AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Panthers have a 68% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42 — within 3 points. Panthers led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
40%
Panthers
60%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Panthers carry a 197-point ELO rating advantage (1567 vs 1370). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Panthers by 3.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.4%
Line / Spread
Panthers +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.4%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 21.6 |
Panthers | WWWWL | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Eels
14.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-0.8
Eels
1.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1690
Eels
1772
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.0
Eels
4.4
Panthers
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 13 of 19 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 26 (38%). That's a 30‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Panthers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.5
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