# Knights v Storm — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 14 – 32 Storm

_Storm fight back to blow away Knights._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 37% / Storm 63% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sat, 12 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Dominic Young (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dominic Young (27' 1st Tipped 🎯), Fletcher Hunt (71') · Storm: Eliesa Katoa (39' Tipped ⚡), Trent Loiero (44'), Kane Bradley (47'), Trent Loiero (58'), Kane Bradley (61'), Eliesa Katoa (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 63% | Won |
| Knights | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 14–32 Storm in NRL Round 19 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-three minutes flipped this game on its head. Knights led 8-6 at the break off two Dominic Young tries, the first in the 11th minute, the second in the 27th, and for a stretch McDonald Jones Stadium had a genuine contest on its hands. Then Storm found five tries without reply between the 38th and 61st minutes: Eliesa Katoa, Trent Loiero, Kane Bradley, Loiero again, Bradley again. An 8-6 half-time lead for the Knights turned into an 8-26 canyon inside 23 minutes of the second half. Fletcher Hunt scored for the Knights in the 70th minute and Katoa added his second in the 75th, but the scoreboard by then had already made up its mind. Final score: Storm 32, Knights 14.

The numbers explain why that burst stuck. Storm carried for 1,889 run metres to the Knights' 1,725, and made 603 post-contact metres to 506. That gap, nearly 100 extra metres after first contact, is the difference between a pack that's rolling forward and one that's being worn down. Storm's kicking game did its bit too, 720 metres to 629, which meant the Knights spent long patches of the second half defending their own end rather than attacking Storm's.

Oddly, the Knights were the tidier side with the ball. They completed at 83% to Storm's 80% and gave up just 9 errors to Storm's 10. Cleaner hands didn't count for much when the collisions and the territory battle both went Storm's way. Possession was close, 53% to 47% in Storm's favour, but it was what Storm did with the ball, not how much of it they had, that decided things.

Elsewhere the two sides were nearly dead level.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Storm | 6 | 26 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| 1,725 | Run metres | **1,889** |
| 506 | Post-contact metres | **603** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **87.9%** | Effective tackle % | 87.5% |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| **9** | Errors | 10 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 629 | Kick metres | **720** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. Storm trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–32. The model went 6/16 on this match. Storm covered the 12.5-point line. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Storm have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 8-2 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 38' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 8-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 43' Try — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Kane Bradley (Storm) — 8-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 58' Try — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 8-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 61' Try — Kane Bradley (Storm) — 8-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 70' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 12-26 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 75' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 14-30 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.24 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 63%, but Knights stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 297 ELO points clear, 1697 to 1400. Form leans Storm's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Storm by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 32-30 in 2026 Round 14.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 13th against Storm 2nd.

Knights come in fresher, 14 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 2 · Storm 8 |
| Last meeting | Storm 32-30 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 13th · Storm 2nd |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Storm 100% |
| Rest gap | Knights 14d · Storm 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Storm | 11W–4L | 73% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Knights get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Storm's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | 13.4pts |
| 1794.6m | Run Metres | 1836.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 401.0 | Tackles | 328.4 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 16.8 |
| Storm | 5W–0L | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Storm | 32 – 30 | Knights |
| 2024 | R14 | Storm | 36 – 28 | Knights |
| 2024 | R3 | Knights | 14 – 12 | Storm |
| 2023 | R21 | Knights | 26 – 18 | Storm |
| 2022 | R8 | Knights | 2 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 3rd there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.6 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Hughes, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.81/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.06/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) | 2.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.56/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 238m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 24 | 47 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 814m/g | 703m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.7/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.7% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 9 | 15 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 560m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.65/g (lg 0.68) -4% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.1) -30%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 24/26g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 27' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 25/104g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 19/41g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 20/28g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/74g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/50g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/25g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 7% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 10/50g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/38g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/39g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/43g | 12% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 10 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joe Chan | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | FB | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·2) | 5/9g | 3/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tyran Wishart | 5/8 | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Tui Kamikamica | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | Replacement | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/45g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 76' |
| 13 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Stefano Utoikamanu | LK | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1400 · Storm 1697 · ELO difference: 297 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1167 (best 1273) | 1126 (best 1300) | Knights +41 |
| Backs | 987 (best 1069) | 1075 (best 1205) | Storm +88 |
| Halves | 1210 (best 1210) | 1243 (best 1243) | Storm +33 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1057 | Knights +143 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Storm predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)