Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. Storm trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–32. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Storm have a 69% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
37%
Storm
63%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Storm carry a 297-point ELO rating advantage (1697 vs 1400). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.6 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 16.8 |
Storm | W W W W W | 29.4 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Knights
16.0
Storm
Avg Margin
-2.4
Knights
13.4
Storm
Run Metres
1795
Knights
1836
Storm
Line Breaks
3.8
Knights
3.8
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 9 of 13 games (69%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Knights get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Storm's +0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -6.6
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