Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. Panthers led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
40%
Panthers
60%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Panthers carry a 197-point ELO rating advantage (1567 vs 1370). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Panthers by 3.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.4%
Line / Spread
Panthers +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.4%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 21.6 |
Panthers | W W W W L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Eels
14.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-0.8
Eels
1.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1690
Eels
1772
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.0
Eels
4.4
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 20 games (70%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Eels get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Panthers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.