncos
Avg Margin
-8.8
Titans
5.2
Broncos
Run Metres
1681
Titans
1599
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.8
Titans
6.8
Broncos
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Broncos hold a 10‑point edge: 1W–2L (33%) vs Titans's 3W–10L (23%) across all games Liam Kennedy has refereed for each side. His games average 45.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Broncos — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.4 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Broncos predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -7.1
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