Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
70%
Dolphins
30%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Sharks counter with Halves Control and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1475). Recent form favours Dolphins with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.9%
Line / Spread
Sharks -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.9%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W L L L L | 18.0 |
Dolphins | W W W W L | 45.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.8
Sharks
14.4
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-14.8
Sharks
31.2
Dolphins
Run Metres
1629
Sharks
1967
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
7.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 42 games (71%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 5 from 14 (36%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Sharks get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's +0.0. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1590 vs 1475), but the market favours Sharks (@1.68).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Sharks predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.