AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 7.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
70%
Dolphins
30%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sharks counter with Halves Control and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1475). Recent form favours Dolphins with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.9%
Line / Spread
Sharks -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.9%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WLLLL | 18.0 |
Dolphins | WWWWL | 45.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.8
Sharks
14.4
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-14.8
Sharks
31.2
Dolphins
Run Metres
1629
Sharks
1967
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
7.6
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 29 of 41 games (71%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 11 (36%). That's a 35‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1590 vs 1475), but the market favours Sharks (@1.68).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Sharks predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.5
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