# Sharks v Dolphins — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 24 – 12 Dolphins

_Sharks sink their teeth into Dolphins._

Half time: 6 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 70% / Dolphins 30% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 11 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Nicho Hynes (8' 1st), Jesse Ramien (55'), Nicho Hynes (75' 1st), Sione Katoa (80' Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Max Feagai (66'), Herbie Farnworth (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 70% | Won |
| Dolphins | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 24–12 Dolphins in NRL Round 19 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Sharks in front by 7.5 points before kick-off, on the back of a 70% win probability. The final margin was 12. Close enough to call it a good read, not close enough to call it exact, and the extra points tell their own story about how this one actually played out.

Sharks won 24-12 at Sharks Stadium, having led 6-0 at half-time off Nicho Hynes's try in the 7th minute. Sharks finished with 54% possession, 2,087 run metres to 1,737, and 670 post-contact metres, the kind of grind-it-out yardage that comes from a forward pack getting on top in the collisions, even though the pre-match ratings had Dolphins stronger up front, 1044 to 996.

Where the model's read held firm was the halves. Sharks were rated the stronger pairing going in, 1267 to 1203, and Hynes made that count on his own, finishing with two tries either side of the other scoring. His first opened the account in the 7th, his second arrived in the 74th to push the lead back out to six after Dolphins had clawed within four. Jesse Ramien's try in the 54th made it 12-0 and looked, at that point, like the start of a rout.

It wasn't. Dolphins came home hard. Max Feagai crossed in the 66th, Herbie Farnworth followed four minutes later, and suddenly a game that looked settled was a two-score contest again. That burst lines up with the form Dolphins brought into the match: four wins from their last five, an average score of 45.6, a side used to scoring in bunches. Sharks, by contrast, arrived having won just once in five and conceding an average of 32.8. For a stretch in the second half, that form line looked like it was about to matter.

It didn't quite get there. Sione Katoa's try in the 79th closed it out at 24-12, and the stat sheet explains why the Dolphins fightback fell short rather than landed.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Dolphins | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 78% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **2,087** | Run metres | 1,737 |
| **670** | Post-contact metres | 576 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **89.1%** | Effective tackle % | 87.0% |
| **27** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 600 | Kick metres | **711** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 3.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 70% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 54' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 66' Try — Max Feagai (Dolphins) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 70' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 74' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 79' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.68 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 69.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 70% to see off Dolphins. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 115 ELO points clear, 1590 to 1475, so the model is backing Sharks against the ratings gap. Form leans Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Sharks.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Sharks, which says Halves Control and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Sharks by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 66-0 in 2026 Round 19.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sharks 10th against Dolphins 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Sharks 2 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 66-0 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 10th · Dolphins 7th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 30W–13L | 70% |
| Dolphins | 7W–10L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 43 games (70%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 7 from 17 (41%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Sharks get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 45.6pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | 31.2pts |
| 1629.2m | Run Metres | 1967.0m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 356.8 | Tackles | 306.2 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 1W–4L | 18.0 |
| Dolphins | 4W–1L | 45.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Dolphins lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Dolphins | 0 – 66 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R3 | Sharks | 10 – 38 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R15 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R10 | Sharks | 16 – 36 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 8th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Lemuelu, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) | 2.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.06/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.06/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 175m/g | 226m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 35 | 48 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 712m/g | 767m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.9% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 11 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 532m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.68) +35%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 1/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 8' 75' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 7 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | Replacement | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Max Feagai | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 10 in 16g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 5 | Jake Averillo | FB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Sean O'Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Aublix Tawha | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1590 vs 1475), but the market favours Sharks (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1475 · Dolphins 1590 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 996 (best 1234) | 1044 (best 1252) | Dolphins +47 |
| Backs | 935 (best 1016) | 1016 (best 1110) | Dolphins +81 |
| Halves | 1267 (best 1267) | 1203 (best 1203) | Sharks +64 |
| Hooker | 1062 | 1184 | Dolphins +122 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Sharks predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)