# Eels v Panthers — NRL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 10 – 32 Panthers

_Panthers pounce on Eels._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 40% / Panthers 60% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 13 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Kitione Kautoga (15' 1st), Zac Lomax (33' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (21' Tipped ⚡), Luke Garner (40' Tipped ⚡), Izack Tago (54'), Paul Alamoti (63' Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (71'), Lindsay Smith (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 60% | Won |
| Eels | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 10–32 Panthers in NRL Round 19 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Panthers winning by 3.5 points. They won by 22. Right team, wrong universe on the margin, and it's worth walking back through the game to see exactly where the read fell apart.

The early signs actually backed the model in. Kitione Kautoga opened the scoring for the Eels in the 14th minute and it was 4-0, then Thomas Jenkins hit back for Panthers a week later at 21 minutes to make it 6-4. Zac Lomax restored the Eels lead just before the half, 10-6, and Luke Garner's try right on the stroke of half-time flipped it again, 10-12 at the break. Four tries, four lead changes, one point in it heading to the sheds. That's about as tight as a 3.5-point prediction could hope to look.

Then the second half turned into a different contest entirely. Izack Tago in the 54th, Paul Alamoti in the 62nd, Nathan Cleary in the 71st, Lindsay Smith in the 78th. Four unanswered tries, the Eels held scoreless after the break, and a one-point game became a 22-point beating. The scoreboard says Panthers 32, Eels 10. The story is really about the second 40.

Look at the stat sheet and it's not hard to see why the Eels ran out of road. Panthers finished with 9 line breaks to 2, and that gap is the whole match in one number. Completion rate told the same tale: Panthers at 87% against the Eels' 75%, with the Eels coughing up the ball 20 times to Panthers' 9. You can't hold a lead conceding that much possession through your own hands.

Territory was just as lopsided. Panthers kicked for 779 metres to the Eels' 384, more than double, and paired it with 54% of total possession. Run metres favoured Panthers too, 1,668 to 1,461, though the Eels actually won the tackle-break count evenly at 36 apiece and got more out of their footwork with 16 offloads to Panthers' 8. Pity that creativity wasn't backed up by discipline, because 20 errors against a side completing at 87% was always going to be punished eventually.

The pre-match numbers pointed to this kind of gap even if the final margin blew past them. Panthers came in with the form: four wins from five, an average margin of plus-1 compared to the Eels' minus-0.8, and importantly a hooker rating of 1094 to the Eels' 600. That's a gulf, and it showed up in the ruck speed feeding those line breaks. The Eels held an edge in the backs on paper, 1159 to 1063, and it flickered through in Lomax's try and the Eels' offload count, but it wasn't enough to counter a forward pack and halves combination that had Panthers rated favourites by ELO, 1567 to 1370.

Alphr's model called the winner correctly at 60% and landed the total prediction within three points, 45 versus the actual 42. The margin was where it came unstuck, tipping a three-point arm wrestle when Panthers had another gear entirely waiting for the second half. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Panthers | 12 | 20 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,461 | Run metres | **1,668** |
| 468 | Post-contact metres | **499** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 36 | Tackle breaks | 36 |
| **16** | Offloads | 8 |
| **88.5%** | Effective tackle % | 83.2% |
| 36 | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 20 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 384 | Kick metres | **779** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. Panthers led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 6/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 11.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 67% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Kitione Kautoga (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 21' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 33' Try — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 40' Try — Luke Garner (Panthers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing -29 pts
- 54' Try — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 62' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 71' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 10-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 78' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 10-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.27 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 60%, but Eels stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 197 ELO points clear, 1567 to 1370. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 21.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Eels 15th against Panthers 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 24-18 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 15th · Panthers 6th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 10W–20L | 33% |
| Panthers | 14W–7L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 21 games (67%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Eels get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.6pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 1690.2m | Run Metres | 1771.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 365.0 | Tackles | 406.8 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 21.6 |
| Panthers | 4W–1L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Eels | 18 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2026 | R4 | Panthers | 48 – 20 | Eels |
| 2025 | R13 | Panthers | 18 – 10 | Eels |
| 2024 | R23 | Eels | 34 – 36 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R2 | Panthers | 26 – 18 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 12th-ranked right edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 11th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Lomax, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Alamoti, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.53/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.87/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 6 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 206m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 43 | 32 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 752m/g | 763m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 80.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 7 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 472m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91.5% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.43) -5% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.45) -7% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.68) +38% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 3/14g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 14/28g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/12g | 8/15g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 15/61g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/22g | 9/78g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 19% | — | — |
| 15 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/16g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daine Laurie | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 8 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·3·1·0) | 2/2g | 4/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 5/11g | 28% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/7g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 7 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 11 | Luke Garner | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/21g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 12 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Mavrik Geyer | Replacement | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1370 · Panthers 1567 · ELO difference: 197 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1122 (best 1285) | 1114 (best 1363) | Eels +7 |
| Backs | 1159 (best 1200) | 1063 (best 1105) | Eels +96 |
| Halves | 1195 (best 1195) | 1265 (best 1265) | Panthers +70 |
| Hooker | 600 | 1094 | Panthers +494 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Panthers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)